re: What "realistic" draft pick would cause the biggest meltdown?

Dee Ford picked with Mosley still on the board.

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Sure, some are inflated, but he was a really good player and will be a fine NFL player.

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This is still yet to be determined because he really struggled his rookie year. You have to wonder if he has the work ethic to improve.

And wait, hasn't this been your reasoning as why the Saints should NOT draft Odell Beckham Jr?

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Since when did being 6'2 245lbs become a small LB?

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I should have clarified he's shorter height wise. He still does fit the mold of the hybrid 3-4 OLB though.

And even though he just had 1 sack his rookie season, he had 40 tackles, 25 QB hurries, batted down 3 passes. His 25 QB hurries was 21st most in the NFL, and he only played 646 plays. Pretty impressive. Hes gonna be a fine OLB. He was productive on limited snaps.

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And wait, hasn't this been your reasoning as why the Saints should NOT draft Odell Beckham Jr?

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Jarvis Jones college stats werent nearly as inflated as OBJ stats. JJ still played well against legit competition. He might have a few more tackles and a sack or 2 that came against inferior opponents. Like I said, they were a little inflated, but not that much.

OBJs stats are severely inflated. Against TAMU, Ole Miss, Bama, Auburn, UF, Arky, and Iowa (which was the heart of LSUs schedule last year), he had just 23 catches for 321 yards. And its not like TAMU, Ole Miss, and Arky are loaded with defensive players either. All 8 of his TDs and more than 800 of his yards came in 6 games against TCU(only 1 catch for 11 yards vs Verrett), UAB, Kent St, UGA, Miss St, and Furman. The weaker teams defensively on LSUs schedule.

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get Roby because of the off the field and tendency to get beat too much, but what don't you like about Fuller??

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As a Clemson fan I've watched Fuller get dusted by Nuk and Sammy for years. He's been around for years. He's got a ton of experience. His technique is pretty spot-on.

However, he's never dominated. He's been consistently solid or good. He's never wowed me. He would be an awesome late second pick, but how he's working his way into the first is beyond me.

Capers always brings his defensive players along nice and slow. He doesnt ask his young players to do too much, and still lets them play a decent amount of snaps to get the feel of the NFL game. And, the position JJ is playing for them is the key to their D. He groomed him last year and made sure he understands the D. Still way too early to judge JJ. This season is when he will get his PT and we will be able to tell what kinda player he is.

And most of what you said about teams taking away OBJ deep ball and opening things up for Juice isnt accurate. Jarvis actually saw other teams top DB. And we went to Jarvis way more on 3rd down than OBJ, who did majority of his damage on 1st down. Jarvis was better against the better competition. And saw teams top DB. Which allowed OBJ to matchup against CB2. When LSU got into SEC play, the level of competition stepped up and CB2s were able to virtually take him out of the game.

All opponents did to basically take OBJ out of the game is play him pressed and bump and run, which is what he will see in the NFL most of the time. He struggles to get past the defender and into his route when they play him tight and bump him at the line. He isnt physical and cant use his speed when they do that.

Intermediate routes? In that 7 game stretch, Jarvis had a better YPC than OBJ did.

Some more stats on OBJ:

Based on Opponents:
- vs SEC opponents(8 games) : 36 catches, 583 yards, 2 TDs. Averaged 4.5 catches, 72.9yards, and 0.25 TDs a game vs SEC opponents.

- vs AP Ranked teams : 21 catches, 375 yards, 0 TDs. 17.9YPC

- vs Non Conference opponents: 23 catches, 569 yards, 6 TDs. 24.7 ypc.

When LSU was tied in the game: 8 catches, 155yards, 0 TDs.
When LSU was down by 1-7pts: 13 catches, 265 yards, 0 TDs.

Based on Final Margin:
- 0 - 7 pts: 12 catches, 206 yards, 0 TDs.
- 8 - 14pts: 12 catches, 224 yards, 0 TDs.
- 15+ : 35 catches, 722 yards, 8 TDs.

Based on down:
- 1st down: 27 catches, 586yards, 4 TDs
- 2nd down: 15 cathces, 253 yards, 4 TDs
- 3rd down: 15 cathces, 272 yards, 0 TDs

Jarvis was at his best vs SEC and ranked opponents. He was huge for LSU in close games. And he was absolutely dominant on 3rd downs. He had 28 catches, 474yards, and 6 TDs on 3rd down. Thats ridiculous. His regular season stats were 77 catches, 1193 yards and 10 TDs. A lot of his work came on 3rd downs.

I do agree that he is a good deep threat WR. But, we dont need that. We have Kenny Stills, who will just be in his 2nd year and he led the NFL in YPC his rookie year.

No matter how you spin it, OBJ was great vs horrible teams, and struggled versus teams with decent defensive players. His stats are extremely inflated.

damn girl

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Uhh, 1st round picks are expected to come in & produce right away especially for defense that has aged very quickly the last few years. We'll see if he makes any improvement but I don't expect to see that much.

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Like I said Capers patiently develops his young players, especially young LBs. Which is why Lawrence Timmons was a big name early on. Hes 1 of the few rookies to start for Capers. Lamarr Woodley, Larry Foote, Harrison, etc. None of those guys started as rookies. They all got some PT, but none of them were every down players.

And I agree, 1st rounders are expected to come in and play right away. But not every coach / system believes that. And not every player is ready to play immediately. Just because they arent great as rookies doesnt mean they wont get any better and become great players.

I dont get how you are flipping the coverage thing around. At all. Jarvis was going against the teams top DB, so OBJ had a tougher time to get open and it created more space for Landry? Yea... that makes no sense what so ever. And an fyi, a safety is always playing over the top. Thats their job.

And I hate arguing over OBJ / Jarvis. But a lot of people have a misconception about OBJ. Is he a great athlete? yes. Did he have good stats? yes. But, against the better teams he struggled and will have some big issues at the next level. Do I think he will be a solid NFL WR? Yes. Do I think hes overrated? Yes, but only by 25 spots or so. I see he and Jarvis both as mid 2nd rounders.

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Have you seriously never heard of double or bracket coverage? If a defense brackets one receiver, it will open up areas of the field for other receivers to work. If a defense takes one area up, it will always open up another area of the field.

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Nobody doubled or bracketed either Jarvis or OBJ. They were 1v1 with CBs and safeties were playing like they normally would. Either in the middle of the field or 2 deep splitting the field. Sure, sometimes a safety would shade to 1 side. But they were never bracketed or double teamed. And teams never did that because of the exact reason you said. Double team 1 WR, opens up a lot of space for the other.

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You have some single coverages where the single high safety shades to side, stays directly over the middle or you can zero coverage without any safety help over the top.

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Single high = over the top. Shading to 1 side = over the top to that side. staying in the middle = over the top. Only time a safety isnt over the top is when the safety is in man to man coverage or blitzing.

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Jarvis was going against the teams top DB

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Do you have any stat to back this up?

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Yeah you change it up

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I haven't changed anything up. I simply stated a fact when you made seem like they saw the same exact coverage on every play.

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Jarvis and OBJ were never bracketed / double teamed.

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This is just flat out false. With Beckham of out the game, Arkansas tried to bracket Landry & that allowed Dural to be open for the game winner.