re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

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Any of the people trained in meteorology want to opine on Thursday's threat?

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At first glance at the discussion, hail could be a big issue. Never good for the overnight risk.

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There’s going to be some nasty F-5’s this year.

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I hope not.

We haven't had an (official) EF5 since 2013. To say there will be "some" EF5s is certainly a comment.

ETA: I literally knocked on wood after I made this post.

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Please don’t use this moron. He is wrong every time and is nothing but a fear monger. When he is wrong he does his “Dave Meltzer” impression: “things changed”. I know you know the reference rt3

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I completely disagree with your assessment... I have found his posts to be nothing but reasonable and attempts to tamp down fear

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want to opine on Thursday's threat?

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Im working on a deep dive that should be done tomorrow afternoon, but the short version is storms should remain elevated through the night, really limiting the tornado risk. High winds and hail look the main threat.

Still waiting on the rest high res stuff to come in to iron out details but the NAM tonight didnt have much organized. Not much of a focus but for the incoming cold front.

Of course dude.

Working on the images to go with the post tonight and waiting for a few sets of runs tomorrow morning to have an in-depth blog post.

Threads for fronts. Geeze

We need rain badly. My husband is a rice farmer and we and the farmers south of us are running into water issues .. lack of and salty. As of now I think we’re only planting half of what we normally plant.

Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
·
20m
It's hard to believe, but the 1.04" of rain at
@BTRairport
yesterday was the most we've picked up in 87 days.

More opportunities for drought relief ahead on Friday and again early next week. Unfortunately, both also come with a threat of severe weather.

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It's definitely time to have your plan in place

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Just what exactly is a tornado plan....wake up and run???

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We need rain badly. My husband is a rice farmer and we and the farmers south of us are running into water issues .. lack of and salty. As of now I think we’re only planting half of what we normally plant.

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The Thursday/Friday system isnt going to help much Im afraid. Any rain is good, of course, but this doesnt look to bring widespread heavy rain to the area.

Next week looks a little better in rainfall terms.