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Started By
Message
re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:11 am to Duke
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:11 am to Duke
quote:Local news had a storm threat for Thursday PM this morning in Alexandria. My weather apps on my phone have zero mention. Is it common for the apps to lag so far behind?
Ensembles are all hitting on the same idea, but some spread in how the operational models are evolving things.
I want to get a little closer before really diving into details but I agree with Nick, this is the first system this spring with some outbreak potential.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:13 am to Manlaw35
quote:quote:
Just what exactly is a tornado plan....wake up and run???
Get in the bathroom and pray to God it's not a high-end F3 and above. Also pray that the pine trees in my yard will not fall through my house. That's my basic tornado plan every year.
well... for people who live in mobile homes to know where they should go to ride out the tornado threat
or just know exactly what room you're going to go to in case of a tornado warning
and have a helmet handy to protect your head should you need
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:14 am to DomincDecoco
quote:
Just what exactly is a tornado plan....wake up and run???
Make sure my weather radio as new batteries, make sure the reinforced closet is cleaned out and has spare pillows and thick blankets along with bicycle helmets for the kids. And a rosary
This post was edited on 3/16/22 at 9:15 am
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:16 am to tigerfoot
quote:
Local news had a storm threat for Thursday PM this morning in Alexandria. My weather apps on my phone have zero mention. Is it common for the apps to lag so far behind?
I use WeatherBug on my phone... and on looking at the 10 day forecast it has nothing but sunshine on Thursday and Friday
but you open Thursday and that's where you find an 80% chance of rain with thunderstorms after midnight
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:17 am to tigerfoot
Apps are going to be using model output vs having a person make a forecast. Since the models arent showing widespread storms up your way, the apps arent going to show much.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:22 am to rt3
quote:
I use WeatherBug on my phone... and on looking at the 10 day forecast it has nothing but sunshine on Thursday and Friday
but you open Thursday and that's where you find an 80% chance of rain with thunderstorms after midnight
I use WeatherBug for short term info bc I like their hourly forecast. It’s much more accurate than the more generic Weather Channel app hourly updates. I use the Weather Channel for forecasts 1-2 days out and primarily for the radar.
Both lag behind real time info you will get from meteorologists who analyze conditions and “look ahead” to how those conditions will impact weather. I can’t tell you how many times both apps and radars have shown no rain while it was pouring at my house.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 9:25 am to Duke
Us Cenla folks just tune in to Nicks facebook and we get the best info, our local KALB weather is also really really good for our market size.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 10:29 am to Duke
NAM getting spicy on the southshore early Friday morning. Should hopefully be in a linear mode by then.
You've got enough moisture to goose the mean layer CAPE into the 1500 range and its a "fat" CAPE in the hail growth region (hail potential). Dry air aloft brings the threat of strong winds and abundant low level shear suggest spin ups within the line too.
One model of course but that certainly got my attention.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 12:05 pm to tiger91
quote:
My husband is a rice farme
Errr....Severe Thread BINGO?
Posted on 3/16/22 at 12:07 pm to Duke
quote:
You've got enough moisture to goose the mean layer CAPE into the 1500 range and its a "fat" CAPE in the hail growth region (hail potential). Dry air aloft brings the threat of strong winds and abundant low level shear suggest spin ups within the line too.
That's a recipe for the type hail that can surprise some folks who aren't used to seeing big hail.
Go ahead and clean those garages out, put the wife's Honda on the street, or at least put your truck nut covers on.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 12:09 pm to Duke
Every time you post a Tropical Tidbits sounding it throws me for a loop.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 12:19 pm to Duke
I've been in severe weather and hurricane threads for a while now and I still have no idea what I'm looking at with these hodographs
Posted on 3/16/22 at 12:19 pm to LegendInMyMind
Yeah, I like pivotal more but I usually end up with tidbits on my phone for some reason.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 12:35 pm to Duke
For most of them I use CoD. For some reason, though, it doesn't pull soundings in the HRRR. It kind of annoys me. I like the interface of CoD better than Pivotal.
