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Message
re: Elon Musk Says Tesla Will Be $1 Trillion Dollars Soon
Posted on 6/28/16 at 8:34 pm to dabigfella
Posted on 6/28/16 at 8:34 pm to dabigfella
It's like teaching people to eat with an entirely new utensil. They're still cars, but just think about the infrastructure around combustion engines...
Diesel specialist. Jiffy Lube. Gas stations. Combustion engines are so mature a slew of niche industries have sprung up around them.
Tesla is still suffering from an inability to charge (refuel in a sense) routinely and easily. With the battery development still lagging, this is a huge logistical nightmare for them in being able to appeal as a feasible alternative to combustion engines.
Say your Tesla breaks down. Do you take it to the mechanic? Conversely, can a mechanic make a living in Des Moines working on Teslas? Can an entrepreneur start a business refueling Teslas in Smyrna, Georgia, and expect to be successful?
The infrastructure, headaches and odds are stacked against Tesla over the short and medium term. Nevermind a new carmaker with little to no experience creating a car type and brand never before seen has a steep battle ahead.
But SpaceX is going to help Musk float SC and Tesla, IMO. They are ready to make a quantum leap in space travel. They are orders of magnitude cheaper than their similarly incredibly deep pocketed and yet heavily subsidized and hugely advantaged opponents...and they're only going to get cheaper, more reliable, and smarter about how they do what they do.
Musk will be able to float his battery and car companies using his Space Travel company. Book it.
Diesel specialist. Jiffy Lube. Gas stations. Combustion engines are so mature a slew of niche industries have sprung up around them.
Tesla is still suffering from an inability to charge (refuel in a sense) routinely and easily. With the battery development still lagging, this is a huge logistical nightmare for them in being able to appeal as a feasible alternative to combustion engines.
Say your Tesla breaks down. Do you take it to the mechanic? Conversely, can a mechanic make a living in Des Moines working on Teslas? Can an entrepreneur start a business refueling Teslas in Smyrna, Georgia, and expect to be successful?
The infrastructure, headaches and odds are stacked against Tesla over the short and medium term. Nevermind a new carmaker with little to no experience creating a car type and brand never before seen has a steep battle ahead.
But SpaceX is going to help Musk float SC and Tesla, IMO. They are ready to make a quantum leap in space travel. They are orders of magnitude cheaper than their similarly incredibly deep pocketed and yet heavily subsidized and hugely advantaged opponents...and they're only going to get cheaper, more reliable, and smarter about how they do what they do.
Musk will be able to float his battery and car companies using his Space Travel company. Book it.
This post was edited on 6/28/16 at 8:36 pm
1
Posted on 6/28/16 at 9:03 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Is it just me or does dabigfella sound just like lsutraderman? It's eerie.
Posted on 6/28/16 at 9:29 pm to Sigma
He's not. Was around in the past. Returned after a jaunt through Banhammerland...
Posted on 6/28/16 at 10:36 pm to GFunk
again im in the gas station business so I hope electric doesn't take off, but with teslas from what I understand they have a supercharger network that is free I think they collect power from solar panels. So there isn't really a need for charging stations that generate money like gas stations.
More than that, the battery issue is a tech problem, I have a hard time believing 10 years from now that they wont get battery charging times lower. Im just saying the overall costs of production have to be significantly lower bc there aren't as many parts. Right? I know car margins are very low but if tesla could lower battery costs a ton with this gigafactory can't their margins expand like crazy? And conversely if apple is getting into electric cars, and has $230B in cash or whatever couldnt apple in theory build multiple gigafactories and really use economies of scale to their favor? It seems like Teslas big issue is cash and apple has a shite ton of cash so assuming the tech is the same, which it is bc tesla doesn't have tech and uses panasonic batteries, wouldn't apple be the one to dominate the electric space?
I dont know much about it all, just saw musk calling for a $1T valuation and figured we could discuss.
More than that, the battery issue is a tech problem, I have a hard time believing 10 years from now that they wont get battery charging times lower. Im just saying the overall costs of production have to be significantly lower bc there aren't as many parts. Right? I know car margins are very low but if tesla could lower battery costs a ton with this gigafactory can't their margins expand like crazy? And conversely if apple is getting into electric cars, and has $230B in cash or whatever couldnt apple in theory build multiple gigafactories and really use economies of scale to their favor? It seems like Teslas big issue is cash and apple has a shite ton of cash so assuming the tech is the same, which it is bc tesla doesn't have tech and uses panasonic batteries, wouldn't apple be the one to dominate the electric space?
