re: According to the Keys to the White House, Trump will lose.

1. Party Mandate: If you only count the House, this is a flawed metric. - Biden

2. Contest - Trump

3. Incumbency - Trump

4. Third Party - Trump

5. Short-Term Economy - This one is invalid due to COVID

6. Long-Term Economy - Trump

7. Policy Change - Trump and this is NOT subjective. From the change in policy towards China to the USMCA to the changes to taxes, there have been sweeping policy changes.

8. Social Unrest - Biden, but this might be a huge disadvantage especially if the unrest can be tied to his party.

9. Scandal - Push. Biden is actually tainted with more scandal than Trump is.

10. Foreign/Military Failure - Trump

11. Foreign/Military Success - Trump. Between the killing of Al Baghdadi and the killing of Soulemani, this is not up for debate.

12. Incumbent charisma - Trump and your analytical and observational skills are flawed if you think otherwise.

13. Challenger charisma - Trump

I see NINE of the keys in President Trump's favor and he could flip at least two of them in the coming months.

If you look at these and compare Trump to Clinton in 2016 Trump held between 9-12 of those keys. He STILL hold that same number.