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Started By
Message
re: Oil stocks...are you buying?
Posted on 8/1/16 at 4:56 pm to rocket31
Posted on 8/1/16 at 4:56 pm to rocket31
I'm just responding for you as you were the last post and it was convenient.
I'm personally going to wait, and then buy integrated oil, CVX, not COP. I'm also going to wait, and try to do what I did last time this happened. Buy futures outright.
So the only thing I did differently is I bought oil vix (ovx). I've sold to close some already, and am playing on the insurance company's money now (so to speak). I'm going to wait, cash in ovx if it works out this way, and trade again, exactly as last time.
Silver an oil trading, and vix insurance, have been extremely good to me in 2016.
All I know is what I know, and what I think I know. If I don't know it, or think I know it, I stay away.
Rig count has been increasing along with supply. How long to wait to buy is the only remaining question. It's not now for me. I don't understand solar, Amazon, tech, or most of the posts on the PT.
Simple guy form Iowa muddling along. Trying to make IowaGolfer's portfolio great again. MIGPGA! Big league! Hugely! Trust me!
I'm personally going to wait, and then buy integrated oil, CVX, not COP. I'm also going to wait, and try to do what I did last time this happened. Buy futures outright.
So the only thing I did differently is I bought oil vix (ovx). I've sold to close some already, and am playing on the insurance company's money now (so to speak). I'm going to wait, cash in ovx if it works out this way, and trade again, exactly as last time.
Silver an oil trading, and vix insurance, have been extremely good to me in 2016.
All I know is what I know, and what I think I know. If I don't know it, or think I know it, I stay away.
Rig count has been increasing along with supply. How long to wait to buy is the only remaining question. It's not now for me. I don't understand solar, Amazon, tech, or most of the posts on the PT.
Simple guy form Iowa muddling along. Trying to make IowaGolfer's portfolio great again. MIGPGA! Big league! Hugely! Trust me!
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 4:59 pm
1
Posted on 8/1/16 at 5:03 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Simple guy form Iowa muddling along. Trying to make IowaGolfer's portfolio great again. MIGPGA! Big league! Hugely! Trust me!
Posted on 8/11/16 at 9:48 am to TJG210
Not replying to the last poster, just adding to the thread.
It's not clear to me how yesterday's headlines read that the oil inventory build was surprising. Rig count has been steadily increasing, and output started to increase as soon as brent and wti breached $30 / $35.
The lesson in this for me is relearning many times the experts have no more idea than anyone else, and in the case of the guys on this board who are involved in energy, probably less of an idea.
It's not clear to me how yesterday's headlines read that the oil inventory build was surprising. Rig count has been steadily increasing, and output started to increase as soon as brent and wti breached $30 / $35.
The lesson in this for me is relearning many times the experts have no more idea than anyone else, and in the case of the guys on this board who are involved in energy, probably less of an idea.
This post was edited on 8/11/16 at 9:49 am
Posted on 8/11/16 at 10:10 am to Iowa Golfer
If you want to make a trade, you can look at the USO. If oil keeps being range bound (40-50) you can sell puts and collect quite a bit
Posted on 8/11/16 at 11:30 am to b-rab2
quote:
If oil keeps being range bound
I don't have enough comfort level that it is going to be range bound. My suspicion is that we are going down from here. I'm not close to being in my comfort level to trade.
I do track USO. I look at a bit at DBO also, but with commodities I'm almost exclusively using some Nuveen funds, and US Commodity Funds. Also cash and futures prices and open interest on contracts, options and the COT reports specifically from producers, institutions and hedgers.
But I'm open to other thoughts about what you think pricing is going to do, but as I'm reading you, I'm assuming you're thinking we're trading in a range with no real breakouts?
Posted on 8/11/16 at 11:37 am to Iowa Golfer
Fire/explosion at Motiva refinery in LA this morning. They refine 235k barrels a day.
Posted on 8/11/16 at 12:06 pm to Iowa Golfer
I agree with you golfer...
