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re: Tom Ziller's top 100 free agents of 2016
Posted on 2/2/16 at 6:06 pm to duyp
Posted on 2/2/16 at 6:06 pm to duyp
quote:
You can't just say Philly Model. Boston drafted sullinger, olynyk, smart. Milwaukee drafted Middleton, Parker, and Giannis. Minnesota got Wiggins and KAT. These are some young talented players and in the future would become better depending on who they are surrounded with.
And what I'm saying is that if you put a player like AD on any of those teams they don't get to draft those guys. There draft pick would inevitably be worse because they had a guy like AD already on the roster.
If you get your "superstar" player first like we did, then it's not so easy to pick up talent in the draft because one good player on your roster can take you out of top 10 pick range. You could say this is what happened to the Cavs and Lebron the first time around. They drafted the best player since Jordan and then they were never in a position to draft highly rated prospects because LeBron made them too good to be in that position.
It's much better to have already drafted your supporting cast and then land the super star.
ETA: And Minny didn't draft Wiggins. They lucked out in that their best player who was ready to GTFO of that shitshow was coveted by the team who had the #1 pick. And the guys the got (Wiggins, the other number 1 pick who is so worthless I can't even remember his name) weren't good enough to keep them from being bottom of the barrel, so they were in a position to draft KAT.
I love me some Giannis, but the guy still has a long way to go before he's a superstar. 3 years in and he is still really raw.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 6:18 pm
3
Posted on 2/2/16 at 6:21 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
And what I'm saying is that if you put a player like AD on any of those teams they don't get to draft those guys. There draft pick would inevitably be worse because they had a guy like AD already on the roster.
We had the chance, we shipped off that pick and the 2014 pick for Jrue. Look at every pick from 6-15.
10 players: 2 SF, 2 SG, 2 PG, 1 Combo guards, and 3 centers.
Could have gotten:
Noel
McLemore
KCP
Burke
McCollum
MCW
Adams
Olynyk
Shabazz
Giannis
At this point in time, about 3 haven't panned out. the other 7 have been improving year by year.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 6:28 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Let's say we still have our picks, it'll be Noel/Burke/Mccolum, Efrid Payton/Jusuf Nurkic, and Saric.
Add any of those three with AD and they be a great young team to watch.
As much as I love watching Holliday, I think if we add another superstar to the squad we be instant contenders. Philly doesn't have the luxury we have of adding a superstar because who would want to play with them? We have AD! So we really didn't have to rush it. I would understand that route if AD wasn't on his rookie contract and in his prime. We rushed it too fast.
Add any of those three with AD and they be a great young team to watch.
As much as I love watching Holliday, I think if we add another superstar to the squad we be instant contenders. Philly doesn't have the luxury we have of adding a superstar because who would want to play with them? We have AD! So we really didn't have to rush it. I would understand that route if AD wasn't on his rookie contract and in his prime. We rushed it too fast.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 6:32 pm to htran90
quote:
Noel
McLemore
KCP
Burke
McCollum
MCW
Adams
Olynyk
Shabazz
Giannis
I still like Jrue over Noel. Noel has become a solid player, but Jrue has been great this year and it's not like Noel has played much more than Jrue since the trade. Noel missed his entire rookie season. I guess you could say that taking Noel and holding him out the whole first year keeps us shitty and gives us a chance at picking Marcus Smart. Not a bad outcome.
I'd take Giannis, McCollum (let's assume his development goes a lot faster because he's not the 3rd or 4th guard in the rotation like he was his first two years in Portland).
None of those other players really excite me more than the Jrue we've been seeing this year.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 6:38 pm to duyp
quote:
We have AD! So we really didn't have to rush it. I would understand that route if AD wasn't on his rookie contract and in his prime. We rushed it too fast.
But if that's the issue then we're fine. We still have AD. Salary cap will not be the reason a superstar doesn't come to NOLA. If Durant or Westbrook wants to join AD, moves will be made. No team would ever turn those guys down because they can't afford them. You turn down end of prime guys or fringe guys with potential because of money. You don't turn down undisputed superstar because of the cap.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 7:00 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Yes but also the superstars look at the whole team to see if it really has potential. Guys like Evans and Asik won't do that for us. The young players are intriguing and we can add players like Wesley Matthews, Batum, Millsap, or Dragic.
A team made of AD, Matthews/Batum/Dragic, with young players like Mccolum, Saric and Noel is more intriguing than AD and Holliday. Yeah those players are making 7 million more than Jrue. But having depth in basketball with 3 other players will make our team overall better for the future. We could resign these guys easily than overpaying for players which will effect us later on.
Overall: I rather have RFA than UFA in the long run.
