QB Draft Opinion

You are looking at it wrong


Outside of mahomes last year (incredible year).. the next 14 qbs were all within 50pts of each other (depending on scoring obviously)

It's also very hard to project who is going to be a top QB the following year. Mahomes was a rare outlier season with an unsustainable TD% (even though he is clearly a superstar going forward).

Paying for QB is just a waste. Matt Ryan finished as QB3 last year and was going as QB14.

quote:

---

Paying for QB is just a waste. Matt Ryan finished as QB3 last year and was going as QB14.

---

This argument always strikes me as kind of silly.

Sure Ryan had a great year, but you had to pick the right one. Had you waited and took QB 13 or 15 you likely were struggling at the position all year.

I don’t remember the preseason rankings but according to Sleeper’s stats from last year QB13 ended up as Dak and QB15 was Cam.

Both of those guys ended up TWO HUNDRED points behind Mahomes.

Even with a huge regression by PM he’s still clearly the most valuable at his position. And QB isn’t a very volatile position honestly. Luck, Watson both finished top 5 where they were drafted and Rodgers and Russell were top 9.

I’d argue Ryan going from 14 to 2 is just as big of an outlier as PM repeating as QB1 or 2.


Obviously if it was as easy as taking a late guy like Ryan knowing you’d get a top guy everyone would do it.

But you could just as easily wait and get stuck with a shitty Stafford or Winston as some stud like Ryan or Big Ben.


Taking a QB early isn’t riskier than any other position. It all comes down to how you fill out the rest of your roster.

Maybe you walk a tighter line but you can also be taking valuable position players in the middle to late rounds while teams are scrambling taking often more than one QB to hope they hit on one.


OP isn’t wrong. Points are points and the top 4 QBs last year were all still at least over 50 points better than number 9 or below.


That is very valuable no matter how you slice it. You still have to pick the right one, but that’s true for any position and I’d argue QBs are often the easiest to predict over RBs or WRs.

quote:

---

The differential in PPG between Q1 and QB20 is not that great.

---

That’s an inaccurate statement that gets regurgitated because it’s been in magazines/on TV/podcasts for so long.


There was no bigger point differential than there was from QB1 to QB2 last year, much less QB 20.

The top 4 QBs were all well above the rest of the position by several points per game.


The difference likely won’t be as great this year, but Mahomes and the other top QBs are as safe as any other position you can pick.

I just draft a cheap QB with potential upside.

If my guy does not hit, then I just stream someone else. Since 2011, the guy who finished as QB1 has averaged QB17 the following year. But yeah, go for a position where everyone has a stacked option.

quote:

---

Since 2011, the guy who finished as QB1 has averaged QB17 the following year. But yeah, go for a position where everyone has a stacked option.

---

Not sure where you heard/misheard that, but that is a ridiculously incorrect statement

quote:

---

That’s an inaccurate statement that gets regurgitated because it’s been in magazines/on TV/podcasts for so long.

---

LOL! Ok. I'll play.

Point was the value at QB is very deep this year. So much value later in the draft. Mahomes went in round 10 in one of my leagues last year.

The goal is to reduce risk in the early rounds. The success rates for QBs never gets that low throughout the draft whereas you see sharp declines in RB and TE (after the "Big 3") production after the 3rd, particularly the top tier RBs.

Here's the differences in PPG (sorry for the formatting) of the top 20 per position through a 16 game season using a projection from a service I use (Football Guys):

Pos Dif (1-20)
RB 9.96
TE 9.87
WR 5.97
QB 5.23
K 2.09
DEF 1.74

The difference between QB1 and QB20 is 5.2 ppg.
Rank FantPt Name PPG
1 393.3 Patrick Mahomes II 24.58
20 309.7 Jimmy Garoppolo 19.35

Dif: 5.2

You wouldn't probably get Jimmy G (19.35 PPG) for your first QB, but it illustrates the point. If you looked at QB 12-14 as an example, it's an even smaller PPG differential but you're still going to probably see around 20 PPG in production:

Pos Rank FantPt Name PPG / Dif
QB 12 325.2 Drew Brees 20.33 / 4.3
QB 13 324.3 Lamar Jackson 20.27 / 4.3
QB 14 320.6 Ben Roethlisberger 20.04 / 4.5

Dak Prescott (QB18) is going in the 10th typically and will still give you a potential 19.8 PPG.

Conversely, after the top 20 RBs are gone by the 3rd round, You're looking at the likes of Phillip Lindsay (12.7 PPG) or Kenyan Drake (11.7 PPG) in the late 4th or early 5th typically.

Not saying you don't consider values in a draft if it's staring you in the face. If a bunch of RBs are taken through the round you almost have to consider snagging a top tier WR because the value rises. Depends on how big the league is, format, scoring etc. It's just tougher to recover at RB in the later rounds.

It's still sound advice to wait for QBs generally until at least round 7-8, but value can be had past the 10th as well.

I rarely draft a QBs in the first 6 rounds and it seems to have worked over the years. Each his own. Debating this kind of stuff is what makes it fun and we all look forward to this time of year!

There are clearly be "difference makers". A Kelce or a Mahomes helped a lot of people win championships last year. Geting a top tier TE in the first 2-3 rounds (Kelsey/Ertz/Kittle) is even in vogue this year.

I had Brees and Rodgers last year in two different leagues last year and took them because they went so late, so at some point you have to pull the trigger. I liked having their stability vs. erratic QBs like Winston or Big Ben.

Mahomes is clearly QB1 this year. While some project regression, with Hill back now, he could very well have another huge year. It's all for fun (most of the time!) anyway, so people can go for it if they want. The mocks I've done where I tried QBs like that early just didn't come out that great. But if you could get a Mahomes with a top tier WR and one of the "Big 3" at TE, it'd be interesting to see how it shaped up later on with the other picks. Could be a huge difference.

I was in 6 leagues last season and not a single team with Mahomes made the championship game.

I made it in 3 leagues with Lamar Jackson.

quote:

---

At the end of the day it’s easier to get 30 points from Ryan’s fitzpatrick in week 14 than it is to get 10 points for Orleans Darkwa

---

Exactly, week to week QB streaming is a tried and true strategy.

quote:

---

Simple value prop, and taking Mahommes too early only makes sense if you are willing to bet everything on him having the same season two years in a row, which history tells you is a foolish bet. If he doesnt outscore the QB2 by a boatload, then it was a poor value play.

---

Yup, literally every QB this century to have a 7.0% or greater TD% has had that rate decrease the following year (check out Mike Clay on Twitter for proof). Mahomes and Wilson are extremely likely to be see their TD% decrease.