re: Will the S&P finish the year

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Overly bearish sentiment/positioning and positive earnings surprises for Q3.

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Fair enough. I see the spike in PPI over the last few months making positive earnings more difficult, but Lord knows I have been wrong before.

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I also think its highly unlikely we see a true recession until the labor market falls apart

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100% agree. JPow has stated that an increase in Unemployment is one of the big indicators they are looking for to signal pause/reversal on rates. I think we've seen too much borrowing and spending (and borrowing to pay for borrowing) for that to not end up being a snowballing effect (ie: once jobs start being cut, consumers are no longer going to be able to afford to even just service all of the debt they've created).