I dont know much about it all, just saw musk calling for a $1T valuation and figured we could discuss.
This post was edited on 6/28/16 at 10:37 pm
Posted on 6/29/16 at 7:00 am to dabigfella
I read stuff like this, and not based on anything, I assume the market is due for a huge correction sometime soon.
I could see a Clinton administration artificially pushing the valuations of publicly traded companies like this however.
Unfortunately for "them", events in Great Britain placed a speed bump in the road for "them".
Certainly the economy and GB have made it more difficult for Janet Yellen, who I think is hugely political and inappropriate, to attempt to influence the outcome of our election. So maybe there is a chance that market forces will be no more encumbered than they already are.
I could see a Clinton administration artificially pushing the valuations of publicly traded companies like this however.
Unfortunately for "them", events in Great Britain placed a speed bump in the road for "them".
Certainly the economy and GB have made it more difficult for Janet Yellen, who I think is hugely political and inappropriate, to attempt to influence the outcome of our election. So maybe there is a chance that market forces will be no more encumbered than they already are.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 8:22 am to Iowa Golfer
Golfer, can you expand on your opinion re: Yellen's political proclivities in terms of how she operates? I'm not doubting you, I'd just like your take.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 9:22 am to GFunk
quote:
Tesla is still suffering from an inability to charge (refuel in a sense) routinely and easily. With the battery development still lagging, this is a huge logistical nightmare for them in being able to appeal as a feasible alternative to combustion engines. Say your Tesla breaks down. Do you take it to the mechanic? Conversely, can a mechanic make a living in Des Moines working on Teslas? Can an entrepreneur start a business refueling Teslas in Smyrna, Georgia, and expect to be successful? The infrastructure, headaches and odds are stacked against Tesla over the short and medium term. Nevermind a new carmaker with little to no experience creating a car type and brand never before seen has a steep battle ahead.
I'm not so much arguing your points, but from what I gathered
-They recharge in a night of up to 200+ miles
-They have the fast charging stations, that can even swap out a battery scattered along interstate highways all over
-I thought I read that Tesla will send out service techs to fix your vehicle, not sure the cost of this, but it seems much more convenient than conventional means
idk. Maybe I'm wrong in what I've understood, but it seems like they've got a few of the bigger issues addressed in a reasonable manner
Posted on 6/29/16 at 9:30 am to jp90
they do send out service techs but im sure thats only in major cities. There's no way pierrefart louisiana tesla owners get that feature
Posted on 6/29/16 at 11:08 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Certainly the economy and GB have made it more difficult for Janet Yellen, who I think is hugely political and inappropriate, to attempt to influence the outcome of our election. So maybe there is a chance that market forces will be no more encumbered than they already are.
I was listening to a Peter Schiff podcast yesterday and agree with his assertion that brexit handed Janet "hack" Yellen and golden goose. An easy out.
Ep. 176: Brexit Is Not The Reason; It's The Catalyst
Yes, he's a permabear, so understand that and listen with that bias in mind.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 2:39 pm to TigerDeBaiter
I listened to the clip. I'm neither a bull, nor a bear for the record. I'm like the Italian guy in the book Catch 22, I'm whatever I need to be in order to attempt to be on the correct side. Having said this, Peter Schiff has some interesting points, but I don't follow him, or any talking heads, especially gold bugs.
With respect to the above quote, it is my opinion some of her comments early on in her tenure were political. Specifically the income inequality debacle. If you recall, it was a Presidential election year, and Obama picked it up, and ran with it. Almost as if she floated a test balloon. Other times, and again, not as much lately, her comments seemed to be both ill advised, AND peculiarly timed.
Now I don't like her, or her background. I'll just state that upfront. But I don't think the fact I don't like many people who arise to power from no practical experience, and only a higher education and government background, makes my take on her completely skewed as there are several others that agree with me. At least that's what I find if I Google some specific things she has said and done.
So anyway, I'm either paranoid, or I tend question certain things that keep happening and the way they are timed. This is no different than me questioning POTUS comments about an FBI investigation, both in terms of appropriateness and timing. I question things that seem strange to me.
quote:heads.
Golfer, can you expand on your opinion re: Yellen's political proclivities in terms of how she operates? I'm not doubting you, I'd just like your take.
