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re: Is there a reason LSU is 2 point underdogs tomorrow at home vs A&M?
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:09 pm to GCTiger11
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:09 pm to GCTiger11
The oddsmakers don’t just sit around and make subjective guesses on games based upon what they watch. They have data driven analytical (numerical) predictive power ratings. Similar, but not quite exactly like KenPom, Sargain, etc.
The analytical data suggests A&M is a top 40 team. LSU is in the 80’s. Ole Miss, for example was in the 70’s going into Wednesday night despite being ranked 22 in the human polls. The oddsmakers don’t care, at all, about the human polls. They simply trust their own data.
That data predicts A&M is 5-7 points better than LSU right now. LSU as the home team gets anywhere from 4-6 points added to their predictive number. Therefore, you get a line of LSU (+1 or +2)
The analytical data suggests A&M is a top 40 team. LSU is in the 80’s. Ole Miss, for example was in the 70’s going into Wednesday night despite being ranked 22 in the human polls. The oddsmakers don’t care, at all, about the human polls. They simply trust their own data.
That data predicts A&M is 5-7 points better than LSU right now. LSU as the home team gets anywhere from 4-6 points added to their predictive number. Therefore, you get a line of LSU (+1 or +2)
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