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re: Poll: Majority of Republicans think Trump is a better president than Lincoln
Posted on 11/30/19 at 6:54 am to Sentrius
Posted on 11/30/19 at 6:54 am to Sentrius
Some interesting things hidden in that table.
Republicans constituted less than 30% of the sample size.
603 of the responders were from the South, 338 from the West, and less than 300 from the North or East.
Despite sampling 512 Democrats only 471 in the poll claimed to vote for Hilary in 16. Despite only having 410 Republican voters 437 claimed voting for Trump.
76% of the poll were registered voters, but only 64% mentioned voting Hilary or Trump.
Likely implications:
Donald Trump being considered better than Lincoln is probably overstated in this poll due to small sample size and overrepresented Southerners.
Democrats had poor turnout in 2016, and probably didn't have a ton of Independent appeal.
More people voted for Trump than said they were Republican. By definition he was pulling in Independent voters, and likely had good Republican turnout.
The disparity in registered voters to actual voters implies people either stayed home for the polls or didn't want to state who they voted for. Given the D and I slant of this poll, both of these are likely positive for Trump.
Mitigating Factor:
1500 is a shite sample size for a political poll.
Republicans constituted less than 30% of the sample size.
603 of the responders were from the South, 338 from the West, and less than 300 from the North or East.
Despite sampling 512 Democrats only 471 in the poll claimed to vote for Hilary in 16. Despite only having 410 Republican voters 437 claimed voting for Trump.
76% of the poll were registered voters, but only 64% mentioned voting Hilary or Trump.
Likely implications:
Donald Trump being considered better than Lincoln is probably overstated in this poll due to small sample size and overrepresented Southerners.
Democrats had poor turnout in 2016, and probably didn't have a ton of Independent appeal.
More people voted for Trump than said they were Republican. By definition he was pulling in Independent voters, and likely had good Republican turnout.
The disparity in registered voters to actual voters implies people either stayed home for the polls or didn't want to state who they voted for. Given the D and I slant of this poll, both of these are likely positive for Trump.
Mitigating Factor:
1500 is a shite sample size for a political poll.
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