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Started By
Message
re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3
Posted on 3/25/22 at 5:47 pm to Duke
Posted on 3/25/22 at 5:47 pm to Duke
Wednesday could be significant and more widespread than this last one if models keep trending the way they are
I’ll be driving back from Venice, La Wednesday morning from a fishing trip. I could come back Tuesday night and get home late as shite. Might be better to do that
quote:
Low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching the OK/KS border vicinity on D4/Tuesday and mid 60s dewpoints likely in place across the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South on D5/Wednesday. The combination of buoyancy and lift is expected to result in thunderstorm development. Additionally, the moderate southerly low-level flow beneath the strong mid-level southwesterly flow result in supercell wind profiles both on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Greatest severe potential on D5/Tuesday currently appears to be from northwest TX across western/central OK into central/eastern KS. Greatest severe potential on D6/Wednesday is from the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists. As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist.
I’ll be driving back from Venice, La Wednesday morning from a fishing trip. I could come back Tuesday night and get home late as shite. Might be better to do that
0
Posted on 3/25/22 at 6:22 pm to Duke
Not today, Duke, I have a headache.
Posted on 3/25/22 at 6:39 pm to LegendInMyMind
Already made a blog post about it.
Here's the summary:
Here's the summary:
Posted on 3/25/22 at 6:51 pm to Duke
quote:
Already made a blog post about it.
That Low is going to make all the difference with this one. Certainly could have the makings of a significant threat, particularly if that Low drifts SE a bit.
I don't like these setups with the negative tilt and the chances of that low being farther South. We can get some stout severe days out of setups like this.
Posted on 3/25/22 at 7:11 pm to Duke
Big marsh fire south of Lake Charles
Posted on 3/25/22 at 7:22 pm to The Boat
Thicc fire.
Posted on 3/25/22 at 7:31 pm to Duke
How long can marsh fires like that burn?
Posted on 3/25/22 at 8:42 pm to The Boat
How can a marsh burn like that after all the rain we just got?
Posted on 3/25/22 at 8:55 pm to Duke
quote:
Already made a blog post about it.
Here's the summary:
I'll let you start that thread Duke
apparently I'm bad luck for my hometown
Posted on 3/25/22 at 10:39 pm to rt3
quote:
I'll let you start that thread Duke
Im just the worst OP though.
I'll probably start it tomorrow if we keep the model trends going this direction. Plus, it'll annoy WaWaWeeWa.
Posted on 3/25/22 at 11:10 pm to Duke
quote:
Plus, it'll annoy WaWaWeeWa.
Well, in that case....have at it, baw.
Posted on 3/25/22 at 11:14 pm to Duke
quote:
Plus, it'll annoy WaWaWeeWa.
but Duke... these weather threads are what all the decision makers rely on to make the decisions like will we cancel school!!!!!
Posted on 3/25/22 at 11:59 pm to deltaland
quote:
but Duke... these weather threads are what all the decision makers rely on to make the decisions like will we cancel school!!!!!
quote:
How can a marsh burn like that after all the rain we just got?
Not being a French halfbreed I’d like to know the answer to this question as well, what starts them?
Posted on 3/26/22 at 10:03 am to Duke
Todays update is not encouraging
quote:
Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations.
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