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As a centuries old precept, Ukraine fell traditionally within the Russian sphere. Geographically, it is "Belgium of the east," a crossroads borderland of traversable plains used by massive European armies to attack Russia over the centuries. (As an aside, that is not similarly true of Finland, or the Baltics).

The world doesn’t operate by spheres of influence anymore.

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Russia instinctively yearns to maintain those 'borderlands' within its sphere as a buffer against future western incursion. By hook or crook, or savagery, or sword, the Russian psyche has always been focused on maintaining "the borderlands" as a buffer.

There is ‘instinct’ here or even a need for using land as a buffer. It is so supremely idiotic to base FP decisions on that notion. It is a specific, outdated, myopic foreign policy goal and should be resisted by everyone. We’ve found another better way around that, through economic integration, which has done wonders for the geopolitics of continental Europe.

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Ukraine was drawn to the allure though. Western riches! Join the EU! NATO! In no time, Kyiv would become the Paris of the east. So began an expanding game of Ukrainian footsie with Europe and the US.

But here's the cold reality: In 2010, when Yanukovych was elected, Ukrainian trade looked like this: Exports: Russian Federation $13,432M (26%), Turkey $3,027M (6%), Italy $2,412M (5%), Belarus $1,899M (4%), Poland $1,787M (3%). Imports: Russian Federation $22,198M (37%), China $4,700M (8%), Germany $4,603M (8%), Poland $2,789M (5%), Belarus $2,568M (4%)

This is so nonsensical, it beggars belief. What happened to the GDP of countries like Poland after joining the EU?

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After Zelenskyy's election, Putin and he met. Putin was unimpressed. His predator-prey perceptions of undisciplined Ukrainian weakness deepened.

When Zelenskyy got drawn into NATO conversations with Biden, it was spark to kindling. Putin assumed he would quickly bitchslap some sense back into Ukraine with sweeping military force.

This isn’t close to being an accurate rendition of events.

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But regarding Ukraine, had Ukraine known then what they do now, would they also have made different decisions?

From all indications, they would have attempted to join NATO quicker. Because there isn’t a net benefit for Ukrainians themselves for remaining in Russia’s orbit.