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Cold weather stories - whatcha got OTL?
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 1/25/26 at 10:33 am
Alright OT denizens, let's hear your tales of harrowing survival, near misses, that time you nearly froze your nuts off when you got caught unprepared, 5 days without power, etc. Here's one of mine:
Early 1980's, may have been Christmas break of 1982 or '83, two of my NW Alabama HS buddies decide that it is imperative that we go see our other HS buddy who is in the military down in S. Florida. I believe he was at MacDill in St Petersburg. Today, that is a 10 hour drive. On the roads of 1983, it was more like 14-15 hours, and no Buc-ee's either. So three of us pile into Pat's 1980 Dodge Colt. Tiny little 2100 lb tin box, but great MPG and enough room for three of us crammed in with minimal gear.
Two things to keep in mind - 1. Back then, weather forecasts were vastly more unreliable than today, and 2. There were very, very few FWD cars on the road with their superior bad weather traction, and there were still a lot of cars and trucks running bias ply tires.
We set out with the goal doing the whole thing in about 3 days, with no stops and less than one day hanging out with our buddy. We were young, stupid and bored. Everything was fine going there, and then most of the way back. We were tired, the car was dirty, but otherwise having a good time.
We had no clue we were headed into bad weather until we picked up some radio reports coming back into S Alabama. At that point, we elected to stick to the interstate and dogleg through Montgomery up through Birmingham. Sounded good on paper.
We get just clear of Montgomery, and the interstate is nothing but sheet ice. An 18 wheeler has jackknifed and brought traffic to a stop on one of the very long raised portions of I-65 N of town. One lane starts to move, but we are stuck behind a hearse. On nearly level concrete, the ice is so slick that he can't move. He had slid slightly onto the paved shoulder as he came to a stop, would have had a bit of traction if he had been in the grooves on the road.
The driver gets out, and asks us for help, noting that he is "carrying a load". I'm looking at this likely 6k lb loaded full-size 1970's Caddy hearse and thinking NFW can we move that thing.
I get there first, and think well, what the heck, so I brace one foot on the concrete median divider and lean on the hearse getting ready to push with all my teen might. I had no more than put about a quarter of my 150 lb weight on that Caddy's fender when it just went skittering across the ice from that nudge. I moved it about 2-3 feet, and the driver wasn't even on the throttle yet. My buddies are looking at me slack-jawed, wondering why I had never revealed my super powers to them, but that's just how slick it was. Mick, that friend we've all had who took everything as a personal challenge for him to best, screws up his best "Well that ain't nuthin'" face and goes full retard into a hard push on the other fender, this time nearly straight ahead, and nearly faceplants when the Caddy slides away like a hockey puck. Another nudge from me and the hearse is back in the grooves on the freeway and has some traction, driver takes off with a wave.
To this day, after living in Michigan and extensive winter travel to Michigan, Chicago, and the upper reaches of Minnesota, I have never seen pavement that slick. It was even slicker than the "artificial ice" low mu surfaces that the automakers test on.
Everyone is really struggling for any traction though still, in mostly RWD malaise era cars with crap tires (still a lot of bias ply tires around then), but with FWD and narrow Michelin radial tires, the little Colt does pretty well. It does even better when I have the sudden stroke of genius to drive with one wheel in the grass on the side of the road, which, though iced over like the road, still offers a bit better coefficient of friction just from being lumpy. In some places, this was gravel, which worked even better. We were making a steady 35 MPH toward Birmingham.
All was peachy until we get to this overpass in a rural area that was also a banked curve. Stranded midway across, because he wasn't going fast enough to stay on the banking, was a Fiat X1/9 and its driver. By then, I was driving, and I already had enough competition experience to understand critical speed on a banked turn became REALLY CRITICAL when the coefficient of friction was near 0, so I carried enough velocity onto the overpass to carry us to the other side dead center of the freeway, where we pulled off to the side to go help the hapless X1/9 pilot.
