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Started By
Message
re: 20k guaranteed or coin flip for 100k?
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:14 pm to DrownEmTide
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:14 pm to DrownEmTide
quote:does this include free parking
20k guaranteed
0
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:15 pm to DrownEmTide
quote:
I feel like having nothing at stake changes my view a little on the whole odds thing too.
But according to the OP, you have $20K at stake. So the question is, really - Would you pay $20K for a 50% chance at $100,000?
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:34 pm to Gr8t8s
quote:
20k
quote:
One month's salary
quote:
This the OT
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 8:36 pm
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:38 pm to tigerfann83
I can't decide wether to flip a coin for 100 or take the 20...I'll flip a coin to decide.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:41 pm to DrownEmTide
depends on your life circumstances.
is a bird in the hand is worth 5 in the bush?
is a bird in the hand is worth 5 in the bush?
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:44 pm to DrownEmTide
20k and I wouldn't think twice
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:46 pm to DrownEmTide
Sure, flip away! 
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:52 pm to DrownEmTide
Flip.
How about you lose 20,000 of your cash if heads but win $100,000 if tails. Would you do it?
How about you lose 20,000 of your cash if heads but win $100,000 if tails. Would you do it?
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:53 pm to DrownEmTide
This thread is hilarious
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:01 pm to DrownEmTide
The expected value of a 100k coin flip is 50k.
Any rational thinker should take this situation.
Any rational thinker should take this situation.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:04 pm to Overbrook
quote:
you lose 20,000 of your cash if heads but win $100,000 if tails. Would you do it?
Rationally you should take this situation every time too
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:05 pm to LSU-MNCBABY
Flip for sure.
I'd flip my monthly paycheck that I earned from worked for a chance at 5x the amount.
I'd flip my monthly paycheck that I earned from worked for a chance at 5x the amount.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:10 pm to DrownEmTide
Law of probability:
$20,000 x 100% = $20,000
($100,000 x 50%) + ($0 x 50%) = $50,000
Therefore, $20,000 < $50,000
Accept the $100k scenario.
$20,000 x 100% = $20,000
($100,000 x 50%) + ($0 x 50%) = $50,000
Therefore, $20,000 < $50,000
Accept the $100k scenario.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:11 pm to tom
Give me the 20k. Nothing wrong with some extra SURE cash.........
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:14 pm to DrownEmTide
I'd take the 20k. 100K is not life changing.
Now, most people will take the flip. That's why most are idiots and choose poorly throughout their lives.
Now, most people will take the flip. That's why most are idiots and choose poorly throughout their lives.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:16 pm to DrownEmTide
Flip for sure. The only way someone shouldn't flip is if they absolutely need the 20k
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:18 pm to Emiliooo
Someone is downvoting us for knowing probability and expected values
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:23 pm to DrownEmTide
20k
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:33 pm to Jake88
50 > 20, it's pretty straightforward. Not sure why someone would be idiotic for being a rational person who makes the neutral call and theoretically stands to lose nothing.
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 9:33 pm
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