re: Kentucky Derby Prediction Thread

Really tough Derby field to predict this year.

A few thoughts:

- Orb really impresses me. His running style and stride (just behind the front runners + a long, powerful stride and finishing ability down the stretch) point to him being the in the mix at the line, especially considering his strong Florida Derby performance. With a really crowded field at Churchill it's nice to know he has already proven he can win even after being 5-wide at the turn. Orb is my personal pick to win.

- Lots of upfront speed in this Derby, which I think with a crowded field might hurt Verrazano'z chances. Goldencents, Falling Sky, Itsmyluckyday, Governor Charlie.. all have the potential to set a swift, unfathomable pace early on. Verrazano reminds me a lot of Uncle Mo 2 years ago .. undefeated, but unchallenged. Derby could be too much for him. Still would take a shot at him in some exotics and he should fetch a decent price.

- Revolutionary really is catching my eye based on his past performance and running style. I like that he is well-rested and that he has legit closing speed. Look for him to be around the middle on the backstretch. He probably would get edged out in a shorter distance by this field, but going 1 1/4 in Kentucky with his ability down the stretch means he could take the whole thing.

It is really rough

quote:

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@DRFPrivman: Idiots using a scissor lift/bucket near paddock just spooked horses. Orb kicking stall, #1 horse in race 1 fell over. Just dumb. #KyDerby

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Stupid people are everywhere. Orb was schooling.

I'm thinking about heading over after work Friday if a friend wants to go. Betting on my phone has been bad luck for me lately

I'm hoping for a bounce from Julia, but covering my arse and using her.

Julia, beholder, lucky, close hatches tri box. Flashy gray just scratched with a bruised heel.

Coming out of a years-long hiatus today.

Thinking Julia will bounce. Not high on the Pletcher horses this year, but I love Orb!

Also, glad Orb is okay after those idiots spooked him. People need to learn how to act around flighty animals.

Didn't Jay Privman tweet that another horse in Race 1 did flip? Some people...no common sense! Glad he's okay!

I really liked Emollient, bummed she won't run. Made some money on her in her last win.

And yes, Close Hatches should be good value! I'm kind of amused at how everyone is fully on the Julia bandwagon and is forgetting that some awesome fillies like Beholder are in this race.

Oh well, better odds for us.

It really is...more interesting than the Derby I think! I wonder if they'll tweak the system next year so that it'll be easier for a filly to get in the Derby.

Yeah, that whole situation is so ridiculous.

Would have loved to have seen Departing run in the Derby but I assume he'll head to the Preakness.

Oh yeah, definitely, Stall/Claiborne don't want to ruin him. Stall said he still wants the horse to be around at 6, so they're not going to push him. Much respect for people who actually want to do right by the horse.