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re: Tom Ziller's top 100 free agents of 2016
Posted on 2/2/16 at 2:02 pm to NOFOX
Posted on 2/2/16 at 2:02 pm to NOFOX
Yup, to say nothing of the odd roster construction. Given the lack of prospects, I've also been wondering why they chose to sign mid career washouts instead of trying a few young, D League guys. Especially at the 3. Success rate wouldn't have been any worse and theres at least a chance at upside as opposed to a guy like Babbitt.
The one excuse I've seen recently is that they needed to be competitive sooner so Davis would sign his rookie extension. That's nonsense. Davis was getting a 5 year max after his rookie year. Guys dont pass up those deals, regardless of team quality.
The one excuse I've seen recently is that they needed to be competitive sooner so Davis would sign his rookie extension. That's nonsense. Davis was getting a 5 year max after his rookie year. Guys dont pass up those deals, regardless of team quality.
1
Posted on 2/2/16 at 2:18 pm to NOFOX
The draft guys from 2013-2014 I see can help benefit us in the long run if we stayed patient. I like Jrue Holiday, but having him for 2 first rounders was a kill especially when we could get one decent in the draft. Teams like Minnesota and Boston are the teams I wish we could built somewhat similar to. They are young and will just keep on getting better. If you put Anthony Davis on either of those teams, they would be instantly better than what we have here.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 2:52 pm to corndeaux
BDJ seems to be a step in a different direction
Posted on 2/2/16 at 3:57 pm to duyp
quote:
The draft guys from 2013-2014 I see can help benefit us in the long run if we stayed patient. I like Jrue Holiday, but having him for 2 first rounders was a kill especially when we could get one decent in the draft. Teams like Minnesota and Boston are the teams I wish we could built somewhat similar to. They are young and will just keep on getting better. If you put Anthony Davis on either of those teams, they would be instantly better than what we have here.
Realistically, I wouldn't have minded if we did a half-half. Get a "young proven vet" that could play second fiddle and build depth through the draft.
OKC showed the world that KD-Westbrook can carry a team if you draft and get role players around them.
Mistake was getting too many guards and trying to tape the wing/center for 2 years. The biggest mistake wasn't Jrue (unless we knew about the injury), the biggest mistake was trading for tyreke and sending off a viable backup PG AND a starting center.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 4:05 pm to htran90
quote:
They are young and will just keep on getting better. If you put Anthony Davis on either of those teams, they would be instantly better than what we have here.
Put Davis on the Twolves in 2012 and they probably don't have wiggins or towns, so no.
You can't say if X team drafted Davis, they would have a better roster than us because of who they drafted the last few years. They wouldn't have been in a position to draft those players if they had Davis on their team.
Only way that works is if X team subscribed to the Philly method and openly tanked for higher picks for years before trying to make it all come together.
Everyone hates what Philly is doing, but at the same time, wish we had done what Philly has been doing for years.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 4:18 pm to htran90
quote:
OKC showed the world that KD-Westbrook can carry a team if you draft and get role players around them.
They only showed that they were lucky to be in a position to draft two top 5 players in back to back years. Pretty much unprecedented that a team drafts in the top 5 twice AND both picks turn into all NBA 1st teamers.
They were also TERRIBLE outside of durant during his rookie year. Finished 7 games lower than the Hornets during Davis's rookie year even though Durant played in 16 more games than Davis during their respective rookie years.
Draft is just a crapshoot. Always has been, always will be. Some teams are lucky enough to hit consecutive homers. Some teams get bust after bust.
In all likelihood, we don't take Nerlens if we were set on keeping the pick. Would Ben Mclemore be an upgrade over Jrue?
ETA: looking at the 2013 draft, there's only like 3 guys out of the 60 that have done shite in the NBA since they've been drafted and none of them are even half the player a guy like Westbrook is.
Best scorer is probably CJ McCollum (10th), who averaged 6.5 points on 41% shooting before his explosion this year.
Giannis (15th) may turn into an all star, but he is still pretty raw 3 years later.
None of the guys picked before our 6th pick have amounted to anything. The best player picked before us (Oladipo) got benched this year by a fringe playoff team in the East.
TL;DR: Being upset that we didn't do what the Thunder did is irrational. Having MVP caliber players in back to back drafts is extremely rare. Having a team draft both of those players has happened all of once. Hey, at least we aren't Portland (Passed on Jordan and Durant).
