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Gerrymandering in New Jersey?
Posted on 12/13/18 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 12/13/18 at 12:23 pm
Two years ago, legislators hastily tried to pass a package of bills to give raises to their aides and others in exchange for letting former Gov. Chris Christie profit from a book while in office. Last year, Democratic leaders pushed through a measure to pad the pension of the former mayor of Camden, a key ally.
But the measure has faced fierce opposition from numerous independent and good-government groups that, together with Republicans, see it as a misguided effort by Democrats to entrench their power for decades to come.
The proposed amendment, SCR-152, would give legislative leaders more sway in redrawing the maps ahead of the next round of redistricting in 2021 and explicitly require that district boundaries reflect the results of the most recent statewide elections. In recent years, Democrats have outperformed Republicans.
Given opposition by a few Democratic lawmakers and the entire Republican caucus, it appears more likely that Democratic leaders will need votes both this year and next. They have scheduled the first votes for Monday — a few days after mandatory public hearings on Thursday at which lawmakers are likely to face blistering criticism. Representatives from more than 40 statewide organizations have announced their intention to travel to the Statehouse that day to try to block the measure.
The other crucial change in the proposed amendment — and the one that has attracted the ire of the independent and good-government groups — would embed a formula in the constitution requiring that at least 10 of 40 legislative districts in New Jersey meet a new “competitiveness” standard. The other districts would be split evenly between the two major parties.
The political makeup of the competitive districts would have to fall within 5 percentage points of the average result of the most recent elections for president, U.S. Senate and governor. That setup would likely give Democrats an advantage, since there are nearly 1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state and voters usually back Democrats more heavily in those elections compared with state legislative races.
So, for example, if Democrats received an average of 55 percent of the vote in those elections, at least 10 districts would have to have a partisan makeup where Democrats are expected to receive between 50 and 60 percent of the vote. Up to 15 more districts would favor Democrats by more than 60 percent, while Republicans would have an advantage in only 15 districts at most. LINK
But the measure has faced fierce opposition from numerous independent and good-government groups that, together with Republicans, see it as a misguided effort by Democrats to entrench their power for decades to come.
The proposed amendment, SCR-152, would give legislative leaders more sway in redrawing the maps ahead of the next round of redistricting in 2021 and explicitly require that district boundaries reflect the results of the most recent statewide elections. In recent years, Democrats have outperformed Republicans.
Given opposition by a few Democratic lawmakers and the entire Republican caucus, it appears more likely that Democratic leaders will need votes both this year and next. They have scheduled the first votes for Monday — a few days after mandatory public hearings on Thursday at which lawmakers are likely to face blistering criticism. Representatives from more than 40 statewide organizations have announced their intention to travel to the Statehouse that day to try to block the measure.
The other crucial change in the proposed amendment — and the one that has attracted the ire of the independent and good-government groups — would embed a formula in the constitution requiring that at least 10 of 40 legislative districts in New Jersey meet a new “competitiveness” standard. The other districts would be split evenly between the two major parties.
The political makeup of the competitive districts would have to fall within 5 percentage points of the average result of the most recent elections for president, U.S. Senate and governor. That setup would likely give Democrats an advantage, since there are nearly 1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state and voters usually back Democrats more heavily in those elections compared with state legislative races.
So, for example, if Democrats received an average of 55 percent of the vote in those elections, at least 10 districts would have to have a partisan makeup where Democrats are expected to receive between 50 and 60 percent of the vote. Up to 15 more districts would favor Democrats by more than 60 percent, while Republicans would have an advantage in only 15 districts at most. LINK
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