re: “Rates will come down, just re-fi then.” Why do people keep saying this in today’s world?

True

Plus the flood of buyers waiting for opportunity is likely overstated. FRED data on historical rates of home ownership shows we're above, not below, the historical average.

And the affordability data are extremely stretched. We'd be fine with current (or higher) interest rates if home prices as a multiple of income were lower. They are not. Case-Shiller home price index is over 300 in 2023 (several multiples above the 80s and 90s).

This is a new phenomenon since the 2000s when homes began to be treated not just as a durable place to live but more and more as an investment vehicle. That change in philosophy combined with aggressive lending and the mortgage backed securities industry have increased speculation and undermined the stability and affordability of the American housing market.

I'm seeing some mistakes by young friends right now that make me worry the 30 year olds buying now just don't understand the wood chipper they are running into with the new builds they bought. And you can't entirely blame them. The NAR and politicians have captured the narrative and the basic data on affordability, rates of home ownership, rates of second home ownership are being passed over in favor of a NAR created housing gap that doesn't exist in the FRED or CS data.