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 4:27 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
They only showed that they were lucky to be in a position to draft two top 5 players in back to back years. Pretty much unprecedented that a team drafts in the top 5 twice AND both picks turn into all NBA 1st teamers.
They were also TERRIBLE outside of durant during his rookie year. Finished 7 games lower than the Hornets during Davis's rookie year even though Durant played in 16 more games than Davis during their respective rookie years.
Draft is just a crapshoot. Always has been, always will be. Some teams are lucky enough to hit consecutive homers. Some teams get bust after bust.
In all likelihood, we don't take Nerlens if we were set on keeping the pick. Would Ben Mclemore be an upgrade over Jrue?
Of course it is a crapshoot, OKC is the prime example of luck, but at the same time a prime example of not throwing 1st round picks for commodities.
Demps was handcuffed to EG, struck lightning with AD, and picked a SG as insurance to his injury prone starter. Then traded for fool's gold and then traded away an above average starting center and a solid backup PG for ANOTHER guard that plays the same style as 2 of the SGs. Signed bottom barrel centers to mask your void at center.
Then you realize you need an actual center, let your starting SF walk, replaced him with someone off the streets, and then traded a 1st for a center that the team didn't even want. Followed by SIGNING said player to a large contract and still ignoring the SF position.
Everything up until Jrue was solid without looking at hindsight. Everything else after was duct taping mistake after mistake. You don't win by duct taping mistakes, that is what gets you and should get you fired.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 4:34 pm to htran90
quote:
Everything up until Jrue was solid without looking at hindsight. Everything else after was duct taping mistake after mistake. You don't win by duct taping mistakes, that is what gets you and should get you fired.
I'm not disagreeing with this. I think trading for Tyreke has proven to be a long term mistake, even if he can takeover and win us games. Demps tried to force him in the SF role to fill a void and it didn't work. The only reason the logjam hasn't looked worse than it does is because at least one of our guards is seriously injured at all times.
I just hate how the thunder are thrown around here like we fricked up for not doing what they did. Doing what the thunder did was just simply not possible. The caliber of players they drafted did not exist when we had the option of drafting early.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 4:42 pm to JohnnyKilroy
It was referring more to post-Jrue trade. Demps tried to force trades to make this team into instant contenders instead of a "3-5 year plan". NBA turnaround isn't as quick as the NFL. Even the superstars take time to develop, we should have been patient with letting AD develop while surrounding him with good support across the board, not a logjam at ball-dominant guards while ignoring everything else.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 4:51 pm to htran90
The fact that we have not developed any younger guys is hurting us. We used all of our assets for win now pieces. We bought a higher floor, but not enough. Now those contracts are coming up and we do not have anyone to replace them. So to sustain the talent level we have, we must eat up our cap space and limit our ceiling.
We don't have a backup for Ryno or Gordon. Next season we won't have a backup for Jrue or Evans. It is very difficult to compete without keeping or trying to acquire some draft picks and developing young talent on cheap contracts.
ETA - Not saying the Thunder model is realistic, but not developing young talent on cheap contracts is ridiculous
We don't have a backup for Ryno or Gordon. Next season we won't have a backup for Jrue or Evans. It is very difficult to compete without keeping or trying to acquire some draft picks and developing young talent on cheap contracts.
ETA - Not saying the Thunder model is realistic, but not developing young talent on cheap contracts is ridiculous
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 4:59 pm to NOFOX
quote:
We don't have a backup for Ryno or Gordon
I have a very low opinion of Gordon, at least his role on the team. However, if BDJ's 3 point stroke is legit, and his DLeague stats say it may not be, I think we have our Gordon replacement and hopefully we'll be able to lock him up on long term near minimum deal.
You're right about no Ryno replacement though, and even if you trade him for someone like Oubre that turns out to be good, he won't have near Ryno's impact next year. The team's 1st round pick needs to be an impact player or next year may not be much better.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:03 pm to htran90
quote:
It was referring more to post-Jrue trade. Demps tried to force trades to make this team into instant contenders instead of a "3-5 year plan". NBA turnaround isn't as quick as the NFL. Even the superstars take time to develop, we should have been patient with letting AD develop while surrounding him with good support across the board, not a logjam at ball-dominant guards while ignoring everything else.
