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Started By
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Forecast when the Fed Reserve will increase interest rates again & how often?
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:48 pm
My guess is we won't see the Fed raise rates again before June and that will be the only rate increase this year until after the November election. Then one more increase before the end of 2016.
Both times the increase will be by +.25%.
Anybody else want to guess?
Both times the increase will be by +.25%.
Anybody else want to guess?
Posted on 1/29/16 at 2:05 pm to LSURussian
You are much more informed about monetary policy than I am, but I'm going to go with they won't raise the rates.
Too much global turmoil and the national economic forecast ain't grand.
Too much global turmoil and the national economic forecast ain't grand.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 2:09 pm to CherryGarciaMan
quote:That's definitely a possibility.
but I'm going to go with they won't raise the rates.
Most of the "experts" on CNBC are going the other way and saying the Fed will raise rates 4 times this year starting in March.
They say the Fed's credibility is on the line after saying for almost two years it was going to institute the tightening process.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 2:23 pm to LSURussian
quote:
They say the Fed's credibility is on the line after saying for almost two years it was going to institute the tightening process.
Agreed but I don't think we will see more than one more increase this year if anything. With China and the O&G crap going on, I don't think they want to do anything that will make the market anymore volatile than it already is. Everyone said the market was already priced for the last increase but I don't see it that way.
I am not expert in this at all. Just my thoughts.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 3:00 pm to LSURussian
Futures are pointing to no rate increases this year but I'm also gonna go with your same prediction of 2 rate hikes in 2016.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 3:23 pm to LSURussian
Question is who yields more influence - Party in power not wanting to see any increases, or the FED know it needs to be done.
Even with the O&G plunge and Asia market volatility, FED needs to raise the rates. Otherwise they will have zero mechanism to adjust rates to spur activity in the next big downturn
Even with the O&G plunge and Asia market volatility, FED needs to raise the rates. Otherwise they will have zero mechanism to adjust rates to spur activity in the next big downturn
Posted on 1/29/16 at 4:02 pm to LSURussian
I'll go with 0. I think Feb to March are going to be pretty ugly in the equity market. A few months for a dead cat bounce and then ugly into 2017.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 4:03 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
Even with the O&G plunge and Asia market volatility, FED needs to raise the rates. Otherwise they will have zero mechanism to adjust rates to spur activity in the next big downturn
What if the next big downturn has already started?
Posted on 1/29/16 at 4:27 pm to LSURussian
Zero. The dollar is already too strong.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 4:35 pm to LSURussian
I'll go with raise in June, hopefully oil has a little bit a of (sustained) rebound into summer.
Then cut back again in November. It's about time for a total collapse/reset. New president and all.
We'll see, I really have no idea.
Then cut back again in November. It's about time for a total collapse/reset. New president and all.
We'll see, I really have no idea.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 4:46 pm to LSURussian
The Fed has painted themselves into a corner. Traditionally raising rates is a tool to fight inflation.
I believe there is an internal interest rate for a normal functioning economy. When it gets too hot, raise rates, when it gets too cool, lower them.
But because the Fed left the rates low for so long, I think it has effectively changed that internal rate. The whole mother's milk thing.
Interest rates were left so low for essentially 7 years. That's basically about the time of a typical economic cycle.
Our economy is by no means booming. Thus, raising rates will choke down growth. We don't really have any room to lower them, either.
I can't predict what the fed will do with any accuracy, because of the corner they are in. If I have to guess, I'll say no raises until after the fall elections.
As to the question of influence, I think if there was no politicial influence, rates would have gone up long before now.
I believe there is an internal interest rate for a normal functioning economy. When it gets too hot, raise rates, when it gets too cool, lower them.
But because the Fed left the rates low for so long, I think it has effectively changed that internal rate. The whole mother's milk thing.
Interest rates were left so low for essentially 7 years. That's basically about the time of a typical economic cycle.
Our economy is by no means booming. Thus, raising rates will choke down growth. We don't really have any room to lower them, either.
I can't predict what the fed will do with any accuracy, because of the corner they are in. If I have to guess, I'll say no raises until after the fall elections.
As to the question of influence, I think if there was no politicial influence, rates would have gone up long before now.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 7:07 pm to LSUFanHouston
China recession.
Russia recession.
OPEC recession.
Emerging markets recession.
EU QE.
Japan just announced negative interest rates.
And USA raises rates???
Russia recession.
OPEC recession.
Emerging markets recession.
EU QE.
Japan just announced negative interest rates.
And USA raises rates???
Posted on 1/29/16 at 8:58 pm to Stingray
Rates were back under 4%today on 30 year and right at 3% on 15.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 12:21 pm to LSURussian
we raise while everyone else is going negative rates
Posted on 2/11/16 at 7:52 am to LSURussian
Does anyone want to change his prediction?
I do.
No rate increases this year.
I do.
No rate increases this year.
Posted on 2/11/16 at 8:03 am to Janky
Yellen is Keynesian and dovish. She will resist increasing interest rates. She (they) might have to raise rates to save face. I'm in the minority, but she is the wrong person for the job, and the Fed has made numerous blunders in recent years. Her best work in my opinion was during her fairly short gig at CBO.
Posted on 2/11/16 at 8:10 am to LSU1NSEC
quote:That was my original prediction in the first post in the thread. A lot has happened since then.....
2 times max for '16
Posted on 2/11/16 at 8:15 am to LSURussian
Sweden just went negative on their rates. How the hell does that work?
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