re: Elon Musk Says Tesla Will Be $1 Trillion Dollars Soon

quote:

---

Keep drinking the Kool Aid Musk is making. Musk does not have the infrastructure in place nationally to make the Tesla 3 attractive. He needs dealerships and a large footprint.

---

I'm not Tesla lover but this is at least closer to a real argument than your "profit" talk

quote:

---

Tesla keeps losing one executive after another. Which is a clear sign that something is wrong within the company.

---

This is silly reasoning. Losing executives is not necessarily a bad thing.

Losing the executives you wanted to keep is a bad thing. You need to know someone at Tesla to get an understanding on this.

quote:

---

This is silly reasoning.

---

I would say silly reasoning would be having 2-3 executives resign. But 5 this year alone.. Something is going on.

Can you elaborate more? Again I admit I dont know much but when you take an internal combustion engine vehicle with a gazillion moving parts and then a tesla with many fewer moving parts and then combine the scale this gigafactory is going to give tesla in terms of lowering costs, I dont see how gross margins dont improve drastically.

All Im saying is, Tesla got crushed on the solar city deal a few weeks ago and its right back, someone keeps buying this thing, the gigafactory opens in 2-3 weeks, albeit not 100% done, but it will be operational.

Today I saw a report of 18M cars I think will be sold in the US in 2020, Tesla says it will attempt to sell 1M of those, lets say they bomb and do 500,000. How much revenue is that? Pretty close to todays market cap of 28B. I dont know what comes of tesla, I hope electric cars are way off as Im in the gas business, but these things seem to be ramping up and the gigafactory opening this month could be the foot on the pedal. I dont know man what other car company can sell 400,000 cars pre launch? Toyota,Mercedes,BMW,etc could never. I mean of course rolls royce or ferrari could if they launched a 35k car but still its an amazing feat that speaks alot about teslas brand

Like I said Musk has said he's revealing his master plan part 2 this week, his original master plan 10 years ago was this

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Don't tell anyone.

He seems to have nailed that in a decade, and now hes saying Tesla is going to be a $1 trillion dollar company and thats 30x from here so im listening bc he sounded nuts in 2006 and now he came through

quote:

---

lynx I know you follow tesla more than me, but at what point will this gigafactory be fully operational and whats your take on the realities of these 400k+ model 3 preorders. Do you think this thing starts getting delivered next year and they can fulfill orders?

---

If their track record is any indication, then Tesla will run into production problems and the release with be delayed. Given that the interest in the Model 3 is much larger than expected, I think delays are almost a certainty. However, I do not think delays are going to cause too much trouble for the company. If people are already willing to wait +1 year for a car then they are likely ok with waiting a little longer. If some cycle out, then other buyers will cycle in as new buyers to the category.

The key is for Tesla to start shipping cars with ~6 months of the planned date. Do they need to be able to ship at 400k at the launch? No. I expect that people will be prioritized and the list may take a year to get through. The bigger focus needs to be on quality...the last thing that can happen is the first 50k vehicles ship and then everyone finds out the brakes don't work or the battery only lasts 125 miles. That type of issues could damage Tesla forever and you could see thousands of people withdraw their deposits for the Model 3.

My $0.02.

I'm on the record, Tesla will NOT be worth $1T soon. Not in market cap, not in any measure.

I guess I'd like someone to define soon, but I'm comfortable with this prediction, and if I'm wrong, it only costs me opportunity.

I'm willing to bet $1, the time frame for soon being 2 years. But Musk said 10 years, and we could have a technological breakthrough in the next decade I guess. It's a buck, what the hell, I'll go 10 years.

You could be right. Having said this, are you taking my bet, or not?

I don't have a bear case, other than $1T is a lot of money, and oil will be economically viable for a long, long time.

What I want to do is make some $1 bets that Dandy Diamond Elon Musk Man is wrong. I don't really want to wait a decade to collect, but I'm betting he is wrong, as he has been before.

I'm not a bull. I'm not a bear. I'm like the Sicilian in Catch 22, I'm whatever I need to be at a certain time. I create nothing when I invest. I'm not one of the economists on the PT that thinks I'm adding liquidity and capital financing. I'm buying or selling something with one goal. Paper, silver, houses, condos. Whatever, so long as I kind of understand it, and I can sell it for more than I bought it for, or the inverse. I don't believe in Warren Buffett. I don't believe in Elon Musk. I don't believe in electric cars.

Tesla is clearly not building a $5b gigafactory to be the biggest building on earth with the intention of burning cash. The deal with solar city makes them a one stop shop to get your electric car,solar panels and power wall to store your energy at home. You could walk into a tesla store and leave being completely off the grid. I don't care much about financials today as all growth companies burn money. Apple,Amazon,etc were all on the cusp of bankruptcy early on. The electric car is here to stay and in its early days. I won't judge tesla in any way until another 5 years pass. Musk has been late delivering on promises but he usually ends up delivering. Tesla sold 1500 cars in 2010 today it's gonna be more like 60-70k or more that is remarkable growth. It's not as simple as others think that they can compete with tesla. I used to think that but look at the infrastructure tesla has. Ford doesn't have a gigafactory,they don't have charging stations,they don't sell solar panels. Tesla is years ahead of competition at this point and it scares people bc a lot of jobs are at stake if tesla succeeds. I finally went long recently, I figure what the hell its a hedge against my gas stations at this point

that too sounds cool, but overall the concept of 1 company selling you not only a car but solar panels + a power wall to store that solar power is very cool to me. It would like your energy company today powering your house and installing a gas pump at your house along with selling you a car.....thats not feasible, but what Tesla + solar city is doing is feasible, and might just be the future.

I dont hate, I just watch in fascination. Im 35, I remember my first cell phone and never would I have believed Id have this super phone in my pocket today thats a high powered computer that runs my life. Technology evolves, and it evolves fast.

I know lots of people dislike Tesla, my question is then, is there anyone out there with a better plan for electric cars? Really, If you hate Teslas plan so much, show me the automaker with a better path to mass EV production. Tesla is making mistakes but they're basically a startup making errors and delays but they are executing. Everyone else is laughing at them and saying their plan wont work, ok well then whose plan is going to work? Is it gonna be gasoline powered cars forever? What is the answer to what on earth tesla is doing so wrong at this point in the game.