With respect to the above quote, it is my opinion some of her comments early on in her tenure were political. Specifically the income inequality debacle. If you recall, it was a Presidential election year, and Obama picked it up, and ran with it. Almost as if she floated a test balloon. Other times, and again, not as much lately, her comments seemed to be both ill advised, AND peculiarly timed.
Now I don't like her, or her background. I'll just state that upfront. But I don't think the fact I don't like many people who arise to power from no practical experience, and only a higher education and government background, makes my take on her completely skewed as there are several others that agree with me. At least that's what I find if I Google some specific things she has said and done.
So anyway, I'm either paranoid, or I tend question certain things that keep happening and the way they are timed. This is no different than me questioning POTUS comments about an FBI investigation, both in terms of appropriateness and timing. I question things that seem strange to me.
This post was edited on 6/29/16 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 6/29/16 at 2:49 pm to Iowa Golfer
Iowa Golfer,All I know is political headwinds are always going to surround the market, but the next 30 years investing will be different from the way it was growing up. When i was a kid banks gave up 7-8% on your savings account, today you get like .01% or whatever. 20x earnings is not a crazy multiple in this low rate environment and as long as these companies grow earnings like the big ones Amazon,Google,Facebook are doing its hard to not be invested in them. I truly believe Amazon,Google,Facebook are your big 3 horseman for the future. Apple has a ton of cash if they do something with it, and I think Tesla can be one if they get this all together, they aren't really a car company but more of an energy company to me.
What are your companies of the future Iowa Golfer? I just have a hard time thinking the procter gambles,johnson and johnsons, and all the other big dividend names of the past are going to be the ones to own in the future. Sure amazon,google,facebook dont pay dividends but what are their total returns over the last few years vs the dividend titans.
What are your companies of the future Iowa Golfer? I just have a hard time thinking the procter gambles,johnson and johnsons, and all the other big dividend names of the past are going to be the ones to own in the future. Sure amazon,google,facebook dont pay dividends but what are their total returns over the last few years vs the dividend titans.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 3:34 pm to dabigfella
Inputs and infrastructure. All the ones you mentioned above still need silver until a replacement is found.
They all need infrastructure.
What I've been doing some of is buying property (bare land) where there is a sudden infrastructure explosion.
I know a guy that lays fiber optic cable nationwide, and he and I have bought some land together anticipating that there was a reason that the infrastructure got delivered,or connected to areas with no development.
So far not much, except we hit on one parcel adjacent to a new Wal Mart. Made it worth it certainly.
I know I'm likely missing opportunity, but I'm not a believer in FB. I've been playing around with maybe taking a position in GOOG, because I think I've been pretty closed minded about the FANG new fangled stocks that are in fashion.
I'm not going to buy Amazon. I'll never buy Tesla. Or CRM. Or a laundry list of other stocks that make little or no money. Some of them without even a path to begin to make money. At some point companies need to turn a profit. I'd maybe trade their options, but I'm not going to own something I don't understand, and I understand one thing, eventually a profit needs to be turned. A lot of them show huge balance sheet entries for intellectual property and intangibles. I'm not comfortable with that. Just as in the oil sector assets proved (once again) to be meaningless when we had a correction event, so to will these prove the same eventually.
I understand that stuff as that's part of the valuation of my business. But I understand how banker's generally discount that. My banker says I have character, capital and capacity. Some banker on here once said profits are nice, but how much cash do you have? I've incorporated that in my life.
I'm in as much of capital preservation mode as I am in growth mode. My aggressive speculation plays are well documented on here. I sold off 20K shares of ERN at a profit, and held on to another 20K. I lost on NBG. I'm in a penny called AIVI, which just got bought by an investment banker. I've spoken to him, and it's 50/50 whether I take a haircut, or not. I hit big on both Fannie and Freddie, but those are long gone. My serious money, which consists of mostly equal portions of a lot of assets classes (including bonds, real estate and physical silver) isn't, becuase it's boring.
Probably more boring than anyone else's portfolio on here. Bare land. Farm land. Some walnut trees. Silver. MMM, A and X. Muni bonds. Utilities. Integrated oil. A small part of a casino. Hog confinement buildings. Warrants. I own a hotel room. Condotel. various assorted stuff that is mostly predictable. If you went through the list of individual securities I owned, you'd think I was 80 years old. But I have no issue staying in cash, and trying to time the market bottoms to buy more conservative long term holds. I think I'm 15% cash right now. So I'm not a DCA, or a true buy and hold guy. Because I sometimes try to time, somethings sell, and sometime buy the same security back. I own a boring annuity, no longer sold becuase they lost their arse, which guarantees total market returns, or 10%. It has paid me guaranteed market returns some years less tehir fees, and 10% in other years. I own a universal life policy with low expenses that I overfund. Boring stuff.