This post was edited on 3/16/22 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 3/16/22 at 1:11 pm to rt3
quote:
I've been in severe weather and hurricane threads for a while now and I still have no idea what I'm looking at with these hodographs
A while ago I would have referred you to the Chaser Chat podcast with Jeff Frame going into detail about hodographs. For whatever reason, Gabe quit doing the podcast and Jeff Frame asked him to pull the episodes he was on. It is a shame, because Jeff is a teacher by profession, but also a damn good field meteorologist.
The episode with Cameron Nixon is still available, and if you want to learn hodographs from one of the best studying them today, look up his stuff on YouTube/Twitter/etc.
This post was edited on 3/16/22 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 3/16/22 at 1:40 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
We have two potential severe events on the way, with one possibly bringing significant severe weather, so let’s get right to it.
7:00 PM Thursday until 4:00 AM Friday…
SPC has us in a slight, level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather Thursday evening into early Friday morning. We will have something known as elevated instability with this round of storms. I’m going to try and simplify elevated instability now. Pray for me. This means that a parcel of air lifted from the surface would not be unstable. Surface based instability is needed for the development of tornadoes, and in most cases, severe wind gusts. Severe wind gusts are still possible with “elevated storms”, but it’s not as likely. A cool layer of air near the surface will keep that air stable Thursday evening and night. Air parcels lifted from about 6000-7000 feet up, will be unstable. What this means for us, is that there is a threat for hail, and that’s about it, since the cloud base will be elevated by several thousand feet. There’s your brief, and still somewhat complex explanation. Meteorology really is a fascinating thing when you dig in. It’s also cool just to look at the sky, so there’s something for everyone! Along with these potential hail producers, we will see a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain. This doesn’t jump out as a system that will produce widespread, or massive hail, but some scattered pea to quarter sized hail is possible.
Late Monday into Tuesday, March 21-22…
Models are a bit faster on this system, but still look very impressive. It’s possible we see storms as soon as Monday night, but at this point, I think Tuesday is the main event in our area. SPC currently has a 15% risk for severe weather in our area, but I expect that to increase in the next few days as model agreement on the strength of this system has been very good. This would be an all modes of severe weather event, with the potential for 2-4 inches of rain, and isolated higher totals. Timing, and any Monday night storms could change the atmosphere, so it’s impossible to get detailed yet. It does look like this will easily be our most significant severe weather threat so far this year. It’s never time to panic, but it’s time to kind of figure out what you’ll do should you find yourself in a tornado warning. Where is the interior room in your house that puts as many walls between you and the outside? If you live in a camper or mobile home, where will you evacuate? How will you make sure you have an up to the minute source for warnings? Remember, being informed is the best defense against these threats, and while I’ll be pumping out too much information, it’s really hard to hit every warning as it happens. I’ll be posting every day until the threat is clear.
This post was edited on 3/16/22 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 3/16/22 at 1:47 pm to rt3
What is getting confusing is the Thursday threat, then the Monday through Tuesday or Wednesday. Is THIS THURSDAY, March 17 gonna be a bitch with the weather? Next Thursday? Both? I only saw Monday and Tuesday’s dates.
Posted on 3/16/22 at 1:53 pm to CCT
quote:
What is getting confusing is the Thursday threat, then the Monday through Tuesday or Wednesday. Is THIS THURSDAY, March 17 gonna be a bitch with the weather? Next Thursday? Both? I only saw Monday and Tuesday’s dates.
2 threats
1st is this Thursday night into Friday (seems to be more a hail possibility than tornado threat)
2nd is Monday into Tuesday (for Louisiana)... which is the big 1 where all forms of severe weather are possible
This post was edited on 3/16/22 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 3/16/22 at 2:09 pm to rt3
Thank you! That’s very clear for me now. Y’all baws stay safe!
Posted on 3/16/22 at 5:12 pm to rt3
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