We get back to him, pulling ourselves along the slick road surface with our hands on the concrete bridge guardrail, and quickly show him that he can easily push his car away from the concrete rail (he had stopped as soon as he contacted it) while we pushed the car to the other side. We're almost there, me at the side of the car pushing on the windshield and steering wheel, Pat behind me pushing on the roof, and Fiat driver between the car and the concrete guardrail keeping from getting torn up by the concrete when I hear the distinct sound of mudders, and they're slowing down.
Some helpful guys in a Jeep are crossing the bridge and slowing down leaning out the window to ask if we need help. I frantically try to wave them off even as they start sliding down the banked curve toward us, and Jeep driver makes things worse by braking. He made the fatal mistake of slowing below the banking critical speed.
When it became clear they were going to hit, Pat and I jumped on the hood and rear deck of the Fiat and narrowly escaped being crushed as the Jeep slid right into the Fiat side to side. Fiat driver did not react fast enough though and was hurt badly, probably a broken pelvis, pinned between the Fiat and the concrete barrier.
The five of us, both Jeep occupants and the three of us, were able to get the two cars off him quickly enough. We managed to flag down a 4x4 going through the rural underpass that just happened to be a guy taking his RN wife to work at the local hospital, and he in turn was able to raise a trooper on his CB. Fiat guy was in a lot of pain, but did not appear to have fatal injuries, and there was nothing else we could do so we set out for Birmingham again.
In all, it took us 6 hours to make that normally 1 hour and 20 minute drive from Montgomery to Birmingham. Conditions improved N of Birmingham and we were able to make a little better speed from there. I hate to think how many times we came close to dying in that one trip.
Early 1980's, may have been Christmas break of 1982 or '83, two of my NW Alabama HS buddies decide that it is imperative that we go see our other HS buddy who is in the military down in S. Florida. I believe he was at MacDill in St Petersburg. Today, that is a 10 hour drive. On the roads of 1983, it was more like 14-15 hours, and no Buc-ee's either. So three of us pile into Pat's 1980 Dodge Colt. Tiny little 2100 lb tin box, but great MPG and enough room for three of us crammed in with minimal gear.
Two things to keep in mind - 1. Back then, weather forecasts were vastly more unreliable than today, and 2. There were very, very few FWD cars on the road with their superior bad weather traction, and there were still a lot of cars and trucks running bias ply tires.
We set out with the goal doing the whole thing in about 3 days, with no stops and less than one day hanging out with our buddy. We were young, stupid and bored. Everything was fine going there, and then most of the way back. We were tired, the car was dirty, but otherwise having a good time.
We had no clue we were headed into bad weather until we picked up some radio reports coming back into S Alabama. At that point, we elected to stick to the interstate and dogleg through Montgomery up through Birmingham. Sounded good on paper.
We get just clear of Montgomery, and the interstate is nothing but sheet ice. An 18 wheeler has jackknifed and brought traffic to a stop on one of the very long raised portions of I-65 N of town. One lane starts to move, but we are stuck behind a hearse. On nearly level concrete, the ice is so slick that he can't move. He had slid slightly onto the paved shoulder as he came to a stop, would have had a bit of traction if he had been in the grooves on the road.
The driver gets out, and asks us for help, noting that he is "carrying a load". I'm looking at this likely 6k lb loaded full-size 1970's Caddy hearse and thinking NFW can we move that thing.
I get there first, and think well, what the heck, so I brace one foot on the concrete median divider and lean on the hearse getting ready to push with all my teen might. I had no more than put about a quarter of my 150 lb weight on that Caddy's fender when it just went skittering across the ice from that nudge. I moved it about 2-3 feet, and the driver wasn't even on the throttle yet. My buddies are looking at me slack-jawed, wondering why I had never revealed my super powers to them, but that's just how slick it was. Mick, that friend we've all had who took everything as a personal challenge for him to best, screws up his best "Well that ain't nuthin'" face and goes full retard into a hard push on the other fender, this time nearly straight ahead, and nearly faceplants when the Caddy slides away like a hockey puck. Another nudge from me and the hearse is back in the grooves on the freeway and has some traction, driver takes off with a wave.
