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re: Oil stocks...are you buying?

Posted on 5/27/16 at 9:16 am to
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 5/27/16 at 9:16 am to
Would I be late to the game if I went into Shell, Exxon and/or COP in the next week or so? Have a few grand that I would like to get into the market soon. This would be a long term hold. Mainly looking for dividends and long term growth.
This post was edited on 5/27/16 at 9:17 am
Posted by dkreller
Laffy
Member since Jan 2009
30300 posts
Posted on 5/27/16 at 11:09 am to
Definitely not too late considering oil hasn't hit 50 yet.
This post was edited on 5/27/16 at 11:09 am
Posted by Porker Face
Eden Isle
Member since Feb 2012
15337 posts
Posted on 5/27/16 at 11:29 am to
Who has the balls to buy some uwti?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 6/3/16 at 2:31 pm to
Rig count went up. Wow. First time in a long, long time.
Posted by Omada
Member since Jun 2015
695 posts
Posted on 6/3/16 at 4:22 pm to
I have been expecting it to eventually. $40 and $45 are breakeven points for a lot of producers. I've also noticed that most/nearly all bankruptcies among producers are for restructuring, not liquidation, so the bankrupt companies can keep pumping at least until the bankruptcy is settled. We might have seen the oil price bottom (who knows, really?), but I think we may be in a low price environment for a few/several more years.
Posted by Fat Bastard
coach, investor, gambler
Member since Mar 2009
72647 posts
Posted on 6/5/16 at 9:07 am to
Posted by Omada
Member since Jun 2015
695 posts
Posted on 6/8/16 at 10:45 am to
EIA report says last week saw a drawdown of 3.2 million barrels of oil in storage. However, gasoline storage increased by 1 million instead of falling, and distillates increased by 1.4 million instead of falling.

Help me here, O&G guys. Don't gasoline and distillates require more oil, like 2 gallons of oil make a gallon of gas or so, depending on oil quality? If so, would that indicate oil supply was greater than demand last week?
Posted by Kramer26
St. George, LA
Member since Jan 2005
6404 posts
Posted on 6/8/16 at 12:56 pm to
CHK has been trending upward and I expect that to continue.
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10266 posts
Posted on 6/8/16 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

Help me here, O&G guys. Don't gasoline and distillates require more oil, like 2 gallons of oil make a gallon of gas or so, depending on oil quality? If so, would that indicate oil supply was greater than demand last week?


I've been curious what the relationship to this is as well. The supply does seem to be tightening up ever so slightly, but there also just seems to be a lot of "shifting around".

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Jun 08, 2016: -3.226M
Jun 02, 2016: -1.366M
May 25, 2016: -4.226M
May 18, 2016: +1.310M
May 11, 2016: -3.410M
May 04, 2016: +2.784M

U.S. Gasoline Inventories

Jun 08, 2016: +1.010M
Jun 02, 2016: -1.492M
May 25, 2016: +2.043M
May 18, 2016: -2.496M
May 11, 2016: -1.231M
May 04, 2016: +0.536M

U.S. EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks

Jun 08, 2016: +1.754M
Jun 02, 2016: -1.255M
May 25, 2016: -1.284M
May 18, 2016: -3.170M
May 11, 2016: -1.647M
May 04, 2016: -1.261M


There have also been some supply glitches lately; namely the Canadian wildfires and the Nigerian Avenger "woes", but the amounts left in storage are near record levels. It just doesn't seem there is much of an uptick in demand. I think oil collapses to the 30's again. Just my opinion.

Posted by Dan Bilzerian
..on my yacht or jet.
Member since Dec 2014
1864 posts
Posted on 6/8/16 at 5:23 pm to
HERO declared filed Chp 11 again Monday morning. I'm about to get out with my 6% gain.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50344 posts
Posted on 6/8/16 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

HERO declared filed Chp 11 again Monday morning. I'm about to get out with my 6% gain.



The ol' chapter 22
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50344 posts
Posted on 6/8/16 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

I've also noticed that most/nearly all bankruptcies among producers are for restructuring, not liquidation,


no one is gonna liquidate(E&P)
This post was edited on 6/9/16 at 7:12 am
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 6/9/16 at 5:42 am to
HERO is intriguing to me as a possible aggressive, speculative play.

The bet would be on assets, and the bet would be that there wouldn't be another bk after this one.

The book value after this bk should be entertaining. I think it's close to $30 right now, but haven't looked in a while.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 6/10/16 at 2:26 pm to
@nd weekly report in a row we've added rigs/ B/H survey, +3. We're + 12 the last two weeks.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19600 posts
Posted on 6/10/16 at 2:38 pm to
You are seeing the next two years or more playing out barring anything crazy in the ME. Oil will get up around 50, maybe get to 60 and shale cranks up for a 4-6 months and price retreat.
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10266 posts
Posted on 6/14/16 at 4:04 pm to
Dreadful oil numbers this afternoon. All three categories this time too.


U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Jun 14, 2016: +1.518M

U.S. API Weekly Distillates Stocks


Jun 14, 2016: +3.725M

U.S. API Weekly Gasoline Stock


Jun 14, 2016: +2.254M
This post was edited on 6/14/16 at 5:52 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 6/17/16 at 1:14 pm to
9 add'l rigs. 10 as one gas rig was added.
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10266 posts
Posted on 6/17/16 at 3:36 pm to
Wild couple past two days with oil. Probably due to OpEx witching
Posted by tke_swamprat
Houma, LA
Member since Aug 2004
9759 posts
Posted on 6/19/16 at 8:59 am to
I almost bought some chevron or she'll Friday but decided against it. I'm waiting it out.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18924 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 10:31 am to
quote:

I almost bought some chevron or she'll Friday but decided against it. I'm waiting it out.

Looks like waiting might pay off. I like MRO below $13. They seem to be quick to recover. MUR is volatile too.

WTI is back to $41 after spending some time above $50. That seems alarming.
Anyone have any predictions? What happened? Did companies start drilling as soon as it hit $45 and $50 on the way up??
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