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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:07 pm to
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166247 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:07 pm to
I just don't want a cat 3 or greater to start barreling down somewhere
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41494 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:08 pm to
Euro trending stronger on this run, seems more west also (for the record i don't want it to get stronger and go more west sorry if i sounded excited believe i am not)
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 1:12 pm
Posted by LSU1NSEC
Member since Sep 2007
17243 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

I just don't want a cat 3 or greater to start barreling down somewhere


yep, preparing for TS,1,2 is whole different world than cat 3
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

The stronger the system, the better it will feel the weakness in the high pressure from the ULL and move north. There's more there in the mid and upper levels to feel the pull.
Posted by SlapahoeTribe
Tiger Nation
Member since Jul 2012
12096 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

preparing for TS,1,2 is whole different world than cat 3

I'm from South-Central Louisiana, a TS, 1, or 2 is just kite weather.
Cat 3 - find a buddy with a generator and plan a party.
Cat 4 - might actually want to prepare a little for this one (translation: buy extra alcohol)
Cat 5 - "frick, I just finished building that deer stand!"
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
66435 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:26 pm to
What happened to the shear that was supposed to destroy this thing?
Posted by LakeViewLSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2009
17730 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:27 pm to
In these threads you can always tell who doesn't own property.
Posted by LSU1NSEC
Member since Sep 2007
17243 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:27 pm to
12z euro looks nasty
Posted by Wishnitwas1998
where TN, MS, and AL meet
Member since Oct 2010
58204 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:28 pm to
My understanding has been that it was always going to weaken around yesterday and I guess it did so
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:29 pm to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41494 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:31 pm to
Do not like this run at all
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:33 pm to
Mannn just give up. What is Euro thinking

Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36706 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:33 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 1:34 pm
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
75195 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:34 pm to
It's taking it to Mobile area?
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:34 pm to
quote:


What happened to the shear that was supposed to destroy this thing?




the shear was thursday and friday, and it did do a number on the system.

late friday into today were when it was supposed to really kick off development and it definitely has been trying to... Today is kind of a critical day for the storm.. if it can't sustain convection today then it's time to really assess what's been going wrong with the bullish guidance
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36706 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:34 pm to
rds still made me nervous but Geauxmedics MOVING model made me feel better with that curve to the NE.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:35 pm to
Goddammit. I just have a bad feeling this thing is going to trend far west, strengthen, then put it right in Louisiana's pooper. I just don't understand how the models think it's not going to be a major hurricane if it does follow that path...

The conditions look to the most favorable in GOM than anywhere else for rapid development, right?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41494 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:36 pm to
gotta wait for the next frame but that looks almost due north to me we shall see though
Posted by SlapahoeTribe
Tiger Nation
Member since Jul 2012
12096 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

these threads you can always tell who doesn't own property.

300+ acres, house, and barn.

I've been through it all.

I've been royally fricked over by an unnamed storm; I've weathered a Cat 4/5 like a spring rain.

I've survived major floods without a drop of water in my house; I've seen an average rain do $30k of damage.

One thing I've come to realize over the past few decades is that the category of storm has very little translation to the damage I can expect/prepare for.
Posted by LSU1NSEC
Member since Sep 2007
17243 posts
Posted on 8/27/16 at 1:37 pm to
EURO/HWRF/UKMET/GEM have 99L to hurricane strength in the Gulf

wait and see what happens
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