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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:31 pm to
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37695 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:31 pm to
In a free fall. I'm about to jump back in. I'd like to hear from the pros though.
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2384 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:48 pm to
I hear ya. I'm basically just taking their advice as well.

I would like to know their opinions on what they think will happen tomorrow as well. I could sell now for triple what I paid earlier, but I'm thinking hold and see what happens tomorrow.
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 1:51 pm
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37695 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

I could sell now for triple what I paid earlier,


Take the profits man. Always more opportunities.

ETA: I mean triple! What more can you ask for.
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 1:56 pm
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

I bought some 10/3 21.5 puts earlier today for .07....liking what I see so far.



I bought some at .12, but after going down to .07, I lost my nerve and set a sell at .15 hoping to just get our alive if it ever got above water again...bad idea obviously

I don't the stomach for trading I think...
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

So we are expecting a pull back on natural gas?



the play is hoping the injection released this week will be above projections...I had puts, but chickened out and sold...still long for the winter though
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

Take the profits man. Always more opportunities.



I'd at least sell enough to get your original 'bet' back and let the rest ride waiting on the injection numbers
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2384 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 2:00 pm to
I know what you mean. I just thought Thursday was the day things dropped like a rock. I was going to see what happens tomorrow. thats what I've gathered as I've been following this thread. Am I correct on this?
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37695 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

Am I correct on this?


Take everything I'm saying with a grain of salt but a few of the guys think that information leaks early. So this could be the only drop...
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2384 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 3:07 pm to
You convinced me. I sold the puts for .21. Can't really complain about that profit margin. Time to move on to the next deal.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 5:46 pm to
ICE natty gas swaps are 106x107.

Biggest factor is I'm not short for tomorrow, so you guys will make a ton without me.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/1/14 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

Biggest factor is I'm not short for tomorrow, so you guys will make a ton without me.



I think everyone is out, we can't all be wrong

nope, the number will be low and UNG will skyrocket

ETA: also, I got killed on about everything else today, so I'm due for something to go right
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 5:51 pm
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37695 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 8:33 am to
About to jump in UGAZ for the long play. Any thoughts?

Down to $14.50
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 8:41 am to
don't ask me, I sold my puts for .15 and they're at .30 today

but just for grins, my speculation is the price has fallen on inside info on a big injection number and will increase by this afternoon, so yes, I'd buy.

but as you know, I'm a rookie like you in this trade

we need to hear form the GasGurus....

ETA: Their target seems to have been below 14 for the buy, which has worked over the last month or so

ETA: OOOPS
This post was edited on 10/2/14 at 9:31 am
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16160 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 8:55 am to
Anybody setting some buy points? I just set a buy at 14 for the report, but I'd surely like to hear from some others.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:30 am to
wow..big drop on the report
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16160 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:30 am to
Welp, those got filled
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37695 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:39 am to
715 shares at 13.95 executed
Posted by b-rab2
N. Louisiana
Member since Dec 2005
12575 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:47 am to
Anyone going long on ugaz after the report? Calls or actual stock?
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16160 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:51 am to
Most everyone here is long natty gas through winter. I, and some others, just play these weekly fluctuations, but always hold that core long position.

I'm long Ugaz, which is an etn. Some others are playing options. I'm not smart enough for that
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37695 posts
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:51 am to
All of the oil guys are long in this etf. Hopefully the weather will turn cold soon and this thing will jump.

If we see a warm month leading into November this could drop much further though.

Disclaimer: I'm new at this and just reading different articles. I don't personally know anything.
This post was edited on 10/2/14 at 9:52 am
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