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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:54 pm to slackster
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:54 pm to slackster
If assuming the success of the 2 point conversion, then technically it doesn't matter when you try it.
If we're assuming the failure of the 2 point conversion - which is kinda what this whole thread is about, I suppose - then I'd always rather fail with time left to adjust.
Failing on the 2nd TD seems infinitely more "deflating" since you probably just flat out lose if you miss it.
Fail on the first TD and your probability of win drops like a stone, sure, but at least you know what you need now.
I think we as fans always assume it's deflating because we feel deflated and we project that onto paid professionals.
If we're assuming the failure of the 2 point conversion - which is kinda what this whole thread is about, I suppose - then I'd always rather fail with time left to adjust.
Failing on the 2nd TD seems infinitely more "deflating" since you probably just flat out lose if you miss it.
Fail on the first TD and your probability of win drops like a stone, sure, but at least you know what you need now.
I think we as fans always assume it's deflating because we feel deflated and we project that onto paid professionals.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 4:55 pm
1
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:59 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Also, I haven't seen anyone mention this, and I doubt it has come up often, but it's worth adding to this thread I think.
If you're down 15, and the 2-pt conversion on the first TD is successful, then you now have the option to win the game with another 2-pt conversion. (especially if there's a situation where a penalty moves the ball closer to the goal line as we saw last night)
You go from a 50% chance to tie the game if you kick the EP on the first TD and save the 2 pt. conversion for the second TD, to a ~50% chance to WIN the game if you convert the 2 pt play successfully the first time.
That's a significant factor, IMO.
If you're down 15, and the 2-pt conversion on the first TD is successful, then you now have the option to win the game with another 2-pt conversion. (especially if there's a situation where a penalty moves the ball closer to the goal line as we saw last night)
You go from a 50% chance to tie the game if you kick the EP on the first TD and save the 2 pt. conversion for the second TD, to a ~50% chance to WIN the game if you convert the 2 pt play successfully the first time.
That's a significant factor, IMO.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 5:00 pm
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