re: Given that coaching hires are such a crap shoot...

IMO, there are three right ways to do this:

1) Offer big contracts to grab a coach with real results. Coaches in this category include: Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Kirby Smart, and Ryan Day.

2) Offer smaller contracts to grab a coach who hasn't proven himself, like: Dan Lanning, Lane Kiffin, Brian Kelly, and Josh Heupel.

3) Offer opportunity contracts to coaches from smaller schools or who are OC/DCs, like: Jon Sumerall, Brent Key, Kenny Dillingham, and Joe Brady.

We screwed up last hire offering a 1-type contract to a 2-type coach. We are likely going to repeat that mistake if we go after Lane. "But how are we going to get a Lanning or a Kiffin here if we don't offer them big?" That's the point. You don't. There's no value in it. The only viable strategies in the current market are 1) and 3).