A team made of AD, Matthews/Batum/Dragic, with young players like Mccolum, Saric and Noel is more intriguing than AD and Holliday. Yeah those players are making 7 million more than Jrue. But having depth in basketball with 3 other players will make our team overall better for the future. We could resign these guys easily than overpaying for players which will effect us later on.
Overall: I rather have RFA than UFA in the long run.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 7:26 pm to duyp
quote:
The young players are intriguing and we can add players like Wesley Matthews, Batum, Millsap, or Dragic.
To me, these are players that are really good, but a team like nola would have to overpay to get them. These are Ryno type of players. Pretty damn good, but they aren't superstars, and low/mid level teams practically always overpay for them.
The only way these guys are taking discounts is to go to big market/established contenders.
shite, before dragic signed his max deal with MIA he said he's only interested in big market and max money.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 7:54 pm to JohnnyKilroy
I just want to give you guys props for a respectful basketball discussion
Much better than the "AD is soft" and "Tank" posts we've seen in recent times.
Much better than the "AD is soft" and "Tank" posts we've seen in recent times.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 8:04 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
To me, these are players that are really good, but a team like nola would have to overpay to get them. These are Ryno type of players. Pretty damn good, but they aren't superstars, and low/mid level teams practically always overpay for them.
Yeah that's why i want to draft some players because in the future we are going to overpay FAs coming to NO
Posted on 2/2/16 at 8:07 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Except when we did get AD on our team we were still drafting top 10 for multiple years. So your premise is kind of flawed. We can't attract super FA's like Miami. We need to hit on some minor free agents and the draft. Otherwise we end up goings the Cleveland model. I don't want to hope AD comes back here after winning championships in a big market.
We have a better chance of fluking into the OKC/Warriors/Spurs model than wining via the Heat model. More than likely we end up doing the Cleveland model where we will get a high pick when AD leaves because we can't build a competitor around him with trades and mid-tier fee agents.
We have a better chance of fluking into the OKC/Warriors/Spurs model than wining via the Heat model. More than likely we end up doing the Cleveland model where we will get a high pick when AD leaves because we can't build a competitor around him with trades and mid-tier fee agents.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 8:59 pm to NOFOX
quote:
Except when we did get AD on our team we were still drafting top 10 for multiple years.
Only once.
Maybe if we didn't do the Jrue trade we make it twice. The reality is that AD is just too good to stay bad for that long. All the examples people have given are of teams that have yet to draft anyone even half as good as AD.
I highly doubt Minny will be this bad next year or the year after that. With the way the west is right now, they could be and 8-10 seed next year.
Celtics aren't going to get any better through the draft unless they luck into a stud in the mid to upper teens.
Milwaukee has taken a step back this year, but they made the playoffs last year.
Acquiring talent is difficult in this league. Other than sheer luck, no "model" has proven consistently to pay off.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 9:22 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Only once
The Pelicans had AD and for two years finished with records which would have gotten them two top 10 picks.
2013 Pelicans pick = #6
2014 Pelicans pick = #10
Do you honestly think we can trade our way into a contender or get top tier free agents to come here? I don't mind the Jrue trade because those drafts were not great and he was an all star, but every move after that has been pretty terrible. We have been managed horribly. I think we need to get lucky in the draft to acquire a second star to AD.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 9:24 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:They own Brooklyn's pick, currently #3 in the Lotto, as well as the other 2 late teen 1sts. On top of that, they only have about $10 million in real cap commitments next season. They will have anywhere from $69-79 million in cap to spend. They could end up adding 3 Max guys AND Ben Simmons to their already playoff team. Their guard rotation is filthy, and cheap through 2017-18. By then the cap will have expanded enough for them to keep 1 of Avery or Isaiah easily.. I love what they are doing.
Celtics aren't going to get any better through the draft unless they luck into a stud in the mid to upper teens.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 9:53 pm to NOFOX
quote:
2014 Pelicans pick = #10
Forgot about that. Got my years confused with the pick we gave up for Asik.
quote:
Do you honestly think we can trade our way into a contender or get top tier free agents to come here?
I think the strategy we used was not a bad one. I think the execution has been bad. If instead of tyreke we got a young vet C or SG/SF that could move to SG if/when we acquired our big name SF then it could have worked. I think the strategy to build a strong, young core to attract FAs to play with AD was a perfectly fine strategy that was executed poorly by trading away too much for Asik and Evans.
Given the information that was available at the time of those drafts, I don't think we would have gotten anyone who has or will blossom into a superstar.
The only guy I see that we could have gotten that has that potential is Giannis, and he'd have been a hell of a reach at 6. He is still a project and he's in his third year. Maybe he'll be an all star caliber player in a couple more years, but he isn't there yet.
Perhaps we could have taken Giannis and packaged him with other assets down the road for a more polished and complete player. I guess that could have been a possibility.
