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re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound
Posted on 7/31/16 at 10:39 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 7/31/16 at 10:39 am to GEAUXmedic
One of the models posted of the jet stream or currents or whatever the hell it was showed motion from Africa just shooting these things in a beeline towards the gulf, do these generally change as the summer goes on or are they consistent?
2
Posted on 7/31/16 at 10:43 am to bamarep
Quick question, if I were going to punta cana would this affect my travel plans?
Posted on 7/31/16 at 10:45 am to bamarep
quote:
One of the models posted of the jet stream or currents or whatever the hell it was showed motion from Africa just shooting these things in a beeline towards the gulf, do these generally change as the summer goes on or are they consistent?
Typical pattern this time of year. Atlantic will be hostile, but those that make it to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have a great chance of developing. Heat content is greater this year than even in 2005 and conditions look very favorable if wind shear continues to lessen.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 11:03 am to rds dc
quote:
For Punta Cana references or the hurricane free streak in the Gulf of Mexico? The Gulf streak is up to 1,049 days without a hurricane with the old record being 1,047 days set back b/w 1929 - 1932.
Thanks
You guessed correctly. I knew we were close to the no hurricane record. The old one might not have been that long given the lack of satellites in that area.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 11:07 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
latest runs show it traversing the Yucatan into Mexico... looks pretty good for Louisiana.
12z GFS continues to trend toward the Euro with a giant ridge sitting over the top dropping the 591 down in the Gulf forcing the system towards Belize, it might actually end up in Central America at this rate.
Also, ridging is actually stronger over the next couple of days not allowing the system to gain any latitude as it moves across the Caribbean.
ETA: Why is there still some uncertainty?
The GFS breaks down the ridge later on and a stronger system might track north towards the weakness. Timing of the ridge breakdown and strength of the system are still big question marks.
This post was edited on 7/31/16 at 11:22 am
Posted on 7/31/16 at 11:36 am to rds dc
Levi Cowen has posted a great video discussion on his website, esp. for anyone that is interested in the finer details that make it so hard for systems to develop in the Caribbean Sea south of the Islands. Video Here.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 11:37 am to rds dc
Definitely good news that the GFS is losing support, but we need to watch the wave's behind it in a couple weeks.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 3:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
The 12Z HWRF blows it up into a 100kt storm just off Belize, but the GFDL only has it up to about 60kts, the Euro keeps it weak at about 1004 mb, and the GFS is even weaker at about 1008mb.
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
This post was edited on 7/31/16 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 7/31/16 at 3:35 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
It needs to slow the frick down then.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 3:55 pm to rds dc
This thing is incredibly organized for a tropical wave.
It's probably already a depression.
It's probably already a depression.
This post was edited on 7/31/16 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 7/31/16 at 4:11 pm to The Boat
How fricked are we in Orange Beach, AL? Time to put up the shutters?
Posted on 7/31/16 at 4:24 pm to LoveGlove
quote:
How fricked are we in Orange Beach, AL? Time to put up the shutters?
Are there waves in Gulf Shores?
Posted on 7/31/16 at 4:34 pm to fatboydave
We haven't had a hurricane in the Gulf in over three years. I bought my condo three years ago. Would be my luck that one would hit here now. On the lighter side, I am watching Sharknado 2 right now.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 4:50 pm to LoveGlove
It seems like you bought at the exact right time to take advantage of the longest period of no activity in history. So you are pretty lucky.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 4:53 pm to burgeman
Yep. Almost have this thing paid off too. Best investment I have ever made in my life.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 9:20 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
The 12Z HWRF blows it up into a 100kt storm just off Belize, but the GFDL only has it up to about 60kts, the Euro keeps it weak at about 1004 mb, and the GFS is even weaker at about 1008mb
The one common theme is that they all take it basically due west to Mexico/Belize.
quote:
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
The 18z HWRF backed way off to what appears to be more of a realistic scenario. It looks good on sat tonight with some very deep convection (blacks) but we can't really tell much without recon or some better surface obs. Even the radar loops are probably picking up a mid-level vort.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 9:30 pm to rds dc
It is one of those systems that looks much better on sat than it probably is. The mid-level speed appears to have slowed down which has allowed the convection to consolidate. But as you mentioned, the surface circulation is either still weak or non-existent at this time.
The visible sat in the morning will tell the real story.
The visible sat in the morning will tell the real story.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 9:42 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
It is one of those systems that looks much better on sat than it probably is. The mid-level speed appears to have slowed down which has allowed the convection to consolidate. But as you mentioned, the surface circulation is either still weak or non-existent at this time.
The visible sat in the morning will tell the real story.
If the deep convection tonight can consolidate a LLC then it will probably be up between 16 and 17N and it looks like the 00z models were set around 15N. That might be enough to keep it out of Honduras?
Posted on 7/31/16 at 9:54 pm to rds dc
It sure does appear to have a slightly more northward component of motion/consolidation over the last few hours.
If it does make it up to 17N, that will put whatever it becomes closer to the more populated Belize City and Chetumal or even Costa Maya and Tulum.
If it does make it up to 17N, that will put whatever it becomes closer to the more populated Belize City and Chetumal or even Costa Maya and Tulum.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 10:18 pm to rds dc
almost closed circulation
impressive system so far - i'm not paying attention to any models yet.
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