re: Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?

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I'd bet a statistical analysis would give pretty even odds both ways. I think the only people who are wrong are those who think one path was definitively better than the other.

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Actually, the odds of winning are identical whether up by 7 or up by 3 with 2 minutes left. See my previous link. So the issue is whether scoring 3 is more likely than scoring 7. In this case, at the distance-- probably equal, considering our kickers' performances that day. Once the kick was made-- it was the right call, if playing the odds. AND--

I say that when, personally, I would have gone for the TD before I saw the statistics.

It's like hitting on 16 when the dealer is showing a 5. You may get lucky every now and then by taking a hit, but odds tell you to stand pat.