re: Is October when the bottom falls out of the market?

There will be bounces, but the trend will definitely be downward for at least the rest of the year.

Earnings reports will start coming out next week, many will likely be lower than consensus. Q3 GDP will be down, that report will drive the market lower. Durable goods will likely be down, driving the market lower.

CPI will be... tricky. It's going to be tough for YoY CPI to go up as we get into comparing this year to last year's rapid increase (if that increases, we're truly in shitsville), so the real focus (for the time being) will be on MoM.

Energy is still high (electricity & natural gas) and food has continued to spike. While oil and gas have dropped quite a bit, I don't know if it's enough to offset the other growth. If it comes down to housing prices, I think CPI could be slightly up (due to home prices actually being based on rent equivalence and rents are going up). If MoM is flat or negative, the market will respond very favorably. If it's positive (which I think is likely) then the market moves downward (the higher the increase, the deeper the drop).

Strangely, if Unemployment rises it may be a positive for the market (I think sharply rising unemployment is one of the signals the Fed is looking for to pause rate hikes).

If the Fed pauses (from the emergency meeting on Monday), the bulls will run for a bit, but it's going to be just another bounce which will be derailed once Q3 numbers start coming in.

Get your SQQQ ready.