Idk what exactly is the direction we should take going forward. On one hand I understand blowing it up and building back around Jrue and AD. But at the end of the day, that method is just as, if not much more likely, to land us no one of note and AD opting out before his last year because we still suck 3 years after blowing it up.
I just don't want to be in a place where I can't blame AD for leaving 4 years from now.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 9:59 pm to patendedgmf
The only thing we can hope for now is for Jrue to keep playing like he is and get back to his all star form. Anthony Davis to become more vocal. Hopefully we can draft someone that is worth superstar status to pair with these two. I don't mind having Tyreke Evans for 10 million to be honest, there are far worst players than Evans getting paid more.i just hope Demps can actually do this. Free agency right now isn't something to be looking out for this year since almost every team have cap space. Maybe next year if our core 3 (AD/JH/?) can make a splash in playoffs.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:03 pm to patendedgmf
quote:
They own Brooklyn's pick, currently #3 in the Lotto,
No protection on that pick? Brooklyn
quote:
They will have anywhere from $69-79 million in cap to spend. They could end up adding 3 Max guys AND Ben Simmons to their already playoff team. Their guard rotation is filthy, and cheap through 2017-18. By then the cap will have expanded enough for them to keep 1 of Avery or Isaiah easily.. I love what they are doing.
Yea I've really liked their drafts that past few years.
Also just saw that Isaiah Thomas was the 60th overall pick? Holy shite what a fricking steal. But lol Kings because they traded him for the rights to Alex Oriakhi, who has never made it to the NBA since he was drafted in 2013. Goddamn the kings suck so fricking much. Traded the best 60th pick ever for literally nothing.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:04 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I think the strategy we used was not a bad one.
I disagree. I was on board but after seeing it in action I don't think there's any way to avoid getting to where we are now with a "young vets" strategy. It inherently requires you to use cap space and picks to end up with pretty much all young vets. This is a psychologically/leadership challenged roster that is missing useful seasoned veterans leading from the top of the roster and young guys pushing them to get better from the bottom.
htran is right, Jrue was a good move, he's a 2 way player which is not what we'd have gotten with those picks. It was an opportunity they took advantage of, but the team should have had the patience to stop there. If another opportunity came along take it, but Tyreke was a win now move which forced another win now move with Asik. Resigning Ryno instead of trading him will be a win now move. What team has ever successfully executed a win now strategy? It usually ends in you making things worse before your star player leaves you.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 10:05 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:17 pm to TigerinATL
quote:None at all. Boston can also swap 2017 1sts with Brooklyn.
No protection on that pick?
The only one with protection in the mix is the Lakers pick. If it is outside of the Top 3, Philly gets it. Imagine the Lakers end up with the 2nd worst record, but still hit that 31.9% chance of picking 4th. Philly could have 2 picks inside the top 4.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:19 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
I disagree. I was on board but after seeing it in action I don't think there's any way to avoid getting to where we are now with a "young vets" strategy. It inherently requires you to use cap space and picks to end up with pretty much all young vets. This is a psychologically/leadership challenged roster that is missing useful seasoned veterans leading from the top of the roster and young guys pushing them to get better from the bottom.
I think it could work with the right mix of players. Tyreke doesn't fit that mold. I think it's a valid method if your goal is to attract a big name FA to play with your young superstar.
I think we'd all feel a lot better about our situation if we were as good as we thought we were gonna be (7-5 in the West) with AD taking another step or leap forward from last year (serious MVP candidate). That hasn't happened, so it's kind of blowing up in our face.
We'd be fine with letting guys like Ryno and Gordon walk because we'd be able to make a strong pitch to all the best FAs that we're legit and one superstar can turn us from legit to perennial contenders.
Gentryfication got off to a very rocky start. We are still constantly dealing with months long injuries for starting players and it looks like we'll be another first round exit team, but that's not where we thought we'd be 6 months ago.
I guess it's fair to fault management for employing a strategy that banks on future success and the allure of playing with a guy like AD landing a guy we couldn't ever land normally. Demps probably looked ahead to the 16 and 17 summers and said if we can just get good enough to be one piece away, the superstars that become available in those years will be clamoring to join us. I guess it's fair to say that's a very high risk strategy.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 10:20 pm
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:23 pm to patendedgmf
quote:
None at all. Boston can also swap 2017 1sts with Brooklyn.
The only one with protection in the mix is the Lakers pick. If it is outside of the Top 3, Philly gets it. Imagine the Lakers end up with the 2nd worst record, but still hit that 31.9% chance of picking 4th. Philly could have 2 picks inside the top 4.
I guess we can say that trade raping terrible front offices is also a valid method for getting better
Also I am rooting extremely hard for the 6ers to get the 1st and 4th picks. I would love nothing more than for the Kobe farewell tank fest to amount to absolutely nothing. Also the more good players that go east, the better for us.
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