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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:20 am to Wermanium
quote:yep and not look back.
I'd take the $20K.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:32 am to DrownEmTide
ITT: We identify the people who failed math.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:33 am to DrownEmTide
All I have to do is flip it? Or do I only win on heads?
Flip it either way.
ETA: Just flipped a quarter on my desk and lost 20k.
Flip it either way.
ETA: Just flipped a quarter on my desk and lost 20k.
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 8:36 am
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:35 am to Mephistopheles
quote:
I'd flip the coin. If you said 20m or 100m, I'd take the 20m. I get the percentages, but 20m is enough for me and all my family to live happily forever. Not sure how the extra 80m would improve that.
Oh it would, but I get your point.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:36 am to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
ITT: We identify the people who failed math.
Yeah but expected value doesn't take into account the weight of the outcomes to the individual's circumstances.
If you've got a new baby on the way and you're in between jobs, take the $20k and don't think twice.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:37 am to Scooba
quote:
ETA: Just flipped a quarter on my desk and lost 20k.
frick, so did I.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:38 am to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
ITT: We identify the people who failed math.
I'm sure there are one or two here that don't get expected values, but I imagine it is more risk/loss aversion than poor math driving the 20k answers.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:39 am to baseballmind1212
quote:
20k cash. Max out an IRA and Could enjoy my last year in college while only working 20 hrs a week instead of 60.
Was going to say that it depends on your life situation and whether the 20K could actually make a difference in ones life at that point in time... I think you summed that up pretty well here in a specific case.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:42 am to Steadyhands
I'd flip it...but they call me Mr. Vegas.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:43 am to OweO
quote:
I'll pay someone $100k if these stupid arse "do this or get this amount of money" threads.
If......
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:44 am to The Seaward
quote:
I'm sure there are one or two here that don't get expected values, but I imagine it is more risk/loss aversion than poor math driving the 20k answers.
Precisely.
If you changed it to $20k guaranteed or a flip with $15K to heads and $85K to tails, the expected value doesn't change but I'd imagine you'd get nothing but "flip" answers.
Alternatively if you changed it to $20k guarantee or a flip with $200k to heads or you owe $100k on tails, every SOB on this board would take the $20k.
Expected value doesn't tell the whole story.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:46 am to Cosmo
quote:I disagree. Technically, you're right with the ev being higher with the coin flip, however that's only applicable if you have multiple coin flips. In this scenario the answer obviously depends on someone's specific situation.
Odds say you flip coin
I'd take the coin flip.
We had a similar thread going here three or four years ago. It was about deal or no deal:
Two boxes left, one is $1, the other is $1,000,000. How high would the offer have to be for you to take it vs opening the box?
that happened in real life. Dude turned down 400+K. His box had a dollar in it.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:48 am to Overbrook
quote:
Flip. How about you lose 20,000 of your cash if heads but win $100,000 if tails. Would you do it?
How many times can I play?
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:49 am to Steadyhands
yep. Cant wait till hunting season starts. Gotta find me an ot baller's wife to get some that sugar momma action. That's my only hope in having a fun senior year
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:49 am to slackster
quote:
Expected value doesn't tell the whole story.
See, I disagree. When you start playing the aversion to risk angle, you screw yourself. You flip the goddamned coin because that's what results in the best overall outcome in the long run. Yes, I understand that there's only one coin flip and the "long run" isn't strictly applicable here.
It doesn't change the fact that flipping the coin is provably the better choice, but emotion has led many people to make the wrong choice.
That, or bad math.
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 8:50 am
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:51 am to Scooba
quote:Same.
Just flipped a quarter on my desk and lost 20k.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:53 am to StrongBackWeakMind
I just flipped it, but onto a dresser and I won...Change furniture, guys.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 8:54 am to DrownEmTide
I would take the coin.
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