Consistency always outperforms occasional brilliance if you're a guy like me.
They all need infrastructure.
What I've been doing some of is buying property (bare land) where there is a sudden infrastructure explosion.
I know a guy that lays fiber optic cable nationwide, and he and I have bought some land together anticipating that there was a reason that the infrastructure got delivered,or connected to areas with no development.
So far not much, except we hit on one parcel adjacent to a new Wal Mart. Made it worth it certainly.
I know I'm likely missing opportunity, but I'm not a believer in FB. I've been playing around with maybe taking a position in GOOG, because I think I've been pretty closed minded about the FANG new fangled stocks that are in fashion.
I'm not going to buy Amazon. I'll never buy Tesla. Or CRM. Or a laundry list of other stocks that make little or no money. Some of them without even a path to begin to make money. At some point companies need to turn a profit. I'd maybe trade their options, but I'm not going to own something I don't understand, and I understand one thing, eventually a profit needs to be turned. A lot of them show huge balance sheet entries for intellectual property and intangibles. I'm not comfortable with that. Just as in the oil sector assets proved (once again) to be meaningless when we had a correction event, so to will these prove the same eventually.
I understand that stuff as that's part of the valuation of my business. But I understand how banker's generally discount that. My banker says I have character, capital and capacity. Some banker on here once said profits are nice, but how much cash do you have? I've incorporated that in my life.
I'm in as much of capital preservation mode as I am in growth mode. My aggressive speculation plays are well documented on here. I sold off 20K shares of ERN at a profit, and held on to another 20K. I lost on NBG. I'm in a penny called AIVI, which just got bought by an investment banker. I've spoken to him, and it's 50/50 whether I take a haircut, or not. I hit big on both Fannie and Freddie, but those are long gone. My serious money, which consists of mostly equal portions of a lot of assets classes (including bonds, real estate and physical silver) isn't, becuase it's boring.
Probably more boring than anyone else's portfolio on here. Bare land. Farm land. Some walnut trees. Silver. MMM, A and X. Muni bonds. Utilities. Integrated oil. A small part of a casino. Hog confinement buildings. Warrants. I own a hotel room. Condotel. various assorted stuff that is mostly predictable. If you went through the list of individual securities I owned, you'd think I was 80 years old. But I have no issue staying in cash, and trying to time the market bottoms to buy more conservative long term holds. I think I'm 15% cash right now. So I'm not a DCA, or a true buy and hold guy. Because I sometimes try to time, somethings sell, and sometime buy the same security back. I own a boring annuity, no longer sold becuase they lost their arse, which guarantees total market returns, or 10%. It has paid me guaranteed market returns some years less tehir fees, and 10% in other years. I own a universal life policy with low expenses that I overfund. Boring stuff.
Consistency always outperforms occasional brilliance if you're a guy like me.
Posted on 7/12/16 at 12:33 pm to Iowa Golfer
this stock is just savage, its all the way back up and seems to have more negativity than ever around it. I dont even know what to think of thing, but I will say I watched Amazon be shite on for years about lack of earnings and tesla seems to be in the same manner. Musk is such a grab bag and I dont know whether he's the smartest guy ever or completely full of it but its a fascinating story stock right now.
Does anyone think thie SCTY deal really becomes a big deal on the long side for this co?
Does anyone think thie SCTY deal really becomes a big deal on the long side for this co?
Posted on 7/12/16 at 12:47 pm to dabigfella
quote:
I watched Amazon be shite on for years about lack of earnings and tesla seems to be in the same manner.
It is a little different though. While the Amazon vision/dream plays into the valuation, they have for a long chose to reinvest money instead of taking profits. Besos has always maintained that growth companies making profits is for chumps. I would think that if desired, Amazon could ballpark Walmart's P/E of 17
On the other hand, Tesla is a valuation completely based off the idea/vision. They aren't making profits because they arne't making real money. Tesla projects 80-90k sales this year and have a market cap of 33.1bil. Compare that to GM which recorded sales in the millions yet only have a market cap of ~40bil.