I don't disagree. But at the same time, I think that gives us more flexibility, not necessarily a better team. Guys like Asik and Evans came up huge in some must win games last year. And we barely made the playoffs. Give us Gravy and Rolo and I don't think we make it last year. I think a lot of us are pissed off at this team because we were supposed to take the next step forward, building off of last year's playoff berth. Reverse the moves we made and I'm confident we'd be in our 4th year with AD and no playoff appearances right now. Basically our expectations for this team are a lot higher than they would be had we taken the slow rebuild approach.
Additionally, based on all the available information at the time (IE not taking Draymond instead of Rivers because he went from an end of the bench guy to monstar in year 3), I don't think our draft picks or lack thereof have been the issue.
Basically it appears that people wanted us to go the Philly route. Draft a superstar and stay shitty enough to load up on cheap talent through the draft. I support the philly model, but then again, it's not my team so it doesn't really bother me if they are taking extreme measures to rebuild. I don't want to think about what fan support around the city/state would be if we were in year 4 of AD and our biggest accomplishment was being able to avoid having the worst record in league history.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:09 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I think a lot of us are pissed off at this team because we were supposed to take the next step forward, building off of last year's playoff berth. Reverse the moves we made and I'm confident we'd be in our 4th year with AD and no playoff appearances right now. Basically our expectations for this team are a lot higher than they would be had we taken the slow rebuild approach.
The problem is that the approach resulted in the team peaking with one playoff appearance and a first round exit. Now we have very limited room for growth and no flexibility.
It has nothing to do with the Philly model. In a small market not willing to go into luxury tax, you need to try to get talent on cheap contracts. We have none. In a small market you need to develop talent. The problem is AD's contract has now kicked in and we have very little room to grow now. If we resign Ryno, we have no room to do anything else. If we don't resign Ryno, we need to compete in FA and replace his production.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:12 pm to htran90
I think Wiggins will be with AD since they traded with Cleveland which made a deadly duo. Maybe not KAT, but either way those 2 can be your cornered stone for the future. I meant as if AD was there cornerstone, I'm pretty sure teams can build around him instead of just trading all their first round picks.
Dennis Schroeder, Steven Adams, Kelly olynyk, Georgia deng, Rudy gobert are nba players. Solomon hill and tony snell got potential. Even if we stuck with Noel, he's been pretty decent. But I'm pretty sure if we haven't traded, it would had been McCollum or Burke.
But who knows who we could have drafted or who we will sign in FA. It sucks philly knew that Jrue was already hurt and they only was fine 3 million for it. It just sucks because now we have to be chasing and overpaying for some of these free agents.
Edit: Demp probably still would have signed Evans. If we were patient, Asik would be signed since everyone Knew Houston wanted to release him. Since most of the guys will be on rookie contracts, we could have spent the money elsewhere.
Dennis Schroeder, Steven Adams, Kelly olynyk, Georgia deng, Rudy gobert are nba players. Solomon hill and tony snell got potential. Even if we stuck with Noel, he's been pretty decent. But I'm pretty sure if we haven't traded, it would had been McCollum or Burke.
But who knows who we could have drafted or who we will sign in FA. It sucks philly knew that Jrue was already hurt and they only was fine 3 million for it. It just sucks because now we have to be chasing and overpaying for some of these free agents.
Edit: Demp probably still would have signed Evans. If we were patient, Asik would be signed since everyone Knew Houston wanted to release him. Since most of the guys will be on rookie contracts, we could have spent the money elsewhere.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:17 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I don't disagree. But at the same time, I think that gives us more flexibility, not necessarily a better team. Guys like Asik and Evans came up huge in some must win games last year. And we barely made the playoffs. Give us Gravy and Rolo and I don't think we make it last year. I think a lot of us are pissed off at this team because we were supposed to take the next step forward, building off of last year's playoff berth. Reverse the moves we made and I'm confident we'd be in our 4th year with AD and no playoff appearances right now. Basically our expectations for this team are a lot higher than they would be had we taken the slow rebuild approach.
Agreed and drafting is always hindsight.
The honest truth is without Tyreke and Asik, we probably miss the playoffs last year and continue to build a positive improving team.
Last year we went: 45-37
Asik: 5.0 WS
Evans: 4.6 WS
RoLo: 5.1 WS
Vasquez: 2.8 WS
Just from WS, we lose about 2 wins. Realistically, we probably go 40-42, miss the playoffs, and spend the pick we sent for Asik on Oubre. Re-sign RoLo. Keep Ish Smith.
