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Posted on 2/26/19 at 1:37 pm to 610man
quote:
So right now, light and spotty rain for Saturday?
Saturday is the toughest part of the forecast. Looks to be between two cold fronts, timing for both suspect and a potential stall of the first one. I am thinking that yes, light and spotty for the rain is what happens but it's a low confidence forecast.
Sunday isn't much better, but the second front should push through by parade time.
The only good part is there's extremely low rainout potential no matter what the timing is.
Posted on 2/26/19 at 1:45 pm to Duke
As always Duke, you pretty much nail the forecast. I have to march with my kid Friday night in Metairie, other than dealing with the requisite hammerheads there, what should I be expecting weather wise that night?
Posted on 2/26/19 at 1:58 pm to Duke
quote:
Sunday isn't much better, but the second front should push through by parade time.
Posted on 2/26/19 at 2:07 pm to jlovel7
Gods judgement for that filth down there
Posted on 2/26/19 at 3:35 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
I have to march with my kid Friday night in Metairie, other than dealing with the requisite hammerheads there, what should I be expecting weather wise that night?
Currently, it looks pretty good. Temps in the upper 60s, light breeze. Rain chances are a coin flip but trending lower and nothing but light rain if it does come. As of now, it's shaping up to be the best night of the entire parade week. Now, models aren't really locked in so it's all subject to change.
Posted on 2/26/19 at 4:49 pm to Duke
Duke, seemed to have really changed in regards to Saturday and Sunday, what are your thoughts?
Posted on 2/26/19 at 5:27 pm to 610man
quote:
Duke, seemed to have really changed in regards to Saturday and Sunday, what are your thoughts?
The models are really struggling with the set up.
The thinking has shifted to not having a front stall potentially on Friday but instead having one big one push through Sunday. This presents a challenge since there will be a warm air surge coming in to meet the front, and thus can provide some actual instability for thunderstorms on Sunday to spite my thoughts from a few hours ago.
It's a really fricking tricky set up. The timing of the frontal passage is paramount for Sunday. The later in the day, the worse the rain and possible thunderstorm potential becomes.
Expect the forecast to keep shifting around. I wouldn't be surprised we're still pretty uncertain going into Friday.
Posted on 2/26/19 at 5:49 pm to Duke
Thanks, Duke. How does tomorrow (Wednesday) evening look?
I usually go set up shop on Napoleon, with my wife/kids meeting just prior to the parades.
It looks wet, just a matter of how wet, and when. Like the others, I appreciate the information.
I usually go set up shop on Napoleon, with my wife/kids meeting just prior to the parades.
It looks wet, just a matter of how wet, and when. Like the others, I appreciate the information.
Posted on 2/26/19 at 6:37 pm to Knox Harrington
I can’t do this shite again this year. May the gods shine down on Sunday.
Posted on 2/26/19 at 6:57 pm to oVo
Agreed, except Saturday for me
Posted on 2/26/19 at 6:59 pm to Knox Harrington
quote:
How does tomorrow (Wednesday) evening look?
The high res models are your friend, showing a round of showers early and another one in the early afternoon. Muddy neutral ground, but dry by parade time. We'll take another look in the morning to see, the computers have struggled even short range in the last day or two.
Posted on 2/26/19 at 8:08 pm to Duke
That will be great, hoping for a dry ride but it always rains on Druids. Now, if just Sunday can swing to dry or decent it will be great.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 12:15 am to Duke
Decent storm just swept through Bucktown. Loads of lightning. And more rain on the way to entire metro area overnight.
This dump alone should ensure swampy foot conditions for the next few days, and the ground was already wet.
Boo.
This dump alone should ensure swampy foot conditions for the next few days, and the ground was already wet.
Boo.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 12:16 am to Knox Harrington
Yeah it was pretty heavy around in metry
Posted on 2/27/19 at 8:44 am to Duke
How about a quick update Duke? I’m trying to decide between going tonight vs tomorrow night uptown.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 8:56 am to notiger1997
Yeah I'm stressing out about Sunday too. Thanks Duke...
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:08 am to TigerDude80
Too early to stress, forecast is changing every 5 minutes
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:13 am to oVo
Yeah I know. Just don't want it to rain on my parade. No pun intended.
Posted on 2/27/19 at 9:23 am to notiger1997
quote:
How about a quick update Duke? I’m trying to decide between going tonight vs tomorrow night uptown.
I'll be posting some short range models for tonight shortly. Note though, both nights have some rain risk.
The whole time period from now to Tuesday is still a shitshow forecast wise. There's wintery mix up BR way early Tuesday morning in this mornings NWS discussion.
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