To this day, after living in Michigan and extensive winter travel to Michigan, Chicago, and the upper reaches of Minnesota, I have never seen pavement that slick. It was even slicker than the "artificial ice" low mu surfaces that the automakers test on.
Everyone is really struggling for any traction though still, in mostly RWD malaise era cars with crap tires (still a lot of bias ply tires around then), but with FWD and narrow Michelin radial tires, the little Colt does pretty well. It does even better when I have the sudden stroke of genius to drive with one wheel in the grass on the side of the road, which, though iced over like the road, still offers a bit better coefficient of friction just from being lumpy. In some places, this was gravel, which worked even better. We were making a steady 35 MPH toward Birmingham.
All was peachy until we get to this overpass in a rural area that was also a banked curve. Stranded midway across, because he wasn't going fast enough to stay on the banking, was a Fiat X1/9 and its driver. By then, I was driving, and I already had enough competition experience to understand critical speed on a banked turn became REALLY CRITICAL when the coefficient of friction was near 0, so I carried enough velocity onto the overpass to carry us to the other side dead center of the freeway, where we pulled off to the side to go help the hapless X1/9 pilot.
We get back to him, pulling ourselves along the slick road surface with our hands on the concrete bridge guardrail, and quickly show him that he can easily push his car away from the concrete rail (he had stopped as soon as he contacted it) while we pushed the car to the other side. We're almost there, me at the side of the car pushing on the windshield and steering wheel, Pat behind me pushing on the roof, and Fiat driver between the car and the concrete guardrail keeping from getting torn up by the concrete when I hear the distinct sound of mudders, and they're slowing down.
Some helpful guys in a Jeep are crossing the bridge and slowing down leaning out the window to ask if we need help. I frantically try to wave them off even as they start sliding down the banked curve toward us, and Jeep driver makes things worse by braking. He made the fatal mistake of slowing below the banking critical speed.
When it became clear they were going to hit, Pat and I jumped on the hood and rear deck of the Fiat and narrowly escaped being crushed as the Jeep slid right into the Fiat side to side. Fiat driver did not react fast enough though and was hurt badly, probably a broken pelvis, pinned between the Fiat and the concrete barrier.
The five of us, both Jeep occupants and the three of us, were able to get the two cars off him quickly enough. We managed to flag down a 4x4 going through the rural underpass that just happened to be a guy taking his RN wife to work at the local hospital, and he in turn was able to raise a trooper on his CB. Fiat guy was in a lot of pain, but did not appear to have fatal injuries, and there was nothing else we could do so we set out for Birmingham again.
In all, it took us 6 hours to make that normally 1 hour and 20 minute drive from Montgomery to Birmingham. Conditions improved N of Birmingham and we were able to make a little better speed from there. I hate to think how many times we came close to dying in that one trip.
Vandy-Texas observations and what AU needs to pay attention to
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 10/27/24 at 9:05 am
Some thoughts relevant to AU from 1st half of Texas-Vandy:
1. Both Texas QB's have NIL deals >$1M.....and a company car. An Aston Martin. Remember the good 'ol days when all we had to match was a Charger with rimz?
2. Speaking of QBs, Pavia went down with a knee injury, came back a series later with a knee brace. Does not look as fast. Texas is hitting him a lot. He will be beat up when they play us.
3. So far, Texas is taking care of business after getting a tipped pass TO (sound familiar?) on the first drive that set Vandy up for a quick TD. Since then, Pavia has thrown for 55 yds coming up on HT.
4. I didn't realize that the UNM OC went to Vandy along with Kill and Pavia.
5. Vandy ran that play again where they fake communications issues with the sideline and quick snap it to someone besides Pavia while he's waving his arms at the sideline. It worked again, but was called back on a penalty. I hope we are ready for that crap play. That is at least the 2nd time they ran that this year.
6. People used to criticize AU on prior boards for our WRs having to learn how to block. Sark told the announcer crew that "To play in this system (Texas') a WR had better be able to block!"