I'm holding silver, cash in hand and bitcoin
I'm holding silver, cash in hand and bitcoin
Posted on 8/11/16 at 12:09 pm to Iowa Golfer
As we've seen the $46-50 range is where the oil companies will pick up rigs and hedge production. I don't think we see $55-60 this year which is not good for me being in the oil patch. On the other hand, I think $38 is the low which again, I don't think anyone really makes money at. I am willing to trade that range with some confidence(USO).
Posted on 8/11/16 at 12:24 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
But I'm open to other thoughts about what you think pricing is going to do, but as I'm reading you, I'm assuming you're thinking we're trading in a range with no real breakouts?
I don't see any data that would let us have a break out. As soon as production comes down, we pick up rigs and frac crews and bring that once depleting production back to record levels again. I follow a little company called Abraxas energy ($AXAS). They have picked up rigs again in the permian and bakken. I follow them because I believe they are the small time oil company that gives me insite to what people are thinking and doing outside of the big boys. My dad once told me " the big boys find all the new big oil, but its the little guys that make the world go around." To some degree that is correct. The little guys have a lot of production.
Posted on 8/11/16 at 12:45 pm to b-rab2
Thanks everyone. Interesting idea about following a smaller player like AXAS as a leading indicator.
FWIW, oil price concerns me as it isn't 100% supply driven, which puts me in somewhat of a contrarian line of thin king about this.
Anyway, good information as always in this particular thread. Hopefully everyone is still making money.
FWIW, oil price concerns me as it isn't 100% supply driven, which puts me in somewhat of a contrarian line of thin king about this.
Anyway, good information as always in this particular thread. Hopefully everyone is still making money.
This post was edited on 8/11/16 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 8/11/16 at 1:57 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Hopefully everyone is still making money.
sure am. while still getting my dividends on my oil until i reach price point i want to sell at i went ahead and bought some nice monthly dividend paying stocks in a different sector paying fantastic dividends and they are steady stocks. I bought a ETN also which is my volatile play which i am watching closely with also a killer dividend monthly.
Posted on 8/11/16 at 2:02 pm to Fat Bastard
Not really in oil but in other things 
Posted on 8/11/16 at 2:07 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Hopefully everyone is still making money.
on oil?
Posted on 8/11/16 at 2:23 pm to Fat Bastard
Why a note? Curious, I've always avoided exchange traded notes.
Posted on 8/11/16 at 2:51 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Why a note? Curious, I've always avoided exchange traded notes.
couldn't resist returns. Plus it was a note most bad mouthed back in 2012 and it is still around and doing fine. Just a short term play unlike the other two stocks i just purchased.
Posted on 8/12/16 at 7:53 am to Fat Bastard
Does anyone have any thoughts on RES?
Posted on 8/12/16 at 9:36 am to Tigahs2007
Personally I would think downstream in a depressed oil pricing environment is better. But I have no idea what your goal is. If your goal for example is to make a play on the eventual recovery and stability of oil at some future time, then this might be o.k. if you think it is viable.
I'm taking more than a brief look at WNR, which to me seems to be at the opposite end of production, and maybe better for my purposes. But we also have tight crack spreads and they are carrying debt due to a recent acquisition. They own 300 convenience stores.
I might buy a small amount of WNR. But mostly I am waiting on the election, and any correction we get before committing a lot of money. If we get any significant correction I am going to load up on two things. A market etf that pays a dividend, and I'm going to try to add consumer discretionary, tech stocks and a pharma, as I own none of these excepting maybe in funds.
I'm taking more than a brief look at WNR, which to me seems to be at the opposite end of production, and maybe better for my purposes. But we also have tight crack spreads and they are carrying debt due to a recent acquisition. They own 300 convenience stores.
I might buy a small amount of WNR. But mostly I am waiting on the election, and any correction we get before committing a lot of money. If we get any significant correction I am going to load up on two things. A market etf that pays a dividend, and I'm going to try to add consumer discretionary, tech stocks and a pharma, as I own none of these excepting maybe in funds.
Posted on 8/12/16 at 12:30 pm to Iowa Golfer
Looks like we added 15 rigs this past week.
Posted on 8/12/16 at 12:34 pm to LSUneaux
Any board opinions on WLL?
Posted on 8/12/16 at 12:49 pm to ragacamps
Brother and Dad have shares.. I do not.. I believe they have a lot of DUC's in the bakken.
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