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Correlation between NBA betting lines and efficiency statistics
Posted on 12/21/12 at 9:43 am
Posted on 12/21/12 at 9:43 am
I mentioned this in one of the older betting threads.. a day ago I set lines for today's NBA games based on efficiency statistics. I'll post my line in parenthesis and the actual line as it came out today
Raptors (-1) -3.5
Sixers (+2.5) +2.5
Celtics (-5) -5
Knicks (-7.5) -6 (fluctuating from -6 to -7)
Cavs (+4) +3.5
Grizzzlies (-10.5) -11
Spurs (-16) -14
Warriors (-13.5) -11
Pistons (-6.5) -6
Needless to say I definitely feel like the lines are related to efficiency statistics. When a team gets a higher line, I think there's an adjustment for the fact that reserves may come in early. example: Spurs 1H line is -8 (would be -16) but is -14 for the game. Public teams like Celtics/Lakers/Thunder/Heat obviously will always get inflated lines.
I dunno if any of this even matters though, but getting an idea of where the lines are coming from certainly doesn't hurt.
From that standpoint I feel it's primarily mathematical driven... and edges can come in evaluating certain matchups.
Raptors (-1) -3.5
Sixers (+2.5) +2.5
Celtics (-5) -5
Knicks (-7.5) -6 (fluctuating from -6 to -7)
Cavs (+4) +3.5
Grizzzlies (-10.5) -11
Spurs (-16) -14
Warriors (-13.5) -11
Pistons (-6.5) -6
Needless to say I definitely feel like the lines are related to efficiency statistics. When a team gets a higher line, I think there's an adjustment for the fact that reserves may come in early. example: Spurs 1H line is -8 (would be -16) but is -14 for the game. Public teams like Celtics/Lakers/Thunder/Heat obviously will always get inflated lines.
I dunno if any of this even matters though, but getting an idea of where the lines are coming from certainly doesn't hurt.
From that standpoint I feel it's primarily mathematical driven... and edges can come in evaluating certain matchups.
This post was edited on 12/21/12 at 9:46 am
Posted on 12/21/12 at 9:45 am to Ghazi
Can you skip the math and just give us some winners?
Posted on 12/21/12 at 9:49 am to lsu480
atm looking like Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, and possibly the Spurs.
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