re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?

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i.e. there isn't enough time for you to score three times (or two MORE times as the case may be).

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If you assume this then it doesn't matter what you do. But I don't think that's a fair assumption. You could have a chance at an onsides kick.

The argument to me is very simple. Sometimes you get the two point conversion, in which case an 8 pt deficit is a one possession game. Sometimes you don't get the 2PAT, in which case the 8 pt. deficit is a two possession game.

You gain a strategic advantage by knowing the number of possessions you'll need to tie/win the game. If you kick the PAT first, then it remains unknown.