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Message
2
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:26 am to notiger1997
Remember a few years ago when it was like 35 and drizzling for Rex?
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:29 am to TigerDude80
Who do you ride in?
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:32 am to Duke
quote:
Remember a few years ago when it was like 35 and drizzling for Rex?
We do Bonnabel for Mardi Gras day and I remember that. My kids didn't give a damn and were out there getting bombed with full bags of crap and every toy and stuff animal on the float.
There was nobody out there with us for 50 yards on either side.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:35 am to notiger1997
Friday looks like its clearing up and I probably just jinxed it.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:52 am to oVo
Thoth
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:53 am to Duke
quote:
Remember a few years ago when it was like 35 and drizzling for Rex?
God that day fricking sucked
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:55 am to notiger1997
So let's take a look at the big picture.
Storms from last night (sidebar: surprisingly stout storms and even the short range models didn't show the extent of them five hours before they were in BR) are moving out to the east.
Now look at all the stuff blowing in over Baja California, that energy is all eventually blowing our way. Just little disturbance after little disturbance riding in on that, tucking under a cold high pressure that will be dropping into the upper midwest over the next couple of days.
Now for tonight:
3km NAM has scattered storms all around New Orleans tonight. Moving NE, but does seem to be moving out for parade time and kind of just miss NOLA to the west. No margin for error there, says bring a rain jacket but I don't expect rainout from this.
The HRRR is our other short range model of choice. It keeps the rain farther north, just a light rain at 6 tonight for NOLA and a pretty good parade night after. Same storm movement, NE.
Check your radars at 4 pm though. If you see significantly more rain than this to the SW:
Consider that it's probably going to be rainy and a little stormy tonight.
Finally, what LIX has for you.
MCS is just a blog of semi organized convection, think blob of rain and storms. They seem to be leaning toward New Orleans missing the bulk of it.
TL;DR: It's a coinflip on rain in NOLA tonight, I'm leaning toward the bulk of rain missing the city and it being a little soggy but a decent parade night. This shite isn't what I'd call "high confidence" and check the radar through the afternoon. A lot of rain and lightning SW of NOLA by mid afternoon is not a good sign.
I'll update when I feel like it this afternoon.
Storms from last night (sidebar: surprisingly stout storms and even the short range models didn't show the extent of them five hours before they were in BR) are moving out to the east.
Now look at all the stuff blowing in over Baja California, that energy is all eventually blowing our way. Just little disturbance after little disturbance riding in on that, tucking under a cold high pressure that will be dropping into the upper midwest over the next couple of days.
Now for tonight:
3km NAM has scattered storms all around New Orleans tonight. Moving NE, but does seem to be moving out for parade time and kind of just miss NOLA to the west. No margin for error there, says bring a rain jacket but I don't expect rainout from this.
The HRRR is our other short range model of choice. It keeps the rain farther north, just a light rain at 6 tonight for NOLA and a pretty good parade night after. Same storm movement, NE.
Check your radars at 4 pm though. If you see significantly more rain than this to the SW:
Consider that it's probably going to be rainy and a little stormy tonight.
Finally, what LIX has for you.
quote:
Absolute mess of a weather pattern. Very wet conditions, but fortunately the rainfall is spread out over time and space with a large MCS feature. Conditions expected to remain wet especially for south shore areas today. The strongest instability is slowly moving east and offshore this morning. This is also where the most vigourous supercells are located at the moment. Another MCS feature is expected to develop again near the Toledo Bend Reservoir area of western Lousiana and move east through the night hours affecting our area once again tonight. Most of tonights rain
looks to stay farther north than where it is occurring this morning.
MCS is just a blog of semi organized convection, think blob of rain and storms. They seem to be leaning toward New Orleans missing the bulk of it.
TL;DR: It's a coinflip on rain in NOLA tonight, I'm leaning toward the bulk of rain missing the city and it being a little soggy but a decent parade night. This shite isn't what I'd call "high confidence" and check the radar through the afternoon. A lot of rain and lightning SW of NOLA by mid afternoon is not a good sign.
I'll update when I feel like it this afternoon.
This post was edited on 2/27/19 at 9:57 am
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:59 am to oVo
quote:
My frog togs will be ready
Poor.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 10:21 am to TigerDude80
Posted on 2/27/19 at 10:46 am to LSUintheNW
What’s poor about frog togs?
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:14 pm to oVo
Looking ahead to Sunday, it's trending wet and potentially stormy. For all my talk about no thunderstorms being likely, it seems the atmosphere disagrees. Won't be the last time.
First off, the front.
There's greater agreement of our cold front coming through Sunday night. The image above shows cold air advection, the lateral movement of cold air, at about Bacchus roll time. It's the lead up to the front passage that is of concern, since it's trending toward being more supportive of thunderstorms.
GFS sounding for around New Orleans at noon Sunday. There's some instability to suggest convection (heavier rains and potential lightning). This doesn't mean a blanket of storms but I'd think scattered storms with marginal severe potential. Going to keep a close eye on this.
Another sign of the rain potential shows up looking at the lower level and upper level winds. There's some lower level convergence (air coming in toward the same point) which brings in a source of warm moist air. Then the uppers...
You'll notice how the streamlines start going off in different directions and the speed loses intensity along SELa over NE toward the MS coast. You've got divergence aloft, providing a means of pushing what lifts out and away. This can enhance rainfall in the area.
I'll note it doesn't mean it will happen, just potential to be mindful of going forward. These sorts of details are far form set in stone, so be mindful. Still room to change over the next few days.
First off, the front.
There's greater agreement of our cold front coming through Sunday night. The image above shows cold air advection, the lateral movement of cold air, at about Bacchus roll time. It's the lead up to the front passage that is of concern, since it's trending toward being more supportive of thunderstorms.
GFS sounding for around New Orleans at noon Sunday. There's some instability to suggest convection (heavier rains and potential lightning). This doesn't mean a blanket of storms but I'd think scattered storms with marginal severe potential. Going to keep a close eye on this.
Another sign of the rain potential shows up looking at the lower level and upper level winds. There's some lower level convergence (air coming in toward the same point) which brings in a source of warm moist air. Then the uppers...
You'll notice how the streamlines start going off in different directions and the speed loses intensity along SELa over NE toward the MS coast. You've got divergence aloft, providing a means of pushing what lifts out and away. This can enhance rainfall in the area.
I'll note it doesn't mean it will happen, just potential to be mindful of going forward. These sorts of details are far form set in stone, so be mindful. Still room to change over the next few days.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:16 pm to TigerDude80
quote:
Thoth
See you in the crowded den on Sunday morning, I'll be the guy probably drinking a beer.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:17 pm to Duke
Well hell. I hope that changes for Sunday
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:20 pm to notiger1997
It's all still a shifting forecast. We'll see how the NWS feels about 3-4 with their forecast discussion. They e got better tools and a wealth of additional knowledge and experience I don't.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:22 pm to gjackx
What floats you fellas on? 14 here
This post was edited on 2/27/19 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:24 pm to oVo
How many of us in here ride in Thoth?
I will have a few drinks at the Hilton. I don’t drink much in the ride because it’s such a pain in the arse to have to go piss
I will have a few drinks at the Hilton. I don’t drink much in the ride because it’s such a pain in the arse to have to go piss
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:25 pm to Duke
Friggin crazy arse weather, the sun is out it’s beautiful.. Warm enough to kick my attic vent on..
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:26 pm to oVo
quote:
What’s poor about frog togs?
They're shitty and cheap for a reason.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 2:27 pm to oVo
quote:
What floats you fellas on?
second half of 12 checking in
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