re: would a loss to State cost Miles his job?

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In order to fire him they'd have to have a backup plan.

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If you mean they would have to already know who they will hire to replace him and have that person on board and ready to sign, then no, they don't have to have that. Alabama didn't have that when they fired Shula, and they wound up with Saban. There are many other examples. Sure, it's nice to have the new coach already lined up when you fire the old one, but it's certainly not necessary.

If you know you have to get rid of a coach, there is absolutely no benefit in waiting to do it or announce it. Announcing it early in the season, on the other hand, gives LSU a head start on any other programs who will be searching for new coaches.