re: Trump to address nation on Afghanistan

I think there is a split among Republican strategists on what to do in Afghanistan, but that feelings are not very strong either way.

Trump has clout to lose, and nothing to gain, in Afghanistan. But (A) that would be true for any other President too, and (B) the political risks to Trump from Afghanistan are relatively small.

If he pulls out too quickly, he could face a backlash accusing him of doing what Obama did in Iraq in 2011, but that's unlikely, because if he pulls out, he will probably trust his generals to execute a much more gradual tapering. (The political situation/excuse that Obama used for exiting Iraq immediately doesn't apply to Afghanistan.)

If he ramps up too much and gets burned with casualty lists, it will hurt him with his base, but his base isn't going anywhere, and one could even argue that this would hurt more mainstream hawkish Republicans more than Trump.

So while this is a very tough decision, it is unlikely to be anything ultimately determinative of his political legacy. There are so many bigger issues that he will be judged against. On foreign policy, there is Iran, North Korea, and Russia... and now Pakistan too, because the Kashmir situation is getting hot again. (China is our best tool to use against both North Korea and Pakistan, by the way ... and maybe even against Russia at the UNSC.)

On domestic policy, there is health care, and then there is everything else. Not looking too good at the moment. One the one hand, it's not really his fault that he doesn't have 60 votes in the Senate. On the other hand, he hasn't helped matters any, and he was the person who raised expectations unrealistically without having any organized plan for legislative lobbying efforts.