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re: Predict the 16 baseball regional host sites-updated predictions? Cajuns chances?
Posted on 5/29/16 at 2:05 am to hendersonshands
Posted on 5/29/16 at 2:05 am to hendersonshands
Thoughts:
If GA Southern upsets the Cajuns, I think South Alabama is out.
I think West Virginia might be playing for UNC's bid tomorrow. The Tar Heels have the most inflated RPI in history, and the committee is likely uninterested in having the ACC's 11th place team in the tournament.
Utah is playing for Oregon State's bid because no way a league with a sub-.500 champion gets 5 bids.
Creighton has the second most inflated RPI and does not deserved to get in if Xavier sweeps that league as expected.
If GA Southern upsets the Cajuns, I think South Alabama is out.
I think West Virginia might be playing for UNC's bid tomorrow. The Tar Heels have the most inflated RPI in history, and the committee is likely uninterested in having the ACC's 11th place team in the tournament.
Utah is playing for Oregon State's bid because no way a league with a sub-.500 champion gets 5 bids.
Creighton has the second most inflated RPI and does not deserved to get in if Xavier sweeps that league as expected.
This post was edited on 5/29/16 at 2:25 am
1
Posted on 5/29/16 at 9:03 am to Jwho77
quote:
If GA Southern upsets the Cajuns, I think South Alabama is out.
Yeah, you may be right. Their only saving grace is tying for the conference championship. They've been really bad over the past 10-15 games (which the committee takes into account). Their RPI of 42 isn't terrible and is usually good enough to get an at large 3 seed so they better pray for no stolen bids, especially because the Sun Belt doesn't deserve a 3rd team.
Next year when Coastal Carolina is in the Sun Belt, it should make the conference much more fun. Although, several Sun Belt teams are getting much better.
quote:
I think West Virginia might be playing for UNC's bid tomorrow. The Tar Heels have the most inflated RPI in history, and the committee is likely uninterested in having the ACC's 11th place team in the tournament.
UNC has no business going to the tournament. The 11th place team in conference doesn't deserve the postseason.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 12:34 pm to hendersonshands
What time tonight are the host sites anounced?
Anyone know?
Anyone know?
Posted on 5/29/16 at 1:07 pm to tigersint
I think 7 CST
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:03 pm to tigersint
7:30, announced on Twitter. Cajuns have done all they could to get a host. Won 10 in a row, regular season and tournament champions. Now we'll just wait.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:06 pm to hendersonshands
Gotta think that we get the host. Rite? Im realy hoping that we do.
Just graduated last Friday so would realy like to see one more regional series at home as a student.
Also realy would like to see us make it to OMAHA while still being a student, but first things first crossing my fingers that we get to host.
Just graduated last Friday so would realy like to see one more regional series at home as a student.
Also realy would like to see us make it to OMAHA while still being a student, but first things first crossing my fingers that we get to host.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:07 pm to hendersonshands
Only way the Cajuns don't host is if the NCAA pulls 2 West Coast hosts out of their rectums.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:08 pm to tigersint
Not sure. We're probably fighting for one of the last 3 spots. Root for WVU to hold on against TCU
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:12 pm to hendersonshands
Wow. I'd like to fight Rice's third base coach. Cannot believe he went.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:13 pm to hendersonshands
LOL that was so bad.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:45 pm to Jwho77
Southern Miss has a strong case to host.
ULL has a great RPI, but there is this weakness: wins = Tulane, Rice and a bunch of southland and sunbelt teams. 1 top 25 win (assuming Rice is there).
ULL has a great RPI, but there is this weakness: wins = Tulane, Rice and a bunch of southland and sunbelt teams. 1 top 25 win (assuming Rice is there).
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:49 pm to Overbrook
USM's resume is no better than the Cajuns who won both league titles. Plus, the Golden Eagles won their tourney at home going through the weaker bracket so less impressive.
Cajuns should host over them.
Cajuns should host over them.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 4:56 pm to Jwho77
I wonder how much head to head is taken into account, as Both TCU and Southern Miss have beaten the Cajuns.
Cajuns arguably had the better end of the season than most other teams in the nation winning their last 10 straight and sweeping the Sun Belt tourney.
Cajuns arguably had the better end of the season than most other teams in the nation winning their last 10 straight and sweeping the Sun Belt tourney.
This post was edited on 5/29/16 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 5/29/16 at 5:01 pm to Jwho77
I just said that USM presents a strong case.
And they do.
C-USA #5 league; sunbelt #10. Cajuns tied for 1st, USM 1.5 games back.
USM has 5 top 25 wins; ULL has 1
USM won head to head
RPI: ULL 15 USM 19
And they do.
C-USA #5 league; sunbelt #10. Cajuns tied for 1st, USM 1.5 games back.
