re: New head to head poll: Trump 54 | DeSantis 46

His progress is he is working the ground game and building bridges in the early states, especially Iowa. People forget that Trump was up by 11 points in the last Iowa poll prior to getting crushed by Cruz and DeSantis has a much more organized and better funded organization than Cruz. It's a Caucus state. DeSantis understands that if he wins Iowa everything changes. Trump isn't inevitable and he has to fight against a guy that has far more money and far better organization than he does. He can't just rely on inevitability. Trump may still win for sure but it's going to be a dogfight. The "others" will also be pressured to drop out pretty quickly and they won't have any money except Vivek who is just a Trump surrogate.

Of course on the flip side if Ron loses Iowa bigly he's done.

These national polls are great for banter but they have little to do with the bigger picture outside of how they might impact the folks in Iowa and NH.

This race is Obama vs Hillary in terms of how it sets up and DeSantis is literally following Obama's plan and Trump looks eerily similar to Hillary in '07/8. Obama was down 30 into December, then he surprised in Iowa and suddenly it was a race. Of course there are things about this race that are different than that one as well but it is definitely the most similar from a political science perspective.