Posted on 7/12/16 at 12:51 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
At some point companies need to turn a profit.
For Amazon, the question is when they should start recording profit. They are a company whose entire business philosophy is domination of multiple markets and getting hands in all the cookie jars.
The day they consistently record profits is the day their financial flexibility to grow, ability to control their financial position and resist stockholder pressure for more profits is eliminated
An employee I know from a dividend aristocrat list made a comment about how they make questionable decisions to ensure consistent, growing dividend. It is what the stockholders demand yearly from the company
Amazon doesn't want to be in that position until they already have a "monopoly" and don't need to have that flexibility
Posted on 7/12/16 at 12:58 pm to GenesChin
yea but you have to believe in the long run that tesla is not just a car company, this solarcity move is showing they want to really be an energy company more than anything else. You also have to believe that this gigafactory he's building will really lower costs drastically thus improving margins. Im not worried about the financials like others bc our whole market is a charade at this point, TSLA will raise money if they have to and get this model 3 which has ridiculous demand at this point.
Could GM or Ford ever launch a car and presell 400,000 of them? God no. Its just interesting seeing both sides of the argument, but bears arguments about financials aren't a big deal to me because those will come around, the demand is there, the gigafactory is coming, I think TSLA can go much higher. I dont know about the $1T musk mentions bc thats what $6,000/share? lol but I think this model 3 can be a bmw 3 series or camry competitor without a doubt. All dips are being bought on tesla it seems, someone wants it
FWIW the camry sold just over 400k models last year in the US....the model 3 has more ordered thus far
finally musk says hes going to publish his master plan this week sometime, curious what thats gonna do to share price
Could GM or Ford ever launch a car and presell 400,000 of them? God no. Its just interesting seeing both sides of the argument, but bears arguments about financials aren't a big deal to me because those will come around, the demand is there, the gigafactory is coming, I think TSLA can go much higher. I dont know about the $1T musk mentions bc thats what $6,000/share? lol but I think this model 3 can be a bmw 3 series or camry competitor without a doubt. All dips are being bought on tesla it seems, someone wants it
FWIW the camry sold just over 400k models last year in the US....the model 3 has more ordered thus far
finally musk says hes going to publish his master plan this week sometime, curious what thats gonna do to share price
This post was edited on 7/12/16 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 7/12/16 at 2:08 pm to dabigfella
Musk is one of the biggest con artist in the history of con artists. Tesla has yet to make a profit. No profit!!! Yet this SCAM has a market cap equal to almost half of Ford Motor company...Ford sold 6.3 million cars last year, about 200X that of Tesla.
This model 3 will get about 300 miles to the full charge unless you live in a hilly area then not so much. Also, your mileage range decreases if you let the car sit without charging for more than 5 hours. Also the batteries have problems with cold weather
The only thing that keeps the lights on there is the sale of ZEC or zero emission tax credits. Musk is nothing more than a welfare recipient
This model 3 will get about 300 miles to the full charge unless you live in a hilly area then not so much. Also, your mileage range decreases if you let the car sit without charging for more than 5 hours. Also the batteries have problems with cold weather
The only thing that keeps the lights on there is the sale of ZEC or zero emission tax credits. Musk is nothing more than a welfare recipient
This post was edited on 7/12/16 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 7/12/16 at 2:12 pm to dabigfella
quote:
dabigfella
Keep drinking the Kool Aid Musk is making. Musk does not have the infrastructure in place nationally to make the Tesla 3 attractive. He needs dealerships and a large footprint.
Posted on 7/12/16 at 2:51 pm to KiwiHead
when you say to make it attractive what exactly do you mean? Im not really a fan of Tesla at all but the stock fascinates me as nothing can seem to kill it and im starting to feel more and more that this really does have a monster future if they can get this gigafactory up and the model 3 out. The model 3 does have 400k+ reservations this is well known, what would make tesla more attractive? It seems to have a brand people love much like apple at this point.
Im curious where apple stood financially a decade ago before the iphone took off
Im curious where apple stood financially a decade ago before the iphone took off
Posted on 7/12/16 at 3:01 pm to dabigfella
Tesla keeps losing one executive after another. Which is a clear sign that something is wrong within the company. They can keep trying to spin all this negativity, but I think the house of cards is fixing to fall down. I've looked at taking a short position, but no matter what, people keep buying into the hype.
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