7. Vandy has gotten some pressure on assignment busts along the Texas OL, including a couple of big sacks. I hope our OL is ready.
8. Despite all of that, Texas QB Ewers completed 17 straight passes after the 1st drive tipped INT, and would have hit 18 had PI been called as it probably should have been.
9. Vandy's backup QB, a former 4* recruit xfer from Utah, is a big step down. So much for recruiting rankings. Somewhat like Cam Newton, Pavia was discovered playing juco by accident - UNM coaches were watching the juco game at a Hooters to see another guy they were recruiting. IIRC, we went to Blinn to look at someone else, maybe a RB?
10. Bubble/Tunnel screens and outlet passes to the RBs are killing Vandy. If we throw to him, Cowboy finna eat.
11. Vandy is almost automatic for 3rd and 6 or less, but is abysmal for anything longer.
2nd half:
1. Another tipped pass INT that set Vandy up with a short field. This will be a problem for us, I'm afraid.
2. Pavia has definitely lost a step with the injury, but he's not limping.
3. Texas is head hunting on slant routes, has prevented a couple of completions by doing so.
Here's the thing, without two tipped pass TO's, this is a pedestrian 24-3 or 31-3 Texas win. Shows you that even uber-talented teams have trouble overcoming TOs. If AU holds onto the ball, and has the same gameplan as KY with the passes to our RBs out of the backfield, we win. Try to go deep down the field too much on Vandy, and we lose amid a flurry of sacks and INTs.
1. Both Texas QB's have NIL deals >$1M.....and a company car. An Aston Martin. Remember the good 'ol days when all we had to match was a Charger with rimz?
2. Speaking of QBs, Pavia went down with a knee injury, came back a series later with a knee brace. Does not look as fast. Texas is hitting him a lot. He will be beat up when they play us.
3. So far, Texas is taking care of business after getting a tipped pass TO (sound familiar?) on the first drive that set Vandy up for a quick TD. Since then, Pavia has thrown for 55 yds coming up on HT.
4. I didn't realize that the UNM OC went to Vandy along with Kill and Pavia.
5. Vandy ran that play again where they fake communications issues with the sideline and quick snap it to someone besides Pavia while he's waving his arms at the sideline. It worked again, but was called back on a penalty. I hope we are ready for that crap play. That is at least the 2nd time they ran that this year.
6. People used to criticize AU on prior boards for our WRs having to learn how to block. Sark told the announcer crew that "To play in this system (Texas') a WR had better be able to block!"
7. Vandy has gotten some pressure on assignment busts along the Texas OL, including a couple of big sacks. I hope our OL is ready.
8. Despite all of that, Texas QB Ewers completed 17 straight passes after the 1st drive tipped INT, and would have hit 18 had PI been called as it probably should have been.
9. Vandy's backup QB, a former 4* recruit xfer from Utah, is a big step down. So much for recruiting rankings. Somewhat like Cam Newton, Pavia was discovered playing juco by accident - UNM coaches were watching the juco game at a Hooters to see another guy they were recruiting. IIRC, we went to Blinn to look at someone else, maybe a RB?
10. Bubble/Tunnel screens and outlet passes to the RBs are killing Vandy. If we throw to him, Cowboy finna eat.
11. Vandy is almost automatic for 3rd and 6 or less, but is abysmal for anything longer.
2nd half:
1. Another tipped pass INT that set Vandy up with a short field. This will be a problem for us, I'm afraid.
2. Pavia has definitely lost a step with the injury, but he's not limping.
3. Texas is head hunting on slant routes, has prevented a couple of completions by doing so.
Here's the thing, without two tipped pass TO's, this is a pedestrian 24-3 or 31-3 Texas win. Shows you that even uber-talented teams have trouble overcoming TOs. If AU holds onto the ball, and has the same gameplan as KY with the passes to our RBs out of the backfield, we win. Try to go deep down the field too much on Vandy, and we lose amid a flurry of sacks and INTs.
