re: Mardi Gras Weather Thread

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I will have a few drinks at the Hilton

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I'll be there.

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I don’t drink much in the ride because it’s such a pain in the arse to have to go piss

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Yeah it's the worst.

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Can't say with any certainty, I'm not about to start timing this out. Only looking at the broad strokes at this point.

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I wonder if they would move all the sunday parades up a couple of hours, in order to try and get Bacchus in (if this is what will really happen)? It wouldn't be the first time they tried such a thing...

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I wonder if they would move all the sunday parades up a couple of hours, in order to try and get Bacchus in (if this is what will really happen)? It wouldn't be the first time they tried such a thing...

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Moving them up does no good, it's a storm potential until the front passes. We're rooting for a quicker frontal passage.

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Best guess on Endymion Saturday night?

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Similar scenario to Sunday but onset of potential is still tricky and likely scattered. Speculating right now, but moving everything a little earlier Saturday might be in the cards. Don't expect a rainout regardless. It's still a messy subtle set up, so just keep an eye on the forecast.

Onto tonight. I'll edit in the NWS discussion when it comes out, as they'll have a better technical explanation than I'm capable. I'll share my thoughts anyway.

Current Radar (should update in real time):



vs 18z NAM



It's got a pretty good handle on it, and the HRRR is busting. So I'm going to ride it for a "futurecast".

If it's correct, it's going to look bad with a big blob of storms rolling at New Orleans going into 5-6 pm. Then, it breaks down and the focus shifts for storms toward the River Parishes. Ends up showing a short lived rain/storm as the SE end decays around when the first parades start but then clears on out.

Fingers crossed but it's looking as good as you could hope for tonight.

Finally a note for Tuesday temps.

The cold front coming looks "shallow", meaning cold near the ground but warmer aloft. These cases are hell for models concerning surface temperature as they don't handle the dense airmass great. A great example is in Oklahoma today.

The GFS from Monday morning, looking out 54 hours:



Current temps:



The forecast highs are probably too high right now.

I will have to be the one to ask since every day was covered but Friday, how we looking?

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second half of 12 checking in

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Ha Ha so am I...

21 A

Earlier the better Saturday is my thought.

Saturday too is kind of a shitshow forecast wise. Maybe a little bit of energy rolls by and is a focus for showers in the afternoon or we could also see a weak warm front come out the gulf later in the day to be a focus for showers. Per the NWS discussion.

The basics going forward (and subject to change):

Tonight: Potential showers early but should yield once it gets dark. Storms more BR way eventually.

Tomorrow: More vigorous mass of storms midday into the evening. Timing is suspect at this point, dont be surprised to see it adjust. Going to be another run those real short range models to have an idea.

Friday: Looks dry for all the parades. Enjoy

Sat: Rain likely at some point, intensity and timing in the air.

Sun: Rain. Some storms. Marginal severe risk. The worst day.

Mon: Lower chances of showers. Colder. Highs in the 50s. North wind 15 mph.

Tues: Cold. Potentially in the 30s when Rex rolls. Rain chances look low.

Yes frick