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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:25 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:25 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Monday 8/1/2016 - 9 am ET/8 am CT: In my opinion, Invest 97-L is already a tropical storm
That's at 8am. At 3pm yesterday I said
quote:
This thing is incredibly organized for a tropical wave.
It's probably already a depression.
So I was probably right. Of course.
3
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:39 pm to The Boat
You should join the rest of the experts in Dr. Masters' blog on Weather Underground.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:42 pm to The Boat
Except it's not a tropical storm. The circulation is not closed. There are still no westerly winds.
eta: from that data though, when the circulation does close off, it'll jump straight to tropical storm classification.
eta: from that data though, when the circulation does close off, it'll jump straight to tropical storm classification.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:44 pm to baytiger
Never said it was
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:45 pm to The Boat
yeah, I was saying that the guy you quoted was wrong. It's not a depression either, though.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 7:45 pm to The Boat
quote:
quote:
Monday 8/1/2016 - 9 am ET/8 am CT: In my opinion, Invest 97-L is already a tropical storm
That's at 8am. At 3pm yesterday I said
quote:
This thing is incredibly organized for a tropical wave.
It's probably already a depression.
So I was probably right. Of course.
So what is going on here? Are you saying you called this a TS this morning and claiming you were right? Even though the NHC hasn't upgraded it?
ETA: never mind, see your post to Bay above
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:38 pm to rds dc
97L still looks appears to be an open wave as it moves south of Jamaica tonight. The blob rolling in towards the end of the loop is the mid level vort and any LLC would be out ahead of that and there was no noticeable turning in that area (the radar loop is a hot link and these comments will be irrelevant at some point tonight as it updates)
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:46 pm to rds dc
This thing
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:50 pm to DVinBR
quote:
This thing
Looks pretty good considering and different runs of the GFS and Euro have basically 97L'ed. Tracking it westward and then developing in the WCAB. Long ways out there for now.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:12 am to rds dc
How strong can a wave get without having a closed circulation?
Posted on 8/2/16 at 10:24 am to rds dc
Recon found a rather disorganized system but a closed LLC.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 10:54 am to rds dc
I'm kinda sweating this one. I'm on a ship headed straight for the Yucatan. I'll let you know what happens
Posted on 8/2/16 at 11:22 am to Lambdatiger1989
So it could end up around Del Rio, Tx, or south of Puerto Vallarta.
God I love numerical modeling.
God I love numerical modeling.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 11:25 am to DVinBR
I'm planning a trip to sit in a boat in the middle of the Atlantic tomorrow, exactly over the course of that storm. How will this effect that voyage?
Posted on 8/2/16 at 11:41 am to Lambdatiger1989
quote:
I'm on a ship headed straight for the Yucatan. I'll let you know what happens
quote:
I'm planning a trip to sit in a boat in the middle of the Atlantic tomorrow, exactly over the course of that storm. How will this effect that voyage?
Current forecasts predict the middle of the Atlantic to still be there so it sounds like you're golden.
This post was edited on 8/2/16 at 11:44 am
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:18 pm to Lambdatiger1989
quote:I'm heading to Playa Del Carmen area on August 18th. Hopefully it's still there.
I'm kinda sweating this one. I'm on a ship headed straight for the Yucatan. I'll let you know what happens
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:25 pm to rds dc
Nobody talking about this?
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:27 pm to DVinBR
quote:
Nobody talking about this?
In my anecdotal experience and completely unscientific opinion, well-organized waves coming off the coast rarely are a threat to land as the early strengthening seems to send them northward earlier.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:34 pm to DVinBR
None of the models are giving it much of a chance. Saharan air kills it in the next 12-24 hours.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:37 pm to rds dc
We just spent last week in Belize and came home Saturday. Only time in my life I had good timing.
This post was edited on 8/2/16 at 4:33 pm
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