SEC Rosters and building for the future - some hope for AU
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 10/21/24 at 9:16 pm
I posted this back on 9/22 on another forum that I'm on. Thought I'd pass it on for those who like data. There is hope......
Not for this season though, we’re going to suck this year, so suck it up, Buttercup. Here’s why we will suck this year, and also why the hope is greater for the future than perhaps any time since the first year Gus took the reigns:
Those of you old enough to have watched the CPD years will be familiar with this old bit of Southern Coaching Wisdom – “Every freshman you start will cost you a game”. Well kids play earlier today than ever, and the superstars in the making – Cam Coleman anyone? – can win you a game too, but there is much truth in it.
Furthermore, in the era where the Portal was inconceivable, no one had even thought of the issues inherent in first year starters who were both upperclassmen AND had zero previous familiarity with the program, coaches, terminology, checks, ad freaking infinitum – all the things that are ingrained into your psyche even if you’re ridden pine for two years prior to seeing the field if you came here as a TFr.
This leads to miscommunications, incorrect run fits, the wrong hot routes, missed blocks & blitz pickups, etc, etc, etc. All of that nets to catastrophic plays. Then there’s the total absence of playing for pride. You just got here, kind of hard to play for any pride other than personal. That last tiny measure of effort, like Carter’s desperate pursuit and miracle strip of endzone-bound Mark Ingram that began the Camback, simply isn’t there with guys who haven’t been sweating and bleeding for years.
So, first year starters are going to cost us games. How many does AU have and how to we compare to the rest of the SEC? The five programs with the most first year (TF + new xfer) players in the SEC are as follows (this is based on a 46 player two-deep for O and D, two-deeps taken from depth charts on OurLads.com):
MSU – 20 Noobs
SC – 19 Noobs
AU, OM, and ATM - Tied at 18 Noobs
Now, what about the other end of that? The five programs with the fewest Noobs in the SEC are:
UGA – 7
LSU – 10 (Four of the starting 11 and two key backups on D)
UTenn – 10 (One of whom is their emerging star QB)
UTex – 11
See a pattern here? Fifth is a five way tie, and every stinkin’ one of them is on our schedule, naturally.
Vandy – 14 (more grad xfers than any other team)
OU – 14 (Includes SIX of the starting 11 on O, and all but one OL, are new xfers, should be able to get pressure up the middle, IF we can just set the edge UPDATE EDIT - we didn't set the edge, and their veteran D finally got us on the pick 6)
AL – 14 (only six in the starting 23)
UK – 14 (Almost all on O, very experienced D, understand the low-scoring UGA game now? If we play conservative and don’t fumble, we might win this one)
Miz – 14 (Along with OM, they have to get it done this year, more on why in a moment)
It’s no coincidence that all of the top teams in the league are there, along with upstart Vandy and LSU, where the latter’s problems have been the D.
OK, so you get it now, this year will suck, why not fire CHF now and get it over with? What’s another $20M among friends?
Well, because the elite SEC programs have already built for the future, and three more are building, AU among them. Considering the five programs with the most True Freshmen + True 2nd year players (True Sophs and RSFR) in their starting 46, we have:
UF – 18 Call him Sunbelt Billy all you want, but he has a foundation here.
SC – 17 Beamer could turn them into a force (UPDATE: They are starting to jell, see OU.)
AU – 15 Beamer is one year ahead of CHF, but CHF has closed the gap fast; ours are split between TFr and 2nd year 7/8
LSU – 15 Inexperience on D has cost them, but the foundation is there
UGA and UTx – tied at 13, and most are 2nd team. All of the teams above these two start their 1st and 2nd year players out of necessity.
Where things get really telling is at the bottom of these rankings:
OM – dead last with five, ZERO of whom are TF. This year with a soft schedule is ride or die for Kiffen, and it gets worse. More in a sec.
Miz – One step above OM with 6, BUT again none are TF. They are not building for the long haul here.