Our team comp would be close to this, assuming QPon is out:
PG: Jrue/Smith
SG: EG/Oubre/Douglas
SF: Gee/Cunningham/Oubre
PF: Davis/Ryno/Cunningham
C: RoLo/AA
That team has a lot more potential IMO than what we're rolling out right now.
When we traded for Tyreke, we lost a bench guy and a starter. In hindsight and looking at the big picture, that trade gave us another guard, but costed us a SF and a better center.
GV + RoLo -> Tyreke
1st (Oubre) -> Asik
GV+RoLo+Oubre for Tyreke+Asik
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:17 pm to NOFOX
quote:
It has nothing to do with the Philly model. In a small market not willing to go into luxury tax, you need to try to get talent on cheap contracts.
AKA the philly model.
That's exactly what philly is trying to do. Load up on talent that is cheap. Pretty much impossible to do unless you are consistently terrible for 3-5 years (and you hit on a majority of your picks) or if you are so unbelievably lucky that you snag the 3 MVP caliber players in 3 years (Thunder model).
GS is also a total anomaly in that the best player in the league wasn't even an all star caliber player when it came time to sign a long term extension. We'd be in great shape if we could have somehow signed davis to 5/70 instead of 5/145 this past summer.
ETA: And the "young vet" route that we went is a valid attempt of obtaining talent on cheap contracts. It ultimately hasn't worked, but it's a valid method imo. We tried to find guys like Tyreke and Jrue who were proven NBA players (ROY, All star) that could be had for relatively cheap. The thought being that they had already proven that they had talent, and when put together they could be even better than they had on their previous teams. It didn't work. Tyreke at SF was a failure.
I'm not saying I like where the team is roster wise. I don't. I'm just saying that it appears that some people are falling in a "grass is greener" trap. Reverse all the post-Jrue moves we've made and our roster still probably sucks. We almost definitely haven't made the playoffs yet, and our hopes and dreams of ever becoming a playoff team would be hitting on a 8-12 pick (lol) and/or shelling out big money for a guy who is probably just on the wrong side of his peak giving us a year or two of good/great play and 2-3 years of regret because we're getting average production out of our most expensive player (See: Peja, and whatever team inevitably gives a max contract to Ryno this summer).
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 5:40 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:35 pm to JohnnyKilroy
You can't just say Philly Model. Boston drafted sullinger, olynyk, smart. Milwaukee drafted Middleton, Parker, and Giannis. Minnesota got Wiggins and KAT. These are some young talented players and in the future would become better depending on who they are surrounded with.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 5:36 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:36 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
AKA the philly model.
So anyone who uses their draft picks is employing the philly model? No one is saying intentionally make your team bad and take on bad contracts for years to accumulate picks.
Using draft picks is not the Philly model. Every successful team develops at least soem of their own talent. The best teams develop even more of it. To be successful we have to develop draft picks and hope to hit on some. You don't win consistently while having one player you drafted on your team.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:51 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Best scorer is probably CJ McCollum (10th), who averaged 6.5 points on 41% shooting before his explosion this year.
And your boy right here was the leader of the CJ McCollum pain train
Posted on 2/2/16 at 5:59 pm to NOFOX
quote:
So anyone who uses their draft picks is employing the philly model? No one is saying intentionally make your team bad and take on bad contracts for years to accumulate picks.
No. Any team who wants to find long term talent in the draft is gonna have to do what philly is doing or luck into it.
Aside from a few outlier years, the vast majority of every draft is filled with average at best players. shite, some years don't produce hardly any above average players, let alone all stars.
Look at all the teams that have built mostly through the draft. They were either really bad for years, or got extremely lucky in finding a gem that everyone else passed on. They are outliers. Exceptions.
Of all the championship teams the last decade, you could only say that the Spurs and the Warriors are the ones who are draft built. Spurs also tanked in order to get the cornerstone of their dynasty. At a time when they already had an established superstar. Try to forget about the clusterfrick this season has become, would you have been ok going into this season with the goal of being a bottom 3 team? I sure as frick wouldn't have.
I've already discussed the anomaly of the dubs above. They hit on Klay and Draymond (who was a nobody prior to a coaching change) and they lucked into the fact that the current best player in the league wasn't anything special his first few years. They would have traded curry years ago if the Bucks thought he wasn't made of glass. If Curry was this good and didn't have injury issues early on, they likely don't have the money to acquire the guy who ended up being the finals MVP last year.
Heat? No.
Dallas? No.
Lakers? No.
Celtics? No.
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