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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:59 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:59 am to rds dc
Some minor changes on 12z GFS that could end up being significant if things trend this way over future runs. System is slightly west and the upper level pattern is slightly shifted east. This puts 99L closer to being under the Gulf anitcyclone and not being completely shredded by it.
1
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:02 am to Scoop
quote:Except the sat. motion loops don't show any circulation.
Looks like it is trying to get itself together this morning.
I personally think the system won't develop into a tropical system until it moves into the Gulf, if then.
Its proximity to Cuba, Bahamas and later on, Florida, will inhibit its ability to develop a surface circulation, IMO.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:02 am to rds dc
GFS takes it into Florida, hopefully recon goes in later today or tomorrow to sample the atmosphere models are still all over yesterday was a westward shift today is an eastern shift
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:02 am to lockthevaught
In my opinion, this is the last day this system has to get its act together. After today, I think we will have a good idea of what this thing is going to do.
From what I can tell from looking at the satellite this morning...the storm is producing some deep convection and there seems to be a weak closed circulation.
From what I can tell from looking at the satellite this morning...the storm is producing some deep convection and there seems to be a weak closed circulation.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:08 am to LSURussian
quote:
Except the sat. motion loops don't show any circulation.
The last frame or two of the sat images I was looking at earlier hinted at some possible circulation trying to begin.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:10 am to lockthevaught
quote:I know I've paid more attention to this one for two reasons: 1) August usually produces the strongest storms, and 2) the recent torrential rains and flooding in our immediate area has made me more sensitive to possible subsequent rain events, such as a strong tropical system coming our way.
Yeah I've never watched an invest as close as I've watched this one.
I usually don't give tropical systems a thought until one enters or forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:12 am
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:10 am to Scoop
quote:I tried to see what you're seeing and I just don't see it.
The last frame or two of the sat images I was looking at earlier hinted at some possible circulation trying to begin.
ETA: Here is what I've been looking at linked on the previous page...
The low pressure system just off the Texas coast definitely has a discernible circulation much more so than 99L.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:22 am
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:19 am to lockthevaught
It has done that every day for the past few days then just dies out later in the day...
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:19 am to LSURussian
quote:
ETA: Here is what I've been looking out linked on the previous page...
Coolest part about that satellite loop is that you can see the terminator moving from East to West. Night on the left side of it, day on the right.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:20 am
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:20 am to deuce985
there looks to be a twist to the Southwest of South Andros Island
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:25 am to lsuman25
It's actually a positive for Louisiana if it gets their act together today right? Because it would more support the Euro model where it strengthens a bit and hits the weak side going straight up to Florida due to strengthening? If it stays weak very good bet it will stay on a westward track? I'm confused as to why the models that have it going west in the GOM have it so weak by the time it hits land. Seems like it would strengthen fast but of course I don't know much about this.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:29 am to deuce985
quote:I hope someone can explain how the strength of a system alters the direction of its movement.
It's actually a positive for Louisiana if it gets their act together today right? Because it would more support the Euro model where it strengthens a bit and hits the weak side going straight up to Florida due to strengthening? If it stays weak very good bet it will stay on a westward track?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:30 am to deuce985
At this point i don't even know what to tell you 
but yea if it stays weak it would most likely move more west although the caveat is the upper level low swinging down to the southwest which could erode the ridge.
but yea if it stays weak it would most likely move more west although the caveat is the upper level low swinging down to the southwest which could erode the ridge.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:34 am to lsuman25
UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.6N 82.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 48 24.8N 83.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 30.08.2016 60 24.8N 84.8W 1005 25
1200UTC 30.08.2016 72 25.0N 86.3W 1004 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 84 24.9N 87.0W 1002 26
1200UTC 31.08.2016 96 25.5N 87.6W 1000 39
0000UTC 01.09.2016 108 25.9N 87.6W 994 42
1200UTC 01.09.2016 120 26.1N 87.4W 983 56
0000UTC 02.09.2016 132 27.0N 86.9W 976 64
1200UTC 02.09.2016 144 28.2N 86.0W 969 71
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.6N 82.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 48 24.8N 83.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 30.08.2016 60 24.8N 84.8W 1005 25
1200UTC 30.08.2016 72 25.0N 86.3W 1004 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 84 24.9N 87.0W 1002 26
1200UTC 31.08.2016 96 25.5N 87.6W 1000 39
0000UTC 01.09.2016 108 25.9N 87.6W 994 42
1200UTC 01.09.2016 120 26.1N 87.4W 983 56
0000UTC 02.09.2016 132 27.0N 86.9W 976 64
1200UTC 02.09.2016 144 28.2N 86.0W 969 71
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:36 am to LSURussian
quote:
how the strength of a system alters the direction of its movement.
Normally, a weaker storm moves east/west unless stearing dictates otherwise, while stronger storms tend to go towards the poles North/South. I think, anyway. Lol
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:46 am to LSURussian
The stronger the system, the better it will feel the weakness in the high pressure from the ULL and move north. There's more there in the mid and upper levels to feel the pull.
Of course, I think this is academic. That ULL riding the edge of the ridge is going to keep the sheer up going forward and really limits any potential for much development. IMHO
Of course, I think this is academic. That ULL riding the edge of the ridge is going to keep the sheer up going forward and really limits any potential for much development. IMHO
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:47 am to dukesilver72
Nothing to worry about........to be continued.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:06 pm to rds dc
I'm kind of surprised the 2pm update only put it up to a 30%. There's starting to be some signs of circulation in the upper levels and the models are starting to get bullish again. Still a lot of waiting and seeing.
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