MSU – 8, Lebby’s cupboard was as bare as any coach’s in recent memory
UTenn – 9, Their recruiting has to pick up THIS year, or they will begin another decline
AR – 10, the C and both T’s were new, which is why we got a lot of pressure. If we only knew how to set an edge, or could avoid rushing three on 3rd and forever…..
But, but, but, the TRANSFER PORTALLLLLLLLLL…… Well, a lot of those guys run out of eligibility quickly. Here are the top five teams by number of players who are theoretically out of eligibility this year:
OM – 28. TWENTY-EIGHT. Sixty-one percent of their starting 46, and they have ZERO TF coming up and only FIVE true 2nd year players in the two deep.
AU – 20, eight guys is a big step down, AND we rank 3rd in the league in TF+2nd Year players coming up, plus we have some guys RS’d, and CHF is recruiting lights out. Yes, we will have to hit the portal to gap fill again next year, but we are light years from OM. Call it 15 one-year portal guys + five TFr stars in the making next year, and we’re progressing. 15 One-year guys would put us in line with UTex. In this Top Five that’s really a Bottom Five, only AU and SC are building for the long term. UPDATE: Bear in mind that of these 20 players, 11 are first year xfer starters and another 8 are 2nd year xfer starters. We're not losing that much real experience.
SC – 18, Beamer with the one-year head start is building like CHF with 17 underclassmen coming up, but not at as high of a star-rating level. Still solid by USC historical standards.
Ark, Miz and UTn – 17 apiece, and all three lack for TF+2nd Year coming up, but Miz is in the worst shape with again zero TF in the two deep.
Looking at the other end of the league, bammer sadly only loses 6 this year, followed by ATM, UK, UGA and UF, the latter three at 12 apiece. You knew UGA would be good next year, but ATM, UK and UF will all be experienced teams. If UF stays the course with Napier, they may be rewarded next year.
So, all that to say, we will likely be better next year, but the schedule will likely be tougher as well with more experienced teams. Only Mizzou looks to be weaker based on the metrics here. It is in 2026, when today’s TF and 2nd year players will be upperclassmen, that we should be a force – if we get a QB. Until then, we are best served by circling the wagons and supporting our recruiting. This fits with the posts on here from insiders alluding to a "plan" and a schedule for improvement.
Not for this season though, we’re going to suck this year, so suck it up, Buttercup. Here’s why we will suck this year, and also why the hope is greater for the future than perhaps any time since the first year Gus took the reigns:
Those of you old enough to have watched the CPD years will be familiar with this old bit of Southern Coaching Wisdom – “Every freshman you start will cost you a game”. Well kids play earlier today than ever, and the superstars in the making – Cam Coleman anyone? – can win you a game too, but there is much truth in it.
Furthermore, in the era where the Portal was inconceivable, no one had even thought of the issues inherent in first year starters who were both upperclassmen AND had zero previous familiarity with the program, coaches, terminology, checks, ad freaking infinitum – all the things that are ingrained into your psyche even if you’re ridden pine for two years prior to seeing the field if you came here as a TFr.
This leads to miscommunications, incorrect run fits, the wrong hot routes, missed blocks & blitz pickups, etc, etc, etc. All of that nets to catastrophic plays. Then there’s the total absence of playing for pride. You just got here, kind of hard to play for any pride other than personal. That last tiny measure of effort, like Carter’s desperate pursuit and miracle strip of endzone-bound Mark Ingram that began the Camback, simply isn’t there with guys who haven’t been sweating and bleeding for years.
So, first year starters are going to cost us games. How many does AU have and how to we compare to the rest of the SEC? The five programs with the most first year (TF + new xfer) players in the SEC are as follows (this is based on a 46 player two-deep for O and D, two-deeps taken from depth charts on OurLads.com):
MSU – 20 Noobs
SC – 19 Noobs
AU, OM, and ATM - Tied at 18 Noobs
Now, what about the other end of that? The five programs with the fewest Noobs in the SEC are:
UGA – 7
LSU – 10 (Four of the starting 11 and two key backups on D)
UTenn – 10 (One of whom is their emerging star QB)
UTex – 11
See a pattern here? Fifth is a five way tie, and every stinkin’ one of them is on our schedule, naturally.
