re: The actual upcoming real estate crisis. CRE loans and vacant office buildings

My guess is that any residential crash will be more localized then 2008 unless there is a systemic breakdown for the financial system and basically no bank will lend. You would see major corporate defaults and bankruptcies and tons of job loss for that to happen. No one should be rooting that on.

2008 was a nationwide crash, but there have been many other housing recessions that have tended to hurt some regions worse than others. 2008 also had the issue of a lot more inventory available, so the crash was deeper and more long lasting.

With the amount of migration going on these days, places in the sunbelt are less likely to see a major crash then somewhere like San Francisco or Chicago.

If there is a major crash/recession/depression, we would definitely see a lowering of interest rates. Trying to time that or predict where rates would end up would be a fools errand.