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Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:40 pm to LSU-MNCBABY
quote:
The expected value of a 100k coin flip is 50k. Any rational thinker should take this
That is undoubtably the correct play from an odds prospective, but I think it depends on your life circumstances whether you can take the risk or not. Some people really in the hole could probably not risk passing up a guarenteed 20k.
Plus at some point the marginal value of each dollar to you decreases. I'd flip the coin in this scenario, but if you change it to from thousands to millions, you'd have to
be crazy (or insanely wealthy) to flip the coin. Even if you are throwing $30 million in expected value away.
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 9:54 pm
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:01 pm to The Seaward
Flipping is the correct play. Those that would take the $20k are assigning an inordinate amount of weight to the probability of the negative outcome.
But then again that's a large component of human nature. Many people will consistently make suboptimal decisions to avoid negative outcomes. Can't fail if you don't try.
But then again that's a large component of human nature. Many people will consistently make suboptimal decisions to avoid negative outcomes. Can't fail if you don't try.
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 10:09 pm
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:08 pm to DrownEmTide
I ain't got no chirren or too many bills so I'd take the flip. If I had some debts or kids or something I'd take the 20
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:08 pm to Gr8t8s
I've never made 100,000 for just flipping a coin. Deal.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:19 pm to DrownEmTide
quote:
There is $20,000 cash in front of you. You can take the cash and go home if you'd like OR you can flip a coin one time for $100,000 cash.
if I had a little time to set it up, I would probably sell the opportunity for $40k to $45k.
I'm sure I could find a gambler who would jump at the chance to bet $40k on a 50/50 to win $100k. Most gamblers are willing to make bets with slightly losing odds, but that would have a +20% advantage.
If selling the opportunity is against the rules (and no reason it should be... I'm just setting up a side bet with a third party on the same coin-flip), then I would definitely be all-in on the flip myself.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:25 pm to M. A. Ryland
Did you really put that much thought into some random guy's dumbass scenario?
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:28 pm to LSU-MNCBABY
I agree with Cosmo, $20k doesn't quite move the needle enough for me, I'd flip the coin.
quote:
The expected value of a 100k coin flip is 50k.
Any rational thinker should take this situation.
quote:Not if you're a poor rational thinker.
Rationally you should take this situation every time too
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:31 pm to M. A. Ryland
quote:Of course it should be against the rules. You were given 2 options, the only rule is you gotta pick one.
If selling the opportunity is against the rules (and no reason it should be
quote:You do not know how to play this game.
I'm just setting up a side bet with a third party on the same coin-flip), then I would definitely be all-in on the flip myself.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:32 pm to DrownEmTide
Take the 20K and find a penny stock to put it on
Posted on 6/30/16 at 11:21 pm to DrownEmTide
Coin flip
Posted on 6/30/16 at 11:29 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
Those that would take the $20k are assigning an inordinate amount of weight to the probability of the negative outcome.
Some of you are overthinking this.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 1:07 am to DrownEmTide
mathematically, you should flop. By taking 20k, you're losing out on 30k of expected value.
But it depends on the individual. Someone who's down and out, he should take the 20k because it means more to him than someone who's loaded.
But it depends on the individual. Someone who's down and out, he should take the 20k because it means more to him than someone who's loaded.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 1:11 am to DrownEmTide
I'm taking the $20K
Posted on 7/1/16 at 6:42 am to OweO
quote:
I'll pay someone $100k if these stupid arse "do this or get this amount of money" threads.
I'm pretty sure you didn't complete your thought...
Posted on 7/1/16 at 7:48 am to DrownEmTide
All things beings equal, I'd take the coin flip as that's what the odds favor.
However, in my personal situation at the very moment, I'd take the 20k so I could pay off the rest of my student loans.
However, in my personal situation at the very moment, I'd take the 20k so I could pay off the rest of my student loans.
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 7:49 am
Posted on 7/1/16 at 7:49 am to DrownEmTide
20k, no question
Posted on 7/1/16 at 7:51 am to Niklaus Mikaelson
quote:
I'll take the 20. I'll turn it in to 200k within a year.
To bad the government will turn it into $50k instantly.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 7:54 am to DrownEmTide
I'm flipping the coin.
$20K buys a lot of hookers and cocaine.
But $100K buys a LOT of hookers and cocaine.
$20K buys a lot of hookers and cocaine.
But $100K buys a LOT of hookers and cocaine.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 7:56 am to DrownEmTide
prob flip
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