re: Oil stocks...are you buying?

2017 oil is already at $50.

Go here.

LINK

Click either the F contract for Brent, or the WTI contract. Should take you out to 2024.

These are futures contracts, and unless you're getting them managed, or have some idea what you're doing, you don't want to play here. A small amount of margin (I think as low as $2500) controls 1000 barrels, or $50K worth of oil. I bought the contracts in full as I didn't want daily margin calls, or didn't want to watch every day.

I made a pure bet, although I did base it off of fundamentals, and I could have lost upwards of $40K.

Again, I posted previously, I thought oil had bottomed, and I thought $47 ish for 2017 was very realistic. I also mentioned this was a speculative bet that I was comfortable with. I was comfortable with. I didn't advise anyone on here to follow me in. Everyone has their own comfort level, their own risk tolerance, and their own personal finance to consider.

My losers are posted on here as well. All over different threads. I made bank on oil, but I've previously lost on natural gas. So I'm up, but just because I banked over $50K here, and the entire trade isn't unwound yet, doesn't mean I didn't lose $23K on natural gas earlier. Now I generally have more winners than losers, but I bought my first stock when I was 16, and I rarely buy future's contracts, but this long term oil trade pleased my eye, and if it would have gone the wrong way, I would have closed it and taken my loss quickly.

Trades like this are rare. I'm long silver contracts, and up a bunch there as well. And a large part of that trade is already closed as well.

There might not be another one of these for another couple of years, but I jumped on there two. Silver was purely on janet Yellen's comments, and I went long over 9 months ago. I went longer after reading Doc Fenton's comments here (LINK /) and fact checking, and then a bunch more research on my own.

Janet Yellen isn't my favorite person, but she inadvertently telegraphs a lot, at least to me she does. Also, all the doomsday oil analysts had oil way, way oversold.

I got two gifts from two persons, presumably some of the "smartest people in the room." I acted after proper due diligence. I got up, and I got out. And I probably left a boat load of money on the table, but I got out.

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Shell isn't looking to ramp up deep water operations in the GOM until 2018 now.

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we're still working though!

We just delayed the delivery date for the VITO wells systems until 2018. 18 systems. However we are supposed to start working on some this year. we had 9 for Appomattox we just finished. could all change.

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still working though

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True dat....y'all are keeping the dust from completely settling at my district.

Oil has been very, very good to traders who are watching closely every day. I agree. My realized gains, which is the only way I consider money made, are huge this year, and it is almost 100% oil related.

can one of you oil guys explain to me how oil is not going to $5/barrel or less in 30-40 years? There is no way that Internal combustion engine cars will still be on the road then. Im not a fan of electric cars today bc of things like how long it takes to supercharge but surely within 20-30 years the tech will be way better and with way less moving parts they will dominate. Is there any way that mass solar panels in equatorial and desert environments won't have replaced fossil fuel power plants. Is there any way that oil will still be burned on any large scale. So if the certainty of long-term collapse in demand is accepted by players such as Saudi Arabia (which is why I assume have they decided to pump all they can right now?) all this talk of charts and US shale producers and Iran and Russia and a production cap and such is essentially nonsense. The price of oil, long-term, has nowhere to go but down. What it will do tomorrow, or this summer, or next year is anyone's guess. But it is a fact that the long-term trend strongly influences the expectations/probabilities of short term plays. With plays in the direction of the long-term trend having positive expectations and plays against that trend having negative expectations.

The simple answer is that the majority of smart people don't think electric cars will make that big of an impact over the next 20-30 years. Technology and infrastructure still a ways away. Developing nations would be even further away to adopt. Solar and wind power wouldn't even exist today if it wasn't for subsidies. They are not cost efficient, and will likely never be as long as oil is plentiful, or some unforeseen technology breakthrough occurs.

Besides, oil is used in nearly every single product you touch every day.

Bought more DLNG today.
I've been looking at Bonanza Creek Energy, BCEI. Anyone know anything about it. I'm not very impressed with their acreage, but there has been lots of movement in price here and might be something I'll give a try.

In other oil stock news Caza O&G just announced a reverse split of 560 million shares for 1. Never heard of such a thing.

$51 September brent. I left a lot of money on my long oil trade. Hard for me not to look back and be bitter. My 2017 oil contracts unwound at $48ish are obviously trading much higher. Ah well, never fret taking a profit. But for me extremely difficult to not look back and wish I hadn't been quite as conservative.

Some on here are talking about a correction back down. Where I'm at is still wondering when we reach equilibrium and start trading sideways.

I'm not sure, but it looks like we've had a couple of points where we reached a plateau, but seem to be slowly finding higher highs. Rig count has been steadily declining, actually recently the decline seems to have accelerated.

My CVX buy in at the level I mentioned earlier is now at 101-102. Equity side of the trade. I also had sold naked puts on USO and bought both long calls and had one large synthetic long.

I suspect CVX run up ends before other equity run ups due to downstream, whereas others, once they break through won't have this as something weighing them down. They had lack of downstream holding them back, and also depressing their price points further.

Spent some time early this morning closing down and putting everything on auto pilot. Off to LG, everyone have a safe and great Memorial Day break. We get to live an absolutely fantastic life in the greatest country ever known to man becuase of brave American service members. Thanks for all that have served, and a special thanks to combat veterans. You are truly America's greatest generation.

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Off to LG,

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Lake Garda? Italia?

I think it's a pump and dump. I hope the dump gets to , well let's say $1.11 a share