re: Mardi Gras Weather Thread

Hopefully the weekend changes and is dry Saturday and Sunday. At this point, I’ve accepted Wednesday will be bad weather.

I would care, but I usually watch the parades from a mans on St. Charles, sooo... rain, don't rain, whatever.

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What type of rainfall are you seeing on the weekend?

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It's a tough question right now compared to last year. Big storm system leaving now and the parade of little systems in the pipe make it hard to fully trust model outputs.

I think an inch from Friday night to post Bacchus is a pretty good bet. Most likely to be a Sunday issue with the cold starting to come in.

Expect the forecast to jump around some for the next few days with timing. It'll probably be Thursday before you can have some confidence on if it'll impact certain krews.

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I think an inch from Friday night to post Bacchus is a pretty good bet. Most likely to be a Sunday issue with the cold starting to come in.

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I'm okay with that. Just don't want it to kill the crowd.

Rain chances are going up and down for all weekend, sure its to soon to know anything for sure.

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After tonight and early Wed, severity numbers are low and only weak areas of lift will exist. But rainfall and wet conditions will continue. The rain should be in waves as weak disturbances move over the area for the next several days. A cold front may move through Sat night or Sunday. This front could be in the form of a dual wave with the first moving to the coast and stalling Friday evening. This feature is quite subtle though. The second, more significant front then moves in for Saturday night or Sunday. The subtrop jet remains active and continues flowing on the back side of this front keeping moisture moving in over the isentropic surfaces which keeps light rain over the area into the new week. This could change as we get closer and it would be nice to see model trends bring a cold front through that cleans the area.

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This morning's forecast discussion from LIX. The takeaway is all parades should be fine to run as scheduled but not great weather for parade goers. Bring some mud boots and a light rain jacket every day.

The meat of it is the subtropical jet off the Pacific will be bringing in moisture over the shallow surface cold and give enough lift to make rain.

The source though isn't a big swell of moisture out of the gulf, which means less heavy rain potential than what you'd typically see during rain events for Mardi Gras. Plus it won't be surface based, so not a lightning concern.

So cool and light rain for the weekend through Mardi Gras day.

I'll start rolling out short term high res model runs tonight to show what tomorrow night could look like and do the same each evening.

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I’ll be in the Lesser Antilles,

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Certainly lesser with your ilk there.

I was at this one: Coldest Fat Tuesday high ever recorded — 38 degrees in Feb. 14, 1899

It was a blast

Most of ya'll were running down your mom's leg

So right now, light and spotty rain for Saturday?