re: ARG Poll: Kasich leads Trump by double digits among likely GOP primary voters in NH

Trump was the first Republican in forever to win PA, MI and WI and came damn close to winning MN and you think he is having base issues there? He won the Nevada primary by a landslide and you think that state is an issue for him?

You need to look at it this way. You have the west coast states highlighted but those states are at the end of the primary process and it will be decided by then. Colorado is a ballot delegate state so the NeverTrump crowd might have a foothold there. Utah didn't matter last time.

It goes like this:

Iowa - Easy Trump win
New Hampshire - Who knows but for your argument lets say Kasich wins
South Carolina - Easy Trump win
Nevada - Easy Trump win

So Kasich is down 3-1 going into Super Tuesday which consists of

Oklahoma - Easy Trump win
Texas - Easy Trump win
Arkansas - Easy Trump win
Alabama - Easy Trump win
Tennessee - Easy Trump win
Georgia - Easy Trump win
Minnesota - Easy Trump win

Lets go ahead and give Kasich Vermont, Massachusetts, Alaska and Virginia.

So Trump is up 10-5 after the first 15 states. You think the Kasich backers will continue to throw money his way? Let's say they do. Next 4 states up are Louisiana, Kansas, Maine and Kentucky. Trump will win 3 of those 4. Trump is now up 13-6.

Next 4 states are Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi and Michigan. 4 more Trump states. Trump is now up 17-6. Does Kasich stay in like he did last time for Ohio? Let's say he does. Trump wins Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina and Kasich wins Ohio. Scoreboard is now 21-7. Math says Kasich can't win.