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re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound
Posted on 8/2/16 at 3:52 pm to TexasTiger89
Posted on 8/2/16 at 3:52 pm to TexasTiger89
Convection is really blowing up in the past few hours... up to 45kt now but might become a hurricane in the next day or so.
1
Posted on 8/2/16 at 3:55 pm to DVinBR
quote:
Nobody talking about this?
Not much to talk about when it's that far out.
This post was edited on 8/2/16 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 8/2/16 at 4:09 pm to baytiger
Posted on 8/2/16 at 5:02 pm to baytiger
quote:
None of the models are giving it much of a chance. Saharan air kills it in the next 12-24 hours.
It looks like it might make 36-48 hrs but the fate is the same. If you run a loop of NASA GEOS-5 Dust EAOT superimposed over Euro 850 vort then you can see it choke the wave out. The remnant vort can be tracked through the islands where it eventually dies.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 5:26 pm to Walking the Earth
Ships current course 163 degrees 23.49.90 N 87.29.24W Speed 19 knots just off Yucatan. Boat has a nice roll going. Should be a fun next couple days.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 5:41 pm to rds dc
Some pretty impressive recon data coming in for Earl so far this evening. Possibly as low as 994 mb
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:00 pm to rds dc
I'd believe it
they also found 71 knots... wow
they also found 71 knots... wow
This post was edited on 8/2/16 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 8/2/16 at 7:31 pm to baytiger
Massive blow-up of convection over LLCC. Earl might just get to a Cat 2 before running into Belize. But he needs to establish better outflow if he's going to get there.
This post was edited on 8/2/16 at 7:33 pm
Posted on 8/2/16 at 10:01 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Massive blow-up of convection over LLCC. Earl might just get to a Cat 2 before running into Belize. But he needs to establish better outflow if he's going to get there.
It looks like there might be a bit of shear holding things in check tonight. Recon had to cancel again, so we won't know for sure until in the morning. Just a few days ago, models were showing a massive upper level anticyclone over the WCAB and obviously that hasn't played out.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 10:15 pm to rds dc
'Preciate you updating the title as things move along. 
Posted on 8/2/16 at 10:28 pm to rds dc
Being someone who is relatively new to the rant, it is exciting to find other weather nerds!
Posted on 8/3/16 at 9:13 am to rds dc
Earl looking much better this morning and sppears to finally be vertically stacked. Recon will give a much clearer picture and may find a hurricane.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 9:40 am to rds dc
The NHC discussion mentioned that a mid-level eye had formed. I think it is just a matter of time for him to form a full eye.
Belize is fortunate that he was moving so rapidly in his formative stage that he took a while to get stacked and establish outflow. However, they will still be dealing with a strengthening Cat 1/borderline Cat 2 at landfall, and the path may be worst case for Belize City where most of the population lives.
Belize is fortunate that he was moving so rapidly in his formative stage that he took a while to get stacked and establish outflow. However, they will still be dealing with a strengthening Cat 1/borderline Cat 2 at landfall, and the path may be worst case for Belize City where most of the population lives.
This post was edited on 8/3/16 at 9:41 am
Posted on 8/3/16 at 10:06 am to NorthEndZone
Nice convection blow up this morning, definitely working on getting an eye.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 10:16 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Will be interesting to see what can happen if we can clear some of the Saharan dust. Especially if that happens and we can get some good waves rolling off of Africa.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 10:30 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/3/16 at 1:32 pm to NorthEndZone
Going to Mexico in three weeks. I guess the beaches will be full of Seaweed now.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:02 pm to LanierSpots
Punta Cana is gorgeous this time of year though
Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:18 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Almost a hurricane 70mph sustained on the latest advisory.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:22 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Next advisory comes out in two hours... new recon is en route but previous recon couldn't find 60 kt (70 mph). If the new recon gets there in time, they might tick it up to a hurricane but it'll be close.
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