Vandy – 14 (more grad xfers than any other team)
OU – 14 (Includes SIX of the starting 11 on O, and all but one OL, are new xfers, should be able to get pressure up the middle, IF we can just set the edge UPDATE EDIT - we didn't set the edge, and their veteran D finally got us on the pick 6)
AL – 14 (only six in the starting 23)
UK – 14 (Almost all on O, very experienced D, understand the low-scoring UGA game now? If we play conservative and don’t fumble, we might win this one)
Miz – 14 (Along with OM, they have to get it done this year, more on why in a moment)
It’s no coincidence that all of the top teams in the league are there, along with upstart Vandy and LSU, where the latter’s problems have been the D.
OK, so you get it now, this year will suck, why not fire CHF now and get it over with? What’s another $20M among friends?
Well, because the elite SEC programs have already built for the future, and three more are building, AU among them. Considering the five programs with the most True Freshmen + True 2nd year players (True Sophs and RSFR) in their starting 46, we have:
UF – 18 Call him Sunbelt Billy all you want, but he has a foundation here.
SC – 17 Beamer could turn them into a force (UPDATE: They are starting to jell, see OU.)
AU – 15 Beamer is one year ahead of CHF, but CHF has closed the gap fast; ours are split between TFr and 2nd year 7/8
LSU – 15 Inexperience on D has cost them, but the foundation is there
UGA and UTx – tied at 13, and most are 2nd team. All of the teams above these two start their 1st and 2nd year players out of necessity.
Where things get really telling is at the bottom of these rankings:
OM – dead last with five, ZERO of whom are TF. This year with a soft schedule is ride or die for Kiffen, and it gets worse. More in a sec.
Miz – One step above OM with 6, BUT again none are TF. They are not building for the long haul here.
MSU – 8, Lebby’s cupboard was as bare as any coach’s in recent memory
UTenn – 9, Their recruiting has to pick up THIS year, or they will begin another decline
AR – 10, the C and both T’s were new, which is why we got a lot of pressure. If we only knew how to set an edge, or could avoid rushing three on 3rd and forever…..
But, but, but, the TRANSFER PORTALLLLLLLLLL…… Well, a lot of those guys run out of eligibility quickly. Here are the top five teams by number of players who are theoretically out of eligibility this year:
OM – 28. TWENTY-EIGHT. Sixty-one percent of their starting 46, and they have ZERO TF coming up and only FIVE true 2nd year players in the two deep.
AU – 20, eight guys is a big step down, AND we rank 3rd in the league in TF+2nd Year players coming up, plus we have some guys RS’d, and CHF is recruiting lights out. Yes, we will have to hit the portal to gap fill again next year, but we are light years from OM. Call it 15 one-year portal guys + five TFr stars in the making next year, and we’re progressing. 15 One-year guys would put us in line with UTex. In this Top Five that’s really a Bottom Five, only AU and SC are building for the long term. UPDATE: Bear in mind that of these 20 players, 11 are first year xfer starters and another 8 are 2nd year xfer starters. We're not losing that much real experience.
SC – 18, Beamer with the one-year head start is building like CHF with 17 underclassmen coming up, but not at as high of a star-rating level. Still solid by USC historical standards.
Ark, Miz and UTn – 17 apiece, and all three lack for TF+2nd Year coming up, but Miz is in the worst shape with again zero TF in the two deep.
Looking at the other end of the league, bammer sadly only loses 6 this year, followed by ATM, UK, UGA and UF, the latter three at 12 apiece. You knew UGA would be good next year, but ATM, UK and UF will all be experienced teams. If UF stays the course with Napier, they may be rewarded next year.
So, all that to say, we will likely be better next year, but the schedule will likely be tougher as well with more experienced teams. Only Mizzou looks to be weaker based on the metrics here. It is in 2026, when today’s TF and 2nd year players will be upperclassmen, that we should be a force – if we get a QB. Until then, we are best served by circling the wagons and supporting our recruiting. This fits with the posts on here from insiders alluding to a "plan" and a schedule for improvement.