USM has 5 top 25 wins; ULL has 1
USM won head to head
RPI: ULL 15 USM 19
This post was edited on 5/29/16 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 5/29/16 at 5:08 pm to Overbrook
The only Top 25 wins are Rice, all at home. FAU is now 28th, and that 1 win in a series loss is their marquee road win for the season. One midweek head-to-head at USM is meaningless.
This post was edited on 5/29/16 at 5:23 pm
Posted on 5/29/16 at 5:10 pm to tigersint
Yeah, looking deeper at TCU, they are a real threat to host.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 5:20 pm to Overbrook
Southern Miss finished 3rd in their conference. I think that's where we have the leg up.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 5:31 pm to Jwho77
I honestly think Lafayette is easily locked in as a host, unless the committee goes in heavily on the ACC and SEC, which I dont think is likely.
Miami, Florida, Texas A&M, Louisville, Miss State, Texas Tech, LSU, and Clemson the seeds.
South Carolina, Ole Miss, Florida State, Virginia, and TCU almost assuredly locked in.
That leaves 3 hosts for Arizona, Lafayette, Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina, North Carolina State, and a Big West team.
-Arizona is probably safe as a host. 22 RPI, 10-6 vs top 50, 41 SOS, 46 OOC SOS, will probably end season on a 6 game winning streak.
-Lafayette is 15th in RPI, won conference, 11-9 vs top 50, 22 SOS, 1 OOC SOS, won 10 games in a row.
-Southern Miss is 19th in RPI, 12-11 vs top 50, 27 SOS, 7 OOC SOS, won conference, 6-4 last 10.
-NC State is 10th in RPI, 19-17 vs top 50, 2 SOS, 23 OOC SOS, 3-7 last 10.
-Coastal Carolina is 13th in RPI, 7-8 vs top 50, 32 SOS, 4 OOC SOS, won conference, 10 wins in a row.
-UCSB is 24th in RPI, 3-2 vs top 50, 61 SOS, 33 OOC SOS, 13-11 in 8th best conference, 5-5 last 10.
In a perfect world, NC State, Lafayette, and Southern Miss would get the last three spots. I give Southern Miss the last spot over Coastal because of winning a better conference, and having a better record against the top 50.
We arent in a perfect world though. There will be a western host, so Arizona will take a spot, and as we've seen in the past, the committee will reward a smaller school for a great year. That, and already having 5 ACC hosts, gives both Lafayette and Southern Miss the nod over North Carolina State.
Miami, Florida, Texas A&M, Louisville, Miss State, Texas Tech, LSU, and Clemson the seeds.
South Carolina, Ole Miss, Florida State, Virginia, and TCU almost assuredly locked in.
That leaves 3 hosts for Arizona, Lafayette, Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina, North Carolina State, and a Big West team.
-Arizona is probably safe as a host. 22 RPI, 10-6 vs top 50, 41 SOS, 46 OOC SOS, will probably end season on a 6 game winning streak.
-Lafayette is 15th in RPI, won conference, 11-9 vs top 50, 22 SOS, 1 OOC SOS, won 10 games in a row.
-Southern Miss is 19th in RPI, 12-11 vs top 50, 27 SOS, 7 OOC SOS, won conference, 6-4 last 10.
-NC State is 10th in RPI, 19-17 vs top 50, 2 SOS, 23 OOC SOS, 3-7 last 10.
-Coastal Carolina is 13th in RPI, 7-8 vs top 50, 32 SOS, 4 OOC SOS, won conference, 10 wins in a row.
-UCSB is 24th in RPI, 3-2 vs top 50, 61 SOS, 33 OOC SOS, 13-11 in 8th best conference, 5-5 last 10.
In a perfect world, NC State, Lafayette, and Southern Miss would get the last three spots. I give Southern Miss the last spot over Coastal because of winning a better conference, and having a better record against the top 50.
We arent in a perfect world though. There will be a western host, so Arizona will take a spot, and as we've seen in the past, the committee will reward a smaller school for a great year. That, and already having 5 ACC hosts, gives both Lafayette and Southern Miss the nod over North Carolina State.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 5:42 pm to devils1854
Last 3 host i can see.
Arizona
Lafayette
Costal Carolina
Arizona
Lafayette
Costal Carolina
Posted on 5/29/16 at 5:52 pm to devils1854
quote:
That, and already having 5 ACC hosts, gives both Lafayette and Southern Miss the nod over North Carolina State.
Yeah, North Carolina State worries me. I think Arizona is almost assuredly a lock due to the rest of the West being a dumpster fire and the committee wanting to spread the love.
Our record versus the RPI top-25 is our biggest negative. We have a good record vs RPI top 50 and 100, great SOS and nonconference SOS, solid RPI and 10 wins in a row are all big check marks on the committee's list (usually)
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