re: This is what I think the final CFP poll will look like if LSU wins out.

Worst case scenario for an LSU team that wins out:

Michigan defeats Ohio St. in a close game. Michigan jumps to #2 and Ohio St. drops to #4 or #5, but stays ahead of LSU who does not get to move up based on its remaining regular season schedule, it needs TCU or Oregon to lose. Without those losses, then you could get:

LSU defeats #1 Georgia in SEC Championship, bumping Michigan to #1, undefeated TCU to #2, Georgia drops to #3, Ohio St. to #4 based on a close lose to the now #1 Michigan. A two loss LSU gets left on the doorstep as the Big 10 gets its miracle scenario to get two teams in the playoffs instead of the SEC getting two teams.

Thus, a one-loss Ohio St. team acts as a buffer to keep LSU out. A one-loss Michigan team would not cause the same problem for LSU.

All that being said, I do not see Michigan beating Ohio St., nor do I believe TCU continues to run the table. This late in the year, there always seems to be an injury to a key player that ends up flipping the script on one of the expected outcome games, so while fun to go through this “what if” scenario, it’s still too early to do so!