A thread worth reading
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 9/23/23 at 10:09 pm
This thread on the AUFamily free board breaks down recruiting numbers and starters by class. The first post is eye-opening, but it's the graphs in about the 6th or 7th post down that really drive our grim situation home. LINK
I'm new here, this Chex/Jang thang....
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 9/22/23 at 8:23 am
Someone want to give the Reader's Digest version of this rivalry for all of us ITAT refugees? Oops, asylum seekers is the new PC term. And why does Jang's avatar keep changing to opposing teams?
Chex in particular is doing solid work over on SECRant on behalf of AU. AU "warned" by society for freedom from religion
Chex in particular is doing solid work over on SECRant on behalf of AU. AU "warned" by society for freedom from religion
OT - University Academic rankings released
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 9/18/23 at 8:28 am
US News just dropped their annual rankings for universities. In the past, you kind of had to take these US News rankings with a whole spoonful of salt, forget just the grain, because they were so easily gamed by universities looking to boost their ranking. UAT famously upped their selectivity ranking for a few years (before US News changed the criteria) by making their admissions process all but free and offering a $5 iTunes gift card to any kid who applied. They also did a lot of things straight out of Saban's recruiting book like literally paying elite students to come there while admitting marginal kids as "provisional freshmen" so as to avoid counting them against their average ACT/SAT/Class rank. They weren't the only university doing this, but they were among the best at it. AU would not even consider it, and UAT caught and even briefly passed us in the rankings for a few years there. There are still some things AU could do that are done by institutions in the top tier, but we stubbornly refuse to. We probably leave 10-20 spots on the table because of that.
Here's a list of SEC schools and their peers around the South, link to full list at the bottom. For reference, there are 439 universities in this category, which places AU in the top quarter. Top 10% - ie, top 40 or so - should be our goal. Out of current and future SEC members, Vandy, UF, and Texas make that cut with UGA and ATM knocking on the door.
#7 Duke
#18 Vanderbilt
#28 Florida
#24 UVA
#32 UT Austin
#33 GA Tech
#47 UGA
#47 TX A&M
#53 Florida St
#73 Tulane
#86 Clemson
#93 Auburn
#105 Tennessee
#124 Missouri
#124 Oklahoma
#124 South Car
#142 UAB
#159 Kentucky
#163 Mississippi
#170 UAT
#178 Arkansas
#185 LSU
#216 Miss St
Full List
Here's a list of SEC schools and their peers around the South, link to full list at the bottom. For reference, there are 439 universities in this category, which places AU in the top quarter. Top 10% - ie, top 40 or so - should be our goal. Out of current and future SEC members, Vandy, UF, and Texas make that cut with UGA and ATM knocking on the door.
#7 Duke
#18 Vanderbilt
#28 Florida
#24 UVA
#32 UT Austin
#33 GA Tech
#47 UGA
#47 TX A&M
#53 Florida St
#73 Tulane
#86 Clemson
#93 Auburn
#105 Tennessee
#124 Missouri
#124 Oklahoma
#124 South Car
#142 UAB
#159 Kentucky
#163 Mississippi
#170 UAT
#178 Arkansas
#185 LSU
#216 Miss St
Full List
Streaming options for the season
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 8/14/23 at 5:47 pm
I cut the cord years ago, and the only time I have a streaming service is during CFB season and sometimes for BB. I've done YouTube TV in the past, but haven't kept up with media deals at all this year.
Will YouTube TV still get all the AU and SEC games, or do I have to pay for something else too? Is YouTube the best deal?
Will YouTube TV still get all the AU and SEC games, or do I have to pay for something else too? Is YouTube the best deal?
xCTT and Manchin introduce PASS Act for NIL reform
Posted by TheRealTigerHorn on 7/26/23 at 10:05 am
Maybe not perfect, but a decent upgrade over where we are put together by an ex-Coach/Player and an ex-Player. PASS Act article
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