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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
A bit of a westward shift on the 18z early models. Getting pretty close to Florida, esp. if the NW turn showm on the Euro and UK spreads to the other models. [img]http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2016/al142016/track_early/aal14_2016092918_track_early.png[/img]...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
The ULL drops to the SW of the system and a ridge builds over the top. This turns it back to the NW about a week from now but the next trough is able to kick it back out before landfall....
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote] How long is this shear supposed to keep up, and does it move further west if it stays weaker?[/quote] Shear is stronger than expected this morning but shear was forecast to be an issue over the next day or so. It is supposed to relax near the time the system turns north. I'm not sure wha...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
12z GFS trends westward early and ends up west overall with landfall in NC. Then moves up the coast. [img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092912/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_30.png[/img] ...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote] Yep, eastward ho, here we go!! Looks like shear is much stronger than expected too. Pretty typical of these last few seasons. I'm beginning to think that global warming is somehow having the opposite effect that everyone thought it would on tropical storm development (I've heard/read that e...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote]Due to its remarkable consistency for a while now, I believe the GFS will be right and this thing [/quote] It looks the overnight runs of the GFS trended towards the Euro in the short term with a bit slower movement and later turn north but the Euro trended towards the GFS in the medium ra...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
Pretty steady short term SW trend on the last 3 GFS runs through 72 hrs....
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
Some OT ballers boat didn't make it through the day down in Barbados [img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CteSh8LVMAAshNm.jpg[/img]...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
Looks like the 18z GFS & HWRF are going to end up too strong and too far north in the short range. [img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ctfb8q-UIAAQYX9.jpg[/img] ...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote]Avila is my favorite, he is always colorful with his wording in the advisories.[/quote] Yeah, I think that last part is code word for, "if we bust majorly on this, F you!" :lol:...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
000 WTNT44 KNHC 290251 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 Matthew crossed a portion of the Lesser Antilles today, and tropical-storm-force winds were experienced in various islands for seve...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
Recon for this evening: [img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF303-0314A-MATTHEW.png[/img] ...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote]I know improvements on tracking have increased for D3 - D5, but has there been any evidence that we've gotten better for so far out in time?[/quote] The NHC does an internal forecast out to D7. They don't officially post this but they do coordinate with WPC on the 7 day forecast. This is f...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
Slowly getting better organized with recon showing a LLC that doesn't look as sloppy as this morning but it is still on the western edge of the convection. This suggest that the LLC is still a little out ahead of the mid level spin. [img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-animated.gif[/...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote] looking at the cyclone risk data, it's remarkable how much more the GFS has locked in as opposed to the Euro... GFS says no chance of a central/western gulf landfall while Euro keeps the door wide open even if it isn't actually the operational track[/quote] Yea, the agreement and consist...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote] gonna be a interesting one to track for the next week that is for sure[/quote] Typically, the data from the Global Hawk missions help clear things up but not sure it will this time given that so many of the questions revolve around far flung features. ...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
Spread increased on the 12z Euro EPS but a significant cluster moving into Gulf at D9: [img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016092812/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_watl_10.png[/img]...
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re: Storm Tracking - Hurricane Matthew Potential US Threat - rds dc
[quote] Those cutoff lows keep diving[/quote] This 12z Euro run has cutoffs everywhere! There is about a 48hr window after D7 where the system could either get turned back into the Gulf from east of Florida or go out to sea. Just crazy looking run beyond D5....
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