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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:37 pm to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41500 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:37 pm to
landfall near Pensacola looks like
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

What is Euro thinking


Hurricane?
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36706 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:38 pm to
25 that would still be to the East of me. We're around Vermilion Bay area. Evacuations are part of the norm around here for hurricanes and it's no fun and takes time. I'm not worried at this point but I did ask my husband to get the generator checked out and ready "in case".
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

quote:

What is Euro thinking




Hurricane?


pretty much the same thing it's been thinking all along
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41500 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:40 pm to
Yea, euro hooks it northeast towards Pensacola but it gets close, gonna be a nerve racking week until the models get a better grip on this system
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:40 pm to
Is it at all possible for GOM to develop some unfavorable conditions at any point next few days for development?
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36706 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:41 pm to
I just want to have harvest done and rice in the bins. Much less stress that way for us personally!

I wish this would die already.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41500 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:44 pm to
I hope it dies also
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42375 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:45 pm to
Well, this is certainly an interesting change. Not sure I buy it given the flip flopping of the Euro with this system, but it is making me play very close attention again.
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:45 pm to
quote:


Is it at all possible for GOM to develop some unfavorable conditions at any point next few days for development?


GFS quickly develops an east>west steering flow that pushes the system out faster than it can become a cyclone. It's developing this pattern faster than any other model which is why it's the most bearish once 99l gets into the gulf. I think that flow is going to determine both how strong the storm becomes and where it eventually ends up.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 1:46 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:46 pm to


Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

landfall near Pensacola looks like
Isn't that what Peej predicted about 50 pages ago???

ETA: Here is his early prediction:

"IF it makes the GOM, it hits the panhandle." - Peej, 8/24/16

Another sign the Apocalypse is near.....
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 2:06 pm
Posted by burdman
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2007
20685 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:47 pm to
Yep
Posted by tigersownall
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2011
15321 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:51 pm to
Get gas in the boat now if that's the case.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
20893 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:57 pm to
Yikes. That's a nasty curve. I don't know if I have enough faith in that to not gtfo.

Might have to have a combo with the folks about the their plans this week.
Posted by Costanza
Member since May 2011
3151 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:58 pm to
Well hell, that path doesn't look good for me. If it gets to 963mb as that model suggests, what category storm is that typically?
Posted by RazorBroncs
Harding Bisons Fan
Member since Sep 2013
13540 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 2:00 pm to


12z Euro doing god's work for the people of LA.

Here's the 192 hrs out frame:



Would be devastating for the FL panhandle, Mobile, and far north of those areas if this run turns out remotely true. The good news is that it looks to knock on the door of LA, then decides it would rather have a beach trip at the last moment.

*** The commentary above in no way represents ANY kind of forecast or track, it is simply commentary on the above run ***
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 2:07 pm
Posted by Breesus
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
66982 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 2:01 pm to
What happened to those easy to read graphs with all the lines?
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 2:01 pm to
Yeah, I don't like how these models are starting to trend to strengthening which might be because today it's possibly getting its act together. When does that guy on Tropical Tidbits do his update? I'd be interested to see what he has to say. Yesterday he said depending on what it does it could shift it up Florida's coast like that. He was talking about that little system around Carolina.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 2:03 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42375 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 2:01 pm to
Man, the HWRF solution would be